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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
GiantsNew York22
BY 3final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia25
New York Giants 22 at Philadelphia Eagles 25. Final.
Eagles -4.5 no coverU 49 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 12
Philadelphia Eagles 25, Giants 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:39, 4th and 1, on Nelson Agholor — 25.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:39 · 4th and 1
Nelson Agholor
Eagles
(2:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to NYG 30 for 12 yards (35-C.Riley).
Eagles closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:39, Eagles +25.3% win probability on one snap.
25.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Corey ClementEaglesQ4 13:25(13:25) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 30-C.Clement to NYG 38 for 23 yards (54-O.Vernon).
11.5pts
Rhett EllisonGiantsQ4 7:37(7:37) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 85-R.Ellison to PHI 17 for 29 yards (24-C.Graham). PHI-24-C.Graham was injured during the play.
12.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 12 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 11 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 1 giveaway.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Giants161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(2:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to NYG 30 for 12 yards (35-C.Riley).
Swing +25.3 for EaglesExpected points +2.48 for EaglesThe model had Giants 5 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:39PHI +25% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to NYG 30 for 12 yards (35-C.Riley).
4th · 7:37PHI +12% win prob(7:37) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 85-R.Ellison to PHI 17 for 29 yards (24-C.Graham). PHI-24-C.Graham was injured during the play.
4th · 13:25PHI +11% win prob(13:25) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 30-C.Clement to NYG 38 for 23 yards (54-O.Vernon).
4th · 14:56NYG +10% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 12 for -10 yards (56-C.Long).
4th · 8:22PHI +10% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham to PHI 46 for 19 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).
4th · 0:25PHI +9% win prob(:25) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
4th · 5:09
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 43-yard field goal with 0:25 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:44Saquon Barkley·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning · two-point no good+66–0
1st3:15Aldrick Rosas·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+39–0
2nd9:38Aldrick Rosas·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+312–0
2nd5:22Jake Elliott·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+312–3
4th5:52Aldrick Rosas·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+322–22
4th0:25Jake Elliott·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+322–25
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Giants4–4Eagles
402Total yards346
6.9Yards per play5.7
43%Success rate52%
42%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
19First downs19
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Giants: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.14Eagles: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Giants: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.29Eagles: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Giants: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.00Eagles: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 58 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Eagles’s 61 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Eagles 3.
NoteGiants outgained Eagles 402-346 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
PHI's pass rate over expected, −8.1 pts, is past their previous low of −3.7 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 11.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 69.4% in week 11 against 48.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
NYG's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.4 pts in week 11 against +2.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles12.5%
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.1 pts, 10.9 points below their season mean of 2.8 pts and 2.1 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass+25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to NYG 30 for 12 yards (35-C.Riley).
Q4 2:39 · Eagles · 4th & 1 at NYG 42 · gained 12 · +2.48 EP · +25.2% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 87 yards from the NYG 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
747
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0558%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2573%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2744%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2046%
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.62100%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.4120%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Giants6Eagles0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 13
Drive ended4 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 48
Punt1 play
Giants9Eagles0
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 6 to the Eagles 7
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Giants 46
2nd quarter48 plays
Giants12Eagles0
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Eagles 33
Giants12Eagles3
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Giants 23
Giants18Eagles3
Giants19Eagles3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 49
Giants19Eagles9
Giants19Eagles11
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 15
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Eagles 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 48
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 13
Giants19Eagles14
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 47 to the Giants 5
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 37
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Giants 48
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays
Giants19Eagles20
Giants19Eagles22
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Giants 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Giants22Eagles22
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Eagles 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Giants22Eagles25
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
