2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field

New York Giants

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -4.5 no coverU 49 ✓Eagles closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:39, PHI +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:39NYG — PHI PHI ball · 4th & 1PHI 58%

(2:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to NYG 30 for 12 yards (35-C.Riley).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:39PHI +25% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to NYG 30 for 12 yards (35-C.Riley).
Q4 · 7:37PHI +12% win prob(7:37) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 85-R.Ellison to PHI 17 for 29 yards (24-C.Graham). PHI-24-C.Graham was injured during the play.
Q4 · 13:25PHI +11% win prob(13:25) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 30-C.Clement to NYG 38 for 23 yards (54-O.Vernon).
Q4 · 14:56NYG +10% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 12 for -10 yards (56-C.Long).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Eagles
Offensive plays	58	61
Total yards	402 (edge)	346
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.14
Success rate	43%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.00
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Giants outgained Eagles 402–346 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

26/37, 297 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

8.2 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

20/28, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.9 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

13 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Josh AdamsRB

22 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

7/8 for 91 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Odell BeckhamWR

5/9 for 85 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 25	11	80	4:22	Touchdown
2	PHI	PHI 29	6	29	2:21	Punt
3	PHI	NYG 6	11	92	5:04	Turnover on downs
4	PHI	PHI 24	7	8	3:13	Punt
5	NYG	NYG 13	10	77	5:26	Turnover on downs
6	PHI	PHI 30	8	46	4:15	Turnover on downs
7	NYG	NYG 25	5	75	1:13	Touchdown
8	PHI	PHI 25	8	74	3:02	Touchdown
9	NYG	NYG 46	7	27	1:00	Interception
10	PHI	PHI 27	1	0	0:04	End of half
11	PHI	PHI 25	10	23	2:39	Punt
12	NYG	NYG 10	4	-4	2:14	Punt
13	PHI	NYG 47	8	37	3:18	Turnover on downs
14	NYG	NYG 25	7	7	2:22	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 34	7	11	4:25	Punt
16	NYG	NYG 22	4	-10	0:57	Punt
17	PHI	PHI 39	8	63	3:54	Touchdown
18	NYG	NYG 33	9	56	4:22	Turnover on downs
19	PHI	PHI 25	11	50	5:27	Turnover on downs
20	NYG	NYG 34	4	7	0:22	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 92 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	26/37	297	1	1	2	8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	13	101	7.8	1	1.5
Wayne Gallman	5	25	5.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	5	9	85	0	24%	2.6
Rhett Ellison	4	6	77	0	16%	4.8
Saquon Barkley	7	8	41	1	22%	2.0
Sterling Shepard	4	6	37	0	16%	0.6
Russell Shepard	1	1	29	0	3%	3.2
Bennie Fowler	2	3	23	0	8%	1.3
Elijhaa Penny	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.5
Corey Coleman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Wayne Gallman	2	2	-2	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Landon Collins	7	2	0.0	0
Curtis Riley	5	0	0.0	0
Michael Thomas	3	1	0.0	0
Alec Ogletree	2	2	1.0	1
B.J. Goodson	2	1	0.0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	3	0	0.0	0
Tae Davis	3	0	1.0	0
Grant Haley	3	0	0.0	1
B.J. Hill	3	0	0.0	1
Janoris Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	20/28	236	1	0	3	8.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Adams	22	84	3.8	1	-0.9
Corey Clement	5	45	9.0	0	2.4
Carson Wentz	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	7	8	91	1	29%	8.7
Alshon Jeffery	3	3	39	0	11%	2.6
Dallas Goedert	3	4	33	0	14%	1.0
Corey Clement	2	2	31	0	7%	2.2
Golden Tate	4	8	30	0	29%	-1.4
Nelson Agholor	1	1	12	0	4%	2.5
Josh Adams	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Jordan Matthews	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Corey Graham	7	1	0	0
De'Vante Bausby	5	2	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	6	1	0	0
Nigel Bradham	2	5	0	0
Nathan Gerry	3	3	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	5	1	1	1
Chandon Sullivan	3	0	0	0
Brandon Graham	1	1	0	0
Fletcher Cox	2	0	0	0
D.J. Alexander	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -4.5
Closing total: 49
NYG moneyline: +192
PHI moneyline: -215

Eagles closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49; the game landed 47 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: NYG 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Pat Shurmur vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.