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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
RaidersOakland17
BY 17final margin
RavensBaltimore34
Oakland Raiders 17 at Baltimore Ravens 34. Final.
Ravens -13 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 12
Baltimore Ravens 34, Raiders 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:26, 2nd and 7, on D.Martin — 12.7 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:26 · 2nd and 7
D.Martin
Raiders
(9:26) (Shotgun) 28-D.Martin right guard to BAL 01 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 99-M.Judon).
Ravens closed -13 and covered, winning by 17.
Baltimore Ravens 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:26, Raiders +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.MartinRavensQ1 8:46(8:46) 77-K.Miller reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle to BAL 01 for no gain (57-C.Mosley; 32-E.Weddle). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley), RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at BAL -1. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 77-K.Miller and 77-K.Miller reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ1 4:13(4:13) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones to LV 39 for 24 yards (50-N.Morrow). PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 37.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Raiders163 of 172 plays carry both curves
(9:26) (Shotgun) 28-D.Martin right guard to BAL 01 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 99-M.Judon).
Swing −12.7 for RavensExpected points −0.81 for RavensThe model had Raiders 35 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:26BAL +13% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 28-D.Martin right guard to BAL 01 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 99-M.Judon).
1st · 8:46OAK +10% win prob(8:46) 77-K.Miller reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle to BAL 01 for no gain (57-C.Mosley; 32-E.Weddle). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley), RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at BAL -1. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 77-K.Miller and 77-K.Miller reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:13BAL +9% win prob(4:13) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones to LV 39 for 24 yards (50-N.Morrow). PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 37.
1st · 0:52BAL +7% win prob(:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to LV 09, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-36-C.Clark.
3rd · 5:15BAL +7% win prob(5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-24-B.Carr, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 13:01
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cyrus Jones's 70-yard return touchdown with 13:01 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
3 of 3 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Ravens13.5%
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was BAL's early-down pass rate, 37.0% against a season mean of 50.7% — and BAL swings 14.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Oakland Raiders
53 dressed · 7 never used
70Kelechi OsemeleG · Every snap100%58 snaps
75Brandon ParkerT · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%58 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%58 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%58 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Full-time97%56 snaps
82Jordy NelsonWR · Full-time90%52 snaps
88Marcell AtemanWR · Full-time83%48 snaps
10Seth RobertsWR · Heavy rotation67%39 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation55%32 snaps
28Doug MartinRB · Rotational48%28 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Rotational45%26 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Rotational33%19 snaps
86Lee SmithTE · Rotational29%17 snaps
33DeAndre WashingtonRB · Situational14%8 snaps
41Keith SmithFB · Situational10%6 snaps
16Johnny HoltonWR · Situational9%5 snaps
68David SharpeT · Situational7%4 snaps
17Dwayne HarrisWR · Situational3%2 snaps
14Keon HatcherWR · Situational3%2 snaps
2AJ McCarronQB · Situational3%2 snaps
97Clinton McDonaldDT · Situational2%1 snap
76Jon FelicianoG · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Leon HallCBFadol BrownDEDenver KirklandGEmmanuel LamurOLBJustin MurrayOTIan SilbermanTMartavis BryantWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Townsend punts−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:01) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 52 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:01 · Raiders · 4th & 12 at LV 18 · gained nothing · -4.91 EP · −14.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 81 yards from the LV 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
665
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0340%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1173%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12+0.5217%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.4067%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4680%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Raiders6Ravens0
Raiders7Ravens0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Ravens 1
Raiders7Ravens3
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Raiders 29
Punt6 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Raiders 47
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Raiders7Ravens9
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Raiders 20
Raiders7Ravens10
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 44
Raiders7Ravens13
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Raiders 7
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 41
Intercepted3 plays
Raiders10Ravens13
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Ravens 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Raiders 28
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Raiders10Ravens19
Raiders10Ravens20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Raiders 5
Raiders16Ravens20
Raiders17Ravens20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Ravens 16
The period ended12 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Raiders 32
4th quarter40 plays
Raiders17Ravens26
Raiders17Ravens27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 3
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 26
Raiders17Ravens33
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 38
Raiders17Ravens34
Punt6 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Raiders 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -13
Closing total
42
Raiders moneyline
+524
Ravens moneyline
-691
Ravens closed -13 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 42; the game landed 51 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 54°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs John Harbaugh
OAK +7% win prob
(13:01) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 52 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:22BAL +6% win prob(10:22) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 86-L.Smith to BAL 7 for 30 yards (24-B.Carr).
2nd · 1:08OAK +5% win prob(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left intended for 15-M.Crabtree INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Gilchrist (21-G.Conley) at LV -5. Touchback.
