2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver BroncosWinner

PIT -3 upsetU 47.5 ✓Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 10:47, DEN +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:47PIT — DEN PIT ball · 1st & 10PIT 56%

(10:47) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-S.Harris].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:47DEN +26% win prob(10:47) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-S.Harris].
Q4 · 1:07PIT +25% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 96-S.Harris at DEN 0. Touchback.
Q4 · 9:22DEN +14% win prob(9:22) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:03DEN +12% win prob(:03) 78-A.Villanueva reported in as eligible. (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell pass short right to 78-A.Villanueva for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Broncos
Offensive plays	76	50
Total yards	527 (edge)	311
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	6.2
Expected points added / play	0.05	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	82%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06	0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Steelers outgained Broncos 527–311 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

41/56, 462 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

11.3 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

15/28, 197 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.9 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

14 att, 110 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

13 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

13/17 for 189 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Emmanuel SandersWR

7/12 for 86 yds, 1 TD

43% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	5	5	1:29	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 23	10	52	3:55	Turnover on downs
3	DEN	DEN 38	8	49	3:10	Turnover on downs
4	PIT	PIT 25	13	74	6:37	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 20	8	32	3:00	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 21	9	50	5:20	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 25	8	70	3:02	Touchdown
8	PIT	PIT 25	14	75	3:27	Touchdown
9	PIT	PIT 25	6	12	2:03	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 27	6	20	2:10	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 3	2	97	0:15	Touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 25	5	2	0:58	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 23	6	30	3:27	Interception
14	DEN	PIT 43	3	43	0:37	Touchdown
15	PIT	PIT 25	6	16	1:10	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 10	4	2	1:04	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 37	5	40	3:16	Fumble
18	DEN	DEN 21	12	84	5:43	Touchdown
19	PIT	PIT 25	7	27	2:07	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 16	4	4	2:44	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 44	10	54	3:23	Interception
22	DEN	DEN 20	3	0	1:03	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 97 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	41/56	462	1	2	2	11.3
Chris Boswell	1/1	2	1	0	0	4.0
Antonio Brown	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	13	53	4.1	-0.1
Ben Roethlisberger	2	18	9.0	1.9
Ryan Switzer	1	4	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	13	17	189	1	29%	9.6
Ryan Switzer	6	8	67	0	14%	4.8
Antonio Brown	9	13	67	0	22%	-10.0
James Conner	4	4	42	0	7%	-1.5
Jesse James	4	4	35	0	7%	3.0
Vance McDonald	3	5	27	0	9%	0.3
Xavier Grimble	1	1	23	0	2%	-4.9
Jaylen Samuels	1	2	12	0	3%	1.3
Alejandro Villanueva	1	1	2	1	2%	4.0
James Washington	0	3	0	0	5%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Terrell Edmunds	8	1	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	1	3	0.5	0
Jon Bostic	3	1	0.0	0
Sean Davis	2	1	0.0	0
Joe Haden	3	0	0.0	1
Cameron Heyward	2	1	0.5	1
L.J. Fort	2	1	0.0	0
Vince Williams	3	0	1.0	0
Tyson Alualu	1	1	0.0	0
Coty Sensabaugh	2	0	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	15/28	197	2	0	2	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	14	110	7.9	1	4.6
Royce Freeman	6	17	2.8	0	-2.4
Case Keenum	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	7	12	86	1	43%	2.0
Jeff Heuerman	2	3	44	0	11%	1.9
Matt LaCosse	3	4	34	1	14%	2.8
Courtland Sutton	1	4	14	0	14%	-0.4
DaeSean Hamilton	1	2	13	0	7%	0.2
Devontae Booker	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.1
Brian Parker	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Todd Davis	6	3	0	0
Justin Simmons	6	2	0	0
Bradley Roby	6	0	0	1
Josey Jewell	4	2	0	0
Chris Harris	6	0	1	2
Will Parks	2	3	0	1
Bradley Chubb	1	3	0	0
Tramaine Brock	3	0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	1	1	0	0
Brendan Langley	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3
Closing total: 47.5
PIT moneyline: -164
DEN moneyline: +148

Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 41 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: PIT 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Vance Joseph