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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Final
SteelersPittsburgh17
BY 7final margin
BroncosDenver24
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 at Denver Broncos 24. Final.
Steelers -3 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 12
Denver Broncos 24, Steelers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:47, 1st and 10, on JuJu Smith-Schuster — 25.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:47 · 1st and 10
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Steelers
(10:47) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-S.Harris].
U 47.5 ✓
Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 10:47, Steelers +25.6% win probability on one snap.
25.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Phillip LindsayBroncosQ4 9:22(9:22) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.5pts
Shelby HarrisBroncosQ4 1:07(1:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 96-S.Harris at DEN 0. Touchback.
24.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Broncos at 3 of 10 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Steelers166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(10:47) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-S.Harris].
Swing −25.6 for BroncosExpected points −7.59 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 12 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:47DEN +26% win prob(10:47) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-S.Harris].
4th · 1:07PIT +25% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 96-S.Harris at DEN 0. Touchback.
4th · 9:22DEN +14% win prob(9:22) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:03DEN +12% win prob(:03) 78-A.Villanueva reported in as eligible. (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell pass short right to 78-A.Villanueva for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00PIT +12% win prob(15:00) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 85-X.Grimble to DEN 1 for 23 yards (34-W.Parks). FUMBLES (34-W.Parks), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
4th · 2:49DEN +11% win prob(2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at DEN 20 for 19 yards (41-I.Yiadom).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Phillip Lindsay's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 9:22 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:31Brandon McManus·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
2nd6:34Chris Boswell·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–3
2nd3:33Matt LaCosse·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+73–10
2nd0:03Alejandro Villanueva·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Chris Boswellfrom Chris Boswell+710–10
3rd10:47JuJu Smith-Schuster·97-yd TD catch97-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+717–10
3rd5:37Emmanuel Sanders·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+717–17
4th9:22Phillip Lindsay·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBroncos
Steelers5–2Broncos
527Total yards311
6.9Yards per play6.2
51%Success rate42%
43%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays6
25First downs17
2Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Steelers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.10Broncos: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.10Broncos: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Steelers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.11Broncos: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 76 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against Broncos’s 50 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Broncos 4.
NoteSteelers outgained Broncos 527-311 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, +16.4 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 78.7%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
PIT's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.8% in week 11 against 13.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos8.1%
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 16.4 pts, 7.9 points above their season mean of 8.5 pts and 1.2 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+27% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:47) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-S.Harris].
Q3 10:47 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 3 · gained 97 · +7.59 EP · +26.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 97 yards from the PIT 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
835
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1287%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.0852%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.4569%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.3813%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6-0.1383%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3783%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.0740%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+1.79100%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
No good11 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Broncos 30
Steelers0Broncos3
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Steelers 16
The period ended14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Broncos 27
2nd quarter47 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Steelers 48
Steelers3Broncos3
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Broncos 23
Steelers3Broncos9
Steelers3Broncos10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Steelers 10
Offense on the fieldTwo tight ends, one punter, one long snapper, one lineman and one kickerDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and two backsPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Steelers9Broncos10
Steelers10Broncos10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Broncos 2
3rd quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 47
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Steelers16Broncos10
Steelers17Broncos10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Broncos 47
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Steelers17Broncos16
Steelers17Broncos17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Steelers 5
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 12
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Broncos 40
4th quarter40 plays
Steelers17Broncos23
Steelers17Broncos24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Steelers 2
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Broncos 48
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Broncos 2
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -3
Closing total
47.5
Steelers moneyline
-164
Broncos moneyline
+148
Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 41 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 39°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Vance Joseph
3rd · 6:19PIT +10% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris [96-S.Harris] at DEN 42. 25-C.Harris to PIT 43 for 15 yards (76-C.Okorafor).
3rd · 6:07DEN +9% win prob(6:07) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders to PIT 5 for 38 yards (23-J.Haden).
