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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium
30
27
Seattle Seahawks 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:45, SEA +31% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:45) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Seahawks | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 58 | 57 |
| Total yards | 400 | 476 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.9 | 8.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.29 (edge) | 0.20 |
| Success rate | 40% | 58% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 55% | 54% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.66 (edge) | 0.37 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.17 | 0.00 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/13 (edge) | 4/9 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 | 11 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 | 24 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
22/31, 339 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
21.5 expected points added · +18.4% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
25/30, 256 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
8.5 expected points added · +15.0% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
11/11 for 112 yds, 1 TD
38% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | SEA 25 | 5 | -7 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 25 | 10 | 57 | 5:42 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | SEA | SEA 4 | 5 | 19 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 4 | CAR | CAR 35 | 6 | 58 | 3:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | SEA | SEA 25 | 13 | 65 | 4:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 8 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 7 | SEA | SEA 11 | 4 | 2 | 2:00 | Punt | |
| 8 | CAR | CAR 47 | 5 | 53 | 2:12 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | SEA | SEA 25 | 9 | 75 | 3:51 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | CAR | CAR 33 | 9 | 60 | 2:24 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 28 | 9 | 58 | 4:21 | Interception | |
| 12 | SEA | SEA 20 | 8 | 80 | 3:54 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 25 | 10 | 62 | 5:04 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | SEA | SEA 25 | 15 | 48 | 7:14 | Fumble | |
| 15 | CAR | CAR 25 | 7 | 75 | 2:30 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | SEA | SEA 25 | 9 | 70 | 3:31 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 21 | 9 | 45 | 1:46 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | SEA | SEA 42 | 7 | 48 | 1:40 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 80 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/31 | 339 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Rashaad Penny | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 5 | 107 | 1 | 18% | 9.9 |
| David Moore | 4 | 5 | 103 | 1 | 18% | 10.6 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Flowers | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedric Thompson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley McDougald |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 25/30 | 256 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 125 | 7.4 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 57 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| -0.1 |
| Tre Madden | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 4% | 3.3 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 7% | 3.1 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7% | 1.6 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | 0.6 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | -0.7 |
| Mike Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.3 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.3 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Barkevious Mingo | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shamar Stephen | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Calitro | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Coleman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Clark | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.1 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 | 1.4 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 11 | 112 | 1 | 38% | 7.8 |
| D.J. Moore | 8 | 9 | 91 | 0 | 31% | 4.0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 7% | 0.9 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 7% | 2.4 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 14% | -0.8 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -5.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kuechly | 4 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Reid | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kawann Short | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Davis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Captain Munnerlyn | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Bradberry | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Corn Elder | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontari Poe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wes Horton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
