2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -3 upsetO 46.5 ✓Panthers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:45, SEA +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:45SEA — CAR CAR ball · 4th & 4CAR 74%

(1:45) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:45SEA +31% win prob(1:45) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q4 · 1:07CAR +31% win prob(1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett to CAR 10 for 43 yards (41-C.Munnerlyn).
Q4 · 3:33CAR +29% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:42CAR +18% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore pushed ob at CAR 13 for 54 yards (25-E.Reid).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Panthers
Offensive plays	58	57
Total yards	400	476 (edge)
Yards per play	6.9	8.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	0.20
Success rate	40%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.66 (edge)	0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.00 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

22/31, 339 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

21.5 expected points added · +18.4% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

25/30, 256 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.5 expected points added · +15.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

17 att, 125 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

8 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

11/11 for 112 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

5/5 for 107 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	5	-7	2:03	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 25	10	57	5:42	Turnover on downs
3	SEA	SEA 4	5	19	1:43	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 35	6	58	3:21	Turnover on downs
5	SEA	SEA 25	13	65	4:30	Turnover on downs
6	CAR	CAR 25	5	8	2:14	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 11	4	2	2:00	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 47	5	53	2:12	Touchdown
9	SEA	SEA 25	9	75	3:51	Touchdown
10	CAR	CAR 33	9	60	2:24	Turnover on downs
11	CAR	CAR 28	9	58	4:21	Interception
12	SEA	SEA 20	8	80	3:54	Touchdown
13	CAR	CAR 25	10	62	5:04	Touchdown
14	SEA	SEA 25	15	48	7:14	Fumble
15	CAR	CAR 25	7	75	2:30	Touchdown
16	SEA	SEA 25	9	70	3:31	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 21	9	45	1:46	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	SEA 42	7	48	1:40	Turnover on downs

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 80 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	22/31	339	2	0	2	21.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	16	55	3.4	1	-0.2
Mike Davis	4	14	3.5	0	-1.6
Russell Wilson	3	4	1.3	0	-1.3
Rashaad Penny	4	4	1.0	0	-2.2
Tyler Lockett	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	5	5	107	1	18%	9.9
David Moore	4	5	103	1	18%	10.6
Doug Baldwin	5	7	39	0	25%	-0.1
Tre Madden	1	1	28	0	4%	3.3
Nick Vannett	2	2	22	0	7%	3.1
Malik Turner	1	2	19	0	7%	1.6
Ed Dickson	2	2	13	0	7%	0.6
Chris Carson	2	2	8	0	7%	-0.7
Mike Davis	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.3
Jaron Brown	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	5	8	0	0
Tre Flowers	7	1	0	0
Tedric Thompson	4	3	0	0
Bradley McDougald	4	3	1	1
Barkevious Mingo	2	3	0	1
Shamar Stephen	1	3	0	0
Austin Calitro	3	1	0	0
Justin Coleman	3	0	0	0
Frank Clark	1	2	0	0
Jarran Reed	1	2	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	25/30	256	2	1	0	8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	17	125	7.4	1	1.1
Cam Newton	8	63	7.9	0	0.2
Curtis Samuel	1	25	25.0	0	1.4
D.J. Moore	1	7	7.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	11	11	112	1	38%	7.8
D.J. Moore	8	9	91	0	31%	4.0
Jarius Wright	2	2	25	0	7%	0.9
Curtis Samuel	2	2	17	1	7%	2.4
Greg Olsen	2	4	11	0	14%	-0.8
Chris Manhertz	0	1	0	0	3%	-5.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Luke Kuechly	4	8	0.0	0
Eric Reid	4	4	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	5	2	1.0	0
Kawann Short	2	4	0.0	0
Thomas Davis	3	3	0.0	1
Captain Munnerlyn	4	1	0.0	0
James Bradberry	2	1	1.0	1
Corn Elder	2	0	0.0	0
Dontari Poe	1	0	0.0	0
Wes Horton	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -3
Closing total: 46.5
SEA moneyline: +146
CAR moneyline: -162

Panthers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 57 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: SEA 10 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Ron Rivera