For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Seahawks152 of 166 plays carry both curves
(1:45) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Swing −31.2 for PanthersExpected points −3.42 for PanthersThe model had Seahawks 12 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:45SEA +31% win prob(1:45) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
4th · 1:07CAR +31% win prob(1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett to CAR 10 for 43 yards (41-C.Munnerlyn).
4th · 3:33CAR +29% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:42CAR +18% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore pushed ob at CAR 13 for 54 yards (25-E.Reid).
4th · 0:04CAR +17% win prob(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 9:27CAR +13% win prob(9:27) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SEA 16 for 59 yards (26-LA.Griffin).
4th · 2:29
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sebastian Janikowski's 31-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st2:15Graham Gano·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+30–3
2nd12:45Sebastian Janikowski·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–3
4th3:33David Moore·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+727–27
4th0:04Sebastian Janikowski·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.OttLead never changed again+330–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryPanthers
Seahawks1–7Panthers
400Total yards476
6.9Yards per play8.4
40%Success rate58%
46%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays11
20First downs24
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Panthers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Seahawks: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.20Panthers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.66Seahawks: +0.66 expected points added per play
+0.37Panthers: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Seahawks: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.00Panthers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 58 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Panthers’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Panthers 7.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.6% in week 11 against 15.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −14.2 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Panthers15.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.2%, 14.2 points below their season mean of 17.5% and 1.7 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+28% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:33 · Seahawks · 4th & 3 at CAR 35 · gained 35 · +5.84 EP · +28.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
46%
Yards
873
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3864%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.5056%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.6545%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2314%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 27
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 5
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 4 to the Seahawks 23
Seahawks0Panthers3
Field goal6 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Seahawks 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Panthers 44
2nd quarter45 plays
Seahawks3Panthers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 34
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Seahawks 13
Seahawks3Panthers9
Seahawks3Panthers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 47 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks9Panthers10
Seahawks10Panthers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Panthers 1
Seahawks10Panthers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Seahawks 7
3rd quarter35 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Seahawks 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Seahawks16Panthers13
Seahawks17Panthers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Panthers 11
Seahawks17Panthers19
Seahawks17Panthers20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 45
4th quarter51 plays
Seahawks20Panthers20
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Seahawks20Panthers26
Seahawks20Panthers27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Seahawks26Panthers27
Seahawks27Panthers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Panthers 35
No good11 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Seahawks 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Seahawks30Panthers27
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Panthers 10
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -3
Closing total
46.5
Seahawks moneyline
+146
Panthers moneyline
-162
Panthers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 57 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 50°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Seahawks 10 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Ron Rivera
CAR +13% win prob
(2:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 12-D.Moore to SEA 40 for 11 yards (33-T.Thompson).
2nd · 3:11CAR +12% win prob(3:11) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 38-T.Madden to CAR 1 for 28 yards (29-M.Adams; 25-E.Reid).
