2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -1.5 ✓U 54.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:25, TB +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:25SF — TB TB ball · 3rd & 8TB 51%

(10:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at SF 18 for 42 yards [54-C.Marsh].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:25TB +12% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at SF 18 for 42 yards [54-C.Marsh].
Q3 · 10:56TB +8% win prob(10:56) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at SF 41 for 34 yards (25-R.Sherman).
Q3 · 13:18TB +8% win prob(13:18) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 22-M.Breida to TB 19 for 24 yards (39-I.Johnson).
Q2 · 8:37TB +7% win prob(8:37) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 18-D.Pettis for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	59	68
Total yards	343	414 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	44%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.37 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	1/8	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	21	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

29/38, 312 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.3 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

18/32, 221 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

14 att, 106 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

18 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-5.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/8 for 116 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Dante PettisWR

4/7 for 77 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	9	1:25	Punt
2	SF	SF 10	5	28	1:24	Punt
3	TB	TB 27	8	78	3:50	Touchdown
4	SF	SF 27	5	3	1:25	Punt
5	TB	TB 16	4	-3	2:01	Punt
6	SF	SF 30	5	6	1:12	Punt
7	TB	TB 13	10	45	4:29	Punt
8	SF	SF 21	10	84	5:42	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 25	13	53	5:11	Turnover on downs
10	SF	SF 25	7	-4	1:38	Punt
11	TB	TB 41	8	43	1:37	Turnover on downs
12	SF	SF 12	2	0	0:06	End of half
13	SF	SF 16	11	78	3:58	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 25	8	52	2:37	Touchdown
15	SF	SF 25	11	35	4:15	Punt
16	TB	TB 15	11	85	5:00	Touchdown
17	SF	SF 25	6	2	2:05	Punt
18	TB	TB 22	5	23	2:04	Punt
19	SF	SF 15	5	59	2:18	Interception
20	TB	TB 20	9	29	4:38	Punt
21	SF	SF 21	7	52	1:48	Interception
22	TB	TB 14	2	0	1:17	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	18/32	221	1	2	4	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Matt Breida	14	106	7.6	2.8
Jeffery Wilson	7	33	4.7	1.0
George Kittle	1	10	10.0	0.5
Nick Mullens	2	-1	-0.5	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dante Pettis	4	7	77	1	23%	1.0
George Kittle	6	13	48	0	42%	-6.2
Matt Breida	3	4	34	0	13%	0.8
Richie James	2	2	27	0	6%	0.7
Kendrick Bourne	2	3	27	0	10%	0.7
Jeffery Wilson	1	1	8	0	3%	0.1
Kyle Juszczyk	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jaquiski Tartt	3	3	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	5	0	1.0	0
Elijah Lee	4	1	0.0	1
Fred Warner	4	1	0.0	1
Ahkello Witherspoon	4	0	0.0	0
Antone Exum	3	0	0.0	1
Sheldon Day	2	1	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	2	1	0.0	0
Richard Sherman	3	0	0.0	0
Cassius Marsh	3	0	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	29/38	312	2	0	1	16.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Peyton Barber	18	47	2.6	1	-5.0
Jacquizz Rodgers	5	31	6.2	0	-0.8
Jameis Winston	7	24	3.4	0	-0.8
DeSean Jackson	1	6	6.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	8	116	0	21%	10.9
Adam Humphries	6	6	54	1	16%	4.1
Chris Godwin	4	4	42	0	11%	1.7
Jacquizz Rodgers	4	5	31	0	13%	1.3
Cameron Brate	3	4	26	1	11%	2.7
DeSean Jackson	3	8	19	0	21%	-3.5
Peyton Barber	2	2	16	0	5%	0.5
Antony Auclair	1	1	8	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Whitehead	9	0	0.0	0	2
Isaiah Johnson	6	0	0.0	1	1
Devante Bond	4	0	0.0	0	0
Vita Vea	4	0	1.0	0	0
Vinny Curry	3	1	0.0	0	0
Riley Bullough	2	1	0.0	0	0
Brent Grimes	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	0	1.0	0	0
Beau Allen	2	0	0.0	0	0
Carl Nassib	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -1.5
Closing total: 54.5
SF moneyline: +115
TB moneyline: -127

Buccaneers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 36 — under by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: SF 13 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Dirk Koetter