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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
(10:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at SF 18 for 42 yards [54-C.Marsh].
Swing +12.2 for BuccaneersExpected points +4.02 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:25TB +12% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at SF 18 for 42 yards [54-C.Marsh].
3rd · 10:56TB +8% win prob(10:56) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at SF 41 for 34 yards (25-R.Sherman).
3rd · 13:18TB +8% win prob(13:18) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 22-M.Breida to TB 19 for 24 yards (39-I.Johnson).
2nd · 8:37TB +7% win prob(8:37) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 18-D.Pettis for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:24TB +6% win prob(6:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to SF 49 for 12 yards (33-T.Moore).
1st · 14:21SF +5% win prob(14:21) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TB 34 for no gain (90-E.Mitchell, 29-J.Tartt).
1st · 1:21
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Brate's 6-yard touchdown catch with 8:27 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Buccaneers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.0949ers: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.15Buccaneers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.2349ers: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.37Buccaneers: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1349ers: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.23Buccaneers: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 59 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 68 at 63%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 2, Buccaneers 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's sack or hit rate, 27.8%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 23.5% in week 2.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Buccaneers27.8%
leaned — got home · +12.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.95× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.8%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 2.0 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at SF 18 for 42 yards [54-C.Marsh].
Q1 10:25 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 8 at TB 40 · gained 42 · +4.02 EP · +14.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
754
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1668%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29+0.2055%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.2678%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.0533%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.7529%
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
49ers0Buccaneers6
49ers0Buccaneers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the 49ers 4
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the 49ers 30
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 42
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 42
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 43
49ers6Buccaneers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the Buccaneers 13
49ers6Buccaneers10
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the 49ers 22
Punt12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
49ers6Buccaneers13
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the 49ers 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
49ers9Buccaneers13
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the Buccaneers 1
49ers9Buccaneers19
49ers9Buccaneers20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the 49ers 2
Punt11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Buccaneers 37
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the 49ers 37
4th quarter43 plays
49ers9Buccaneers26
49ers9Buccaneers27
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 45
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Buccaneers 26
Punt14 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 42
Intercepted7 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the Buccaneers 27
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
