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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
9
27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:25, TB +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(10:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at SF 18 for 42 yards [54-C.Marsh].
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | 49ers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 68 |
| Total yards | 343 | 414 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.8 | 6.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 | 0.15 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% | 49% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 61% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.23 | 0.37 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 (edge) | -0.23 |
| Third downs | 1/8 | 7/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 11 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 | 24 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
29/38, 312 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
16.3 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected
Passing · SF
18/32, 221 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.3 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 2 | SF | SF 10 | 5 | 28 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 3 | TB | TB 27 | 8 | 78 | 3:50 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | SF | SF 27 | 5 | 3 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 5 | TB | TB 16 | 4 | -3 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 6 | SF | SF 30 | 5 | 6 | 1:12 | Punt | |
| 7 | TB | TB 13 | 10 | 45 | 4:29 | Punt | |
| 8 | SF | SF 21 | 10 | 84 | 5:42 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | TB | TB 25 | 13 | 53 | 5:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | SF | SF 25 | 7 | -4 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 11 | TB | TB 41 | 8 | 43 | 1:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | SF | SF 12 | 2 | 0 | 0:06 | End of half | |
| 13 | SF | SF 16 | 11 | 78 | 3:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | TB | TB 25 | 8 | 52 | 2:37 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | SF | SF 25 | 11 | 35 | 4:15 | Punt | |
| 16 | TB | TB 15 | 11 | 85 | 5:00 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | SF | SF 25 | 6 | 2 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 18 | TB | TB 22 | 5 | 23 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 19 | SF | SF 15 | 5 | 59 | 2:18 | Interception | |
| 20 | TB | TB 20 | 9 | 29 | 4:38 | Punt | |
| 21 | SF | SF 21 | 7 | 52 | 1:48 | Interception | |
| 22 | TB | TB 14 | 2 | 0 | 1:17 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 18/32 | 221 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 14 | 106 | 7.6 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 | 1.0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Pettis | 4 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 23% | 1.0 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 13 | 48 | 0 | 42% | -6.2 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquiski Tartt | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Lee | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fred Warner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 29/38 | 312 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 36 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
| 0.8 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 6% | 0.7 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 10% | 0.7 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 0.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antone Exum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sheldon Day | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Sherman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cassius Marsh | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -5.0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Jameis Winston | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | -0.8 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 8 | 116 | 0 | 21% | 10.9 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 16% | 4.1 |
| Chris Godwin | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 11% | 1.7 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 13% | 1.3 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 11% | 2.7 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 21% | -3.5 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5% | 0.5 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Whitehead | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Johnson | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Devante Bond | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vinny Curry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Bullough | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Grimes | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Beau Allen | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Nassib | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
