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2018 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 26, 2018 · NRG Stadium
17
34
Houston Texans 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:31, HOU +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(9:31) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Titans | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 52 | 60 |
| Total yards | 365 | 463 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 7.0 | 7.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.03 | 0.25 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 55% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.20 | 0.24 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.30 | 0.27 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/12 | 4/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 18 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 4 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
22/23, 303 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.6 expected points added · +19.5% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
19/24, 210 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.1 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | TEN 25 | 7 | 29 | 3:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | -3 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 31 | 3 | 69 | 0:47 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 38 | 9 | 62 | 4:00 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | TEN | TEN 25 | 6 | 26 | 3:30 | Punt | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 40 | 6 | 60 | 1:58 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | TEN | TEN 25 | 10 | 72 | 5:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 3 | 2 | 97 | 0:14 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 24 | 7 | 14 | 4:06 | Punt | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 13 | 10 | 42 | 3:28 | Punt | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 20 | 5 | 4 | 1:03 | Punt | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 38 | 5 | 37 | 0:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 25 | 12 | 66 | 6:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | TEN | TEN 22 | 10 | 35 | 5:16 | Punt | |
| 15 | HOU | HOU 13 | 4 | -1 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 49 | 4 | 56 | 1:47 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 18 | 4 | -6 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 19 | HOU | HOU 40 | 8 | 60 | 3:24 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 2 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 21 | HOU | HOU 26 | 10 | 34 | 4:58 | Punt | |
| 22 | TEN | TEN 9 | 6 | 64 | 1:26 | Fumble | |
| 23 | HOU | HOU 22 | 1 | 0 | 0:19 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 97 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 22/23 | 303 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 | 3.1 |
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -4.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 4 | 4 | 96 | 1 | 17% | 9.0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 63 | 1 | 9% | 4.6 |
| Anthony Firkser | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Ryan | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Vaccaro | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayon Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/24 | 210 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 12 | 162 | 13.5 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 51 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.5 |
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 30% | -2.6 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 13% | -2.2 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | 1.4 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 1.0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 1.6 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Wesley Woodyard | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Orakpo | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jurrell Casey | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LeShaun Sims | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Alfred Blue | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 | 26% | 7.1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 17% | 1.9 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 5 | 38 | 2 | 22% | 5.7 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | 1.6 |
| Keke Coutee | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9% | 0.2 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 0.2 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9% | -0.3 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | 0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benardrick McKinney | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Watt | 5 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Cunningham | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Joseph | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Covington | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brennan Scarlett | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Whitney Mercilus | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Peter Kalambayi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
