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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 34, Titans 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:31, 2nd and 2, on Jonnu Smith — 17.1 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:31 · 2nd and 2
Jonnu Smith
Titans
(9:31) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Houston Texans 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:31, Titans +17.1% win probability on one snap.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Deshaun WatsonTitansQ1 10:49(10:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 22 for -11 yards (sack split by 55-J.Brown and 91-D.Morgan).
9.8pts
Lamar MillerTexansQ2 9:36(9:36) 26-L.Miller right guard for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Texans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Titans at 6 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Titans at +0.03 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Titans156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(9:31) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.1 for TexansExpected points −5.07 for TexansThe model had Titans 9 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:31HOU +17% win prob(9:31) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:36HOU +17% win prob(9:36) 26-L.Miller right guard for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:49TEN +10% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 22 for -11 yards (sack split by 55-J.Brown and 91-D.Morgan).
1st · 13:46HOU +8% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis. PENALTY on HOU-20-J.Reid, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at TEN 46 - No Play.
2nd · 14:15HOU +8% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 84-C.Davis left end to HOU 34 for 39 yards (20-J.Reid).
1st · 1:22HOU +7% win prob(1:22) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins to TEN 28 for 28 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
2nd · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deshaun Watson's 15-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:50Ryan Succop·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+33–0
1st9:31Jonnu Smith·61-yd TD catch61-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+710–0
Texans ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Titans: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.25Texans: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Titans: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.24Texans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Titans: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.27Texans: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 52 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Texans’s 60 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Texans 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans20.6%
leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.6%, 7.1 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 1.5 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
53 dressed · 9 never used
64Josh KlineG · Every snap100%55 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%55 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%55 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%55 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Full-time98%54 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time96%53 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation76%42 snaps
19Tajae SharpeWR · Heavy rotation69%38 snaps
33Dion LewisRB · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
17Cameron BatsonWR · Heavy rotation51%28 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational49%27 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Rotational45%25 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational24%13 snaps
15Darius JenningsWR · Situational20%11 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Situational15%8 snaps
71Dennis KellyOT · Situational4%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Dane CruikshankDBMatt DickersonDEAaron StinnieGWill ComptonILBTyler MarzOTBlaine GabbertQBDavid FluellenRBDalyn DawkinsRBTaywan TaylorWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Stocker up−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:42) 88-L.Stocker up the middle to HOU 3 for no gain (41-Z.Cunningham; 55-B.McKinney).
Q2 9:42 · Titans · 4th & 1 at HOU 3 · gained nothing · -4.03 EP · −14.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 97 yards from the HOU 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
827
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.3939%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2556%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.1063%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2750%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.7043%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Titans3Texans0
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 13
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Titans9Texans0
Titans10Texans0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 39
Titans10Texans6
Titans10Texans7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Titans 12
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Titans 27
2nd quarter49 plays
Titans10Texans13
Titans10Texans14
Touchdown2 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Titans10Texans20
Titans10Texans21
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 36
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Titans 40
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 33
Titans10Texans24
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Titans 25
3rd quarter37 plays
Titans10Texans27
Field goal14 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 29
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Texans 48
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 22
Titans16Texans27
Titans17Texans27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Texans 43
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter40 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Texans 34
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Titans 20
Titans17Texans33
Titans17Texans34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Titans 10
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Titans 30
Drive ended4 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Titans 41
The period ended1 play
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Texans 38
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
