2018 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 26, 2018 · NRG Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -3.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Houston Texans 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:31, HOU +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:31TEN — HOU TEN ball · 2nd & 2HOU 52%

(9:31) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:31HOU +17% win prob(9:31) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:36HOU +17% win prob(9:36) 26-L.Miller right guard for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:49TEN +10% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 22 for -11 yards (sack split by 55-J.Brown and 91-D.Morgan).
Q1 · 13:46HOU +8% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis. PENALTY on HOU-20-J.Reid, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at TEN 46 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Texans
Offensive plays	52	60
Total yards	365	463 (edge)
Yards per play	7.0	7.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	44%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	0.27 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	4 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

22/23, 303 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.6 expected points added · +19.5% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

19/24, 210 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

12 att, 162 yds, 1 TD

8.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

9 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

4/4 for 96 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

5/6 for 74 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	7	29	3:13	Turnover on downs
2	HOU	HOU 25	5	-3	1:39	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 31	3	69	0:47	Touchdown
4	HOU	HOU 38	9	62	4:00	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 25	6	26	3:30	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 40	6	60	1:58	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 25	10	72	5:17	Turnover on downs
8	HOU	HOU 3	2	97	0:14	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 24	7	14	4:06	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 13	10	42	3:28	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 20	5	4	1:03	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 38	5	37	0:45	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	HOU 25	12	66	6:07	Turnover on downs
14	TEN	TEN 22	10	35	5:16	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 13	4	-1	1:37	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 49	4	56	1:47	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	1:29	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 18	4	-6	2:05	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 40	8	60	3:24	Touchdown
20	TEN	TEN 25	5	2	1:32	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 26	10	34	4:58	Punt
22	TEN	TEN 9	6	64	1:26	Fumble
23	HOU	HOU 22	1	0	0:19	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 97 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	22/23	303	2	0	6	8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Corey Davis	1	39	39.0	3.1
Derrick Henry	8	30	3.8	0.2
Marcus Mariota	6	28	4.7	-0.5
Dion Lewis	7	8	1.1	-3.0
Luke Stocker	1	0	0.0	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	4	4	96	1	17%	9.0
Jonnu Smith	2	2	63	1	9%	4.6
Anthony Firkser	4	4	52	0	17%	1.5
Dion Lewis	7	7	33	0	30%	-2.6
Derrick Henry	2	3	19	0	13%	-2.2
Luke Stocker	1	1	14	0	4%	1.4
Cameron Batson	1	1	13	0	4%	1.0
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	13	0	4%	1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Logan Ryan	4	6	0.0
Harold Landry	3	5	0.5
Kenny Vaccaro	4	4	1.0
Jayon Brown	2	4	0.5
Wesley Woodyard	3	3	0.0
Rashaan Evans	2	2	0.0
Kevin Byard	1	3	0.0
Brian Orakpo	2	2	0.5
Jurrell Casey	2	2	1.0
LeShaun Sims	1	2	0.0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	19/24	210	2	0	4	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Miller	12	162	13.5	1	8.1
Deshaun Watson	9	70	7.8	1	1.7
Alfred Blue	13	49	3.8	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	5	6	74	0	26%	7.1
Ryan Griffin	3	4	38	0	17%	1.9
Demaryius Thomas	4	5	38	2	22%	5.7
DeAndre Carter	1	1	14	0	4%	1.6
Keke Coutee	2	2	14	0	9%	0.2
Alfred Blue	1	1	13	0	4%	0.2
Jordan Akins	1	1	8	0	4%	0.0
Jordan Thomas	1	2	6	0	9%	-0.3
Lamar Miller	1	1	5	0	4%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Benardrick McKinney	5	4	0.0
J.J. Watt	5	3	1.5
Zach Cunningham	4	2	0.0
Johnathan Joseph	4	1	0.0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0.0
Christian Covington	3	1	2.5
Brennan Scarlett	2	2	0.0
Whitney Mercilus	2	2	1.5
Justin Reid	2	1	0.0
Peter Kalambayi	2	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3.5
Closing total: 42.5
TEN moneyline: +171
HOU moneyline: -190

Texans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 51 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: TEN 8 days · HOU 8 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Bill O'Brien

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.