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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:33 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Commanders170 of 183 plays carry both curves
(6:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.6 for CowboysExpected points +4.09 for CowboysThe model had Commanders 9 points higher than the market did.play 112
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:57DAL +15% win prob(6:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:27DAL +14% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:12DAL +10% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 85-V.Davis for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:09DAL +8% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short left to 14-T.Quinn for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-R.Gregory].
3rd · 10:44WAS +7% win prob(10:44) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to WAS 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-T.Quinn to DAL 25 for 30 yards (6-C.Jones). Return left sideline
3rd · 1:38WAS +6% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short right intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 90-D.Lawrence at WAS 30. 90-D.Lawrence to WAS 17 for 13 yards (72-J.Cooper; 73-C.Roullier).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amari Cooper's 40-yard touchdown catch with 6:57 left in the 3rd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th1:17Dustin Hopkins·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+323–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Commanders2–6Cowboys
332Total yards406
5.5Yards per play6.1
47%Success rate46%
36%Third-down rate43%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
17First downs19
3Sacks taken4
3Turnovers0
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Commanders: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Commanders: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.27Cowboys: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.12Cowboys: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 60 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 67 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, +7.5 pts, is past their previous high of +4.0 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cowboys15.6%
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.5 pts, 9.7 points above their season mean of -2.3 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:27 · Cowboys · 2nd & 9 at DAL 10 · gained 90 · +7.11 EP · +16.5% win probability
168 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 91 yards from the DAL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
735
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2262%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2573%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4662%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1020%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Commanders0Cowboys6
Commanders0Cowboys7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 16
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 28
Intercepted9 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Cowboys 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cowboys 47
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt1 play
Punt11 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Cowboys 49
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 4 to the Cowboys 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Commanders6Cowboys7
Commanders7Cowboys7
Touchdown2 plays
Commanders7Cowboys10
Field goal18 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 4
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Commanders 46
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 38
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Cowboys 10
Commanders13Cowboys10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Commanders13Cowboys16
Commanders13Cowboys17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 40
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Commanders13Cowboys23
Commanders13Cowboys24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 10
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 6
4th quarter50 plays
Commanders13Cowboys30
Commanders13Cowboys31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Commanders 5
Commanders19Cowboys31
Commanders20Cowboys31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 1
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Commanders 33
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Cowboys 36
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 15
Commanders23Cowboys31
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Cowboys 13
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -7
Closing total
40
Commanders moneyline
+279
Cowboys moneyline
-317
Cowboys closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 40; the game landed 54 — over by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Commanders 4 days · Cowboys 4 days
Coaches
Jay Gruden vs Jason Garrett
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 11:50
DAL +6% win prob
(11:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to WAS 36 for 11 yards (24-J.Norman). WAS-58-C.McKinzy was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass complete on a curl pattern.
2nd · 4:44DAL +6% win prob(4:44) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 85-N.Brown to WAS 38 for 22 yards (53-Z.Brown).
