2018 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 22, 2018 · AT&T Stadium

Washington Commanders

Dallas CowboysWinner

DAL -7 ✓O 40 ✓DomeCowboys closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.

Dallas Cowboys 31–23. Biggest swing: Q3 6:57, DAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:57WAS — DAL DAL ball · 3rd & 2DAL 60%

(6:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:57DAL +15% win prob(6:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:27DAL +14% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:12DAL +10% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 85-V.Davis for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:09DAL +8% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short left to 14-T.Quinn for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-R.Gregory].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Cowboys
Offensive plays	60	67
Total yards	332	406 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	75%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	4/11	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

22/31, 289 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.9 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Colt McCoyQB

24/38, 268 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-5.3 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

26 att, 121 yds, 1 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

12 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

8/9 for 180 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 16.3 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Jordan ReedTE

6/8 for 75 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	12	75	4:58	Touchdown
2	WAS	WAS 25	5	4	1:34	Punt
3	DAL	DAL 19	4	14	1:36	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 23	9	36	3:58	Interception
5	DAL	DAL 27	6	13	3:03	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 9	9	39	5:18	Punt
7	DAL	DAL 4	4	8	2:21	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 47	2	53	0:08	Touchdown
9	DAL	DAL 25	15	65	5:36	Turnover on downs
10	WAS	WAS 25	5	-5	0:26	Punt
11	DAL	DAL 40	5	7	0:47	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 3	1	0	0:15	End of half
13	WAS	WAS 25	7	8	2:54	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 8	4	1	1:35	Punt
15	WAS	DAL 25	4	30	1:29	Touchdown
16	DAL	DAL 25	8	75	2:15	Touchdown
17	WAS	WAS 25	8	42	3:42	Punt
18	DAL	DAL 9	3	91	0:55	Touchdown
19	WAS	WAS 25	3	9	0:39	Interception
20	DAL	WAS 17	6	17	2:20	Touchdown
21	WAS	DAL 44	8	44	2:28	Touchdown
22	DAL	DAL 22	11	40	6:16	Turnover on downs
23	WAS	WAS 33	4	31	1:09	Interception
24	DAL	DAL 14	4	0	0:28	Punt
25	WAS	WAS 46	11	41	2:37	Turnover on downs
26	DAL	DAL 49	3	0	1:13	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 91 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Colt McCoy	24/38	268	2	3	3	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	12	35	2.9	0	-2.0
Colt McCoy	5	28	5.6	0	1.0
Kapri Bibbs	3	17	5.7	1	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jordan Reed	6	8	75	0	21%	7.0
Vernon Davis	2	4	73	1	11%	3.5
Josh Doctson	6	10	66	0	26%	-3.1
Trey Quinn	5	6	26	1	16%	-3.5
Kapri Bibbs	3	3	19	0	8%	1.3
Adrian Peterson	2	2	9	0	5%	-0.1
Maurice Harris	0	5	0	0	13%	-6.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jonathan Allen	5	5	1.0	0
Mason Foster	2	6	0.0	0
Preston Smith	3	5	1.5	0
Josh Norman	5	1	0.0	1
D.J. Swearinger	5	0	0.0	1
Ryan Kerrigan	1	3	0.5	0
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	3	1	0.0	0
Quinton Dunbar	4	0	0.0	1
Daron Payne	3	1	1.0	1
Zach Brown	3	1	0.0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	22/31	289	2	0	4	7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	26	121	4.7	1	-4.4
Dak Prescott	6	18	3.0	1	3.2
Rod Smith	2	7	3.5	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	8	9	180	2	29%	16.3
Blake Jarwin	2	2	25	0	6%	1.3
Ezekiel Elliott	5	6	22	0	19%	-1.3
Noah Brown	1	2	22	0	6%	1.4
Michael Gallup	2	6	19	0	19%	-1.5
Jamize Olawale	1	1	10	0	3%	0.5
Allen Hurns	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Cole Beasley	1	3	5	0	10%	-1.1
Dalton Schultz	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jeff Heath	8	1	0.0	0	1
Leighton Vander Esch	6	2	0.0	0	1
Jaylon Smith	6	0	1.0	0	0
Xavier Woods	4	1	0.0	1	3
Anthony Brown	4	0	1.0	1	1
Chidobe Awuzie	3	1	0.0	0	2
Byron Jones	3	0	0.0	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	2	1	0.5	1	1
Jamize Olawale	1	0	0.0	0	0
Tyrone Crawford	0	1	0.5	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -7
Closing total: 40
WAS moneyline: +279
DAL moneyline: -317

Cowboys closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 40; the game landed 54 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: WAS 4 days · DAL 4 days
Coaches: Jay Gruden vs Jason Garrett

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.