2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Lambeau Field

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -13.5 upsetU 41 ✓20 mph windPackers closed -13.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, ARI +34% win probability on one snap. Played in 20 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03ARI — GB GB ball · 4th & 1ARI 66%

(:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03ARI +34% win prob(:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
Q4 · 4:35GB +17% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 44 for 32 yards (35-E.Pleasant).
Q4 · 0:26GB +12% win prob(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end pushed ob at ARI 40 for 11 yards (36-B.Baker).
Q3 · 2:01GB +12% win prob(2:01) 29-C.Edmonds left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Packers
Offensive plays	56	74
Total yards	316	325 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	36%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	16	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

31/50, 233 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.5 expected points added · -3.5% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

11/26, 149 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.1 expected points added · -15.4% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

20 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-4.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

5 att, 53 yds, 2 TD

7.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

8/13 for 93 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

3/8 for 54 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 21	11	29	5:57	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 20	8	27	3:09	Punt
3	GB	GB 8	4	4	0:50	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 46	7	9	3:47	Punt
5	GB	GB 19	5	21	1:34	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 11	4	3	1:01	Punt
7	GB	ARI 35	6	35	2:13	Touchdown
8	ARI	ARI 25	13	70	6:47	Touchdown
9	GB	GB 31	15	46	4:27	Turnover on downs
10	ARI	ARI 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
11	ARI	ARI 25	5	7	1:22	Punt
12	GB	GB 35	6	12	2:26	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 20	4	8	0:45	Punt
14	GB	GB 24	6	19	2:45	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 13	6	61	2:24	Turnover on downs
16	GB	GB 25	5	9	1:46	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 35	5	70	1:38	Touchdown
18	GB	GB 24	7	11	2:56	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 29	5	7	2:41	Punt
20	GB	GB 5	12	95	5:51	Touchdown
21	ARI	ARI 25	12	54	3:45	Turnover on downs
22	GB	GB 25	13	44	1:41	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	11/26	149	0	0	2	-2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	20	69	3.5	0	-4.3
Chase Edmonds	5	53	10.6	2	7.3
Josh Rosen	2	32	16.0	0	2.3
Christian Kirk	1	23	23.0	0	1.6
T.J. Logan	1	5	5.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	3	8	54	33%	-0.7
Larry Fitzgerald	3	6	48	25%	2.8
Trent Sherfield	1	3	21	13%	0.7
Chase Edmonds	2	2	13	8%	0.6
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	3	10	13%	0.9
David Johnson	1	2	3	8%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Gerald Hodges	9	1	0.0	0
Antoine Bethea	7	2	0.0	1
David Amerson	5	1	0.0	1
Haason Reddick	5	0	0.0	0
Budda Baker	5	0	0.0	0
Tre Boston	4	0	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	4	0	1.0	0
Rodney Gunter	2	0	0.0	0
Brandon Williams	2	0	0.0	0
Corey Peters	2	0	0.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	31/50	233	1	0	1	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	11	36	3.3	1	-2.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	29	14.5	0	2.4
Aaron Rodgers	3	20	6.7	0	1.8
Jamaal Williams	7	13	1.9	0	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	8	13	93	1	27%	8.5
Jimmy Graham	8	11	50	0	23%	1.9
Randall Cobb	3	5	25	0	10%	-0.7
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	7	19	0	15%	-1.0
Aaron Jones	4	4	16	0	8%	-1.6
Jamaal Williams	4	4	14	0	8%	-0.3
Jake Kumerow	1	2	11	0	4%	0.5
Robert Tonyan	1	1	5	0	2%	0.2
Equanimeous St. Brown	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Martinez	3	5	0.0	0
Ibraheim Campbell	7	0	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	2	4	0.0	1
Josh Jones	3	0	1.0	0
Tramon Williams	2	1	0.0	1
Reggie Gilbert	2	1	0.0	0
Tyler Lancaster	1	1	0.0	0
Tony Brown	2	0	0.0	0
Josh Jackson	2	0	0.0	1
Dean Lowry	2	0	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -13.5
Closing total: 41
ARI moneyline: +548
GB moneyline: -729

Packers closed -13.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 37 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 20 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: ARI 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Mike McCarthy

Wind at 20 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.