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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 20 at Green Bay Packers 17. Final.
Packers -13.5 upsetU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Arizona Cardinals 20, Packers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 4th and 1, on Mason Crosby — 34.0 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 4th and 1
Mason Crosby
Cardinals
(:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
16.3 mph wind
Packers closed -13.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Cardinals +34.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
34.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Larry FitzgeraldCardinalsQ4 4:35(4:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 44 for 32 yards (35-E.Pleasant).
16.6pts
Aaron RodgersPackersQ4 0:26(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end pushed ob at ARI 40 for 11 yards (36-B.Baker).
12.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Packers at 3 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Packers at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Cardinals176 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
Swing −34.0 for PackersExpected points −2.04 for PackersThe model had Cardinals 11 points higher than the market did.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03ARI +34% win prob(:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
4th · 4:35GB +17% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 44 for 32 yards (35-E.Pleasant).
4th · 0:26GB +12% win prob(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end pushed ob at ARI 40 for 11 yards (36-B.Baker).
3rd · 2:01GB +12% win prob(2:01) 29-C.Edmonds left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:55GB +9% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at ARI 8 for 19 yards.
3rd · 2:57GB +9% win prob(2:57) 29-C.Edmonds right guard to GB 3 for 29 yards (39-I.Campbell).
4th · 1:09GB +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zane Gonzalez's 44-yard field goal with 1:45 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:45Zane Gonzalez·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+320–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryPackers
Cardinals3–4Packers
316Total yards325
5.6Yards per play4.4
36%Success rate46%
38%Third-down rate21%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays3
16First downs21
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Cardinals: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.01Packers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Cardinals: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.08Packers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Cardinals: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.20Packers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 56 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Packers’s 74 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Packers 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's sack or hit rate, 7.4%, is past their previous low of 10.3% in week 4 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
54 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Packers10.3%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.5%, 15.6 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 1.4 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Mason Crosby−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
Q4 0:03 · Packers · 4th & 1 at ARI 31 · gained nothing · -2.04 EP · −22.9% win probability
174 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 95 yards from the GB 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63+0.0573%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1260%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4533%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.2738%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2657%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 21 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 47
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Packers 12
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Packers 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Packers 32
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Cardinals0Packers6
Cardinals0Packers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Cardinals 13
Cardinals6Packers7
Cardinals7Packers7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Packers 1
Cardinals7Packers10
Field goal19 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Cardinals 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 27
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Cardinals 48
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 28
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 42
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cardinals10Packers10
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Packers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 34
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Cardinals16Packers10
Cardinals17Packers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Packers 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 36
4th quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 37
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw10.1 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cardinals17Packers16
Cardinals17Packers17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 5 to the Cardinals 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cardinals20Packers17
Field goal15 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Packers 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
No good14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Cardinals 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
