2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -2.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Baltimore Ravens 26–16. Biggest swing: Q2 11:52, BAL +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:52BAL — ATL BAL ball · 2nd & 7BAL 70%

(11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at ATL 27 for -5 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett) [97-G.Jarrett], RECOVERED by ATL-44-V.Beasley at ATL 26. 44-V.Beasley for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-44-V.Beasle

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:52BAL +31% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at ATL 27 for -5 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett) [97-G.Jarrett], RECOVERED by ATL-44-V.Beasley at ATL 26. 44-V.Beasley for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 · 13:21ATL +11% win prob(13:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass deep middle to 10-C.Moore to ATL 25 for 21 yards (21-D.Trufant).
Q4 · 7:24BAL +10% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 17 for -8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor) [48-P.Onwuasor], RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at ATL 12. 25-T.Young for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:14ATL +9% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on ATL-41-S.Neasman, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at ATL 28 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Falcons
Offensive plays	75	45
Total yards	369 (edge)	132
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	2.9
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.50
Success rate	44% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	39%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.55
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.50.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

16/26, 131 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-13.8 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

12/21, 125 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-13.1 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

21 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

3/3 for 47 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Austin HooperTE

5/5 for 44 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	13	49	5:28	Turnover on downs
2	BAL	BAL 25	11	70	5:15	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 25	5	-10	1:02	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 29	4	6	1:26	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 20	7	29	2:41	Turnover on downs
6	BAL	ATL 49	6	23	2:35	Defensive touchdown
7	BAL	BAL 37	8	15	3:44	Punt
8	ATL	ATL 10	8	29	3:50	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 20	4	8	0:54	Punt
10	ATL	BAL 49	4	-9	1:19	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 18	9	51	1:40	Turnover on downs
12	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
13	BAL	BAL 25	11	53	5:01	Turnover on downs
14	ATL	ATL 25	5	9	1:20	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 13	14	65	8:08	Turnover on downs
16	ATL	ATL 25	5	6	1:28	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 16	13	55	6:38	Turnover on downs
18	ATL	ATL 25	3	-13	0:09	Defensive touchdown
19	BAL	ATL 25	8	49	2:58	Touchdown
20	BAL	BAL 25	8	16	4:18	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 70 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	12/21	125	2	-13.1
Robert Griffin	2/4	21	0	0.6
Sam Koch	1/1	21	0	4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Gus Edwards	21	82	3.9	0	1.2
Lamar Jackson	17	75	4.4	1	-0.2
Kenneth Dixon	8	37	4.6	0	-0.1
Ty Montgomery	3	13	4.3	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	3	3	47	12%	3.6
Ty Montgomery	5	7	42	28%	1.7
Michael Crabtree	3	4	36	16%	0.4
Chris Moore	1	1	21	4%	4.5
Willie Snead	1	3	8	12%	-1.0
Nick Boyle	1	2	7	8%	-1.0
Kenneth Dixon	1	1	6	4%	0.3
John Brown	0	4	0	16%	-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jimmy Smith	6	0	0.0	0
C.J. Mosley	4	1	0.0	0
Chuck Clark	3	1	0.0	0
Brandon Carr	4	0	0.0	0
Terrell Suggs	2	1	1.0	0
Brent Urban	1	1	0.0	0
Patrick Onwuasor	2	0	1.0	0
Kenny Young	2	0	0.0	0
Eric Weddle	2	0	0.0	1
Za'Darius Smith	1	0	1.0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	16/26	131	1	0	3	-13.8
Mohamed Sanu	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ito Smith	7	22	3.1	-4.3
Tevin Coleman	6	8	1.3	-2.8
Matt Ryan	2	4	2.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	5	5	44	1	19%	3.1
Mohamed Sanu	3	4	37	0	15%	2.4
Calvin Ridley	3	5	22	0	19%	-3.7
Julio Jones	2	8	18	0	30%	-2.9
Russell Gage	1	1	7	0	4%	0.4
Tevin Coleman	1	3	3	0	11%	-1.7
Ito Smith	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Deion Jones	13	2	1.0
Foyesade Oluokun	5	5	0.0
Grady Jarrett	4	3	1.0
De'Vondre Campbell	5	1	0.0
Sharrod Neasman	5	1	0.0
Damontae Kazee	3	3	0.0
Robert Alford	5	0	0.0
Jordan Richards	2	2	0.0
Deadrin Senat	2	2	0.0
Desmond Trufant	2	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2.5
Closing total: 46.5
BAL moneyline: +133
ATL moneyline: -147

Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 42 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: BAL 7 days · ATL 10 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Dan Quinn