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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 26, Falcons 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:52, 2nd and 7, on Lamar Jackson — 31.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:52 · 2nd and 7
Lamar Jackson
Falcons
(11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at ATL 27 for -5 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett) [97-G.Jarrett], RECOVERED by ATL-44-V.Beasley at ATL 26. 44-V.Beasley for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
U 46.5 ✓
Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 26–16. Biggest swing: Q2 11:52, Falcons +31.0% win probability on one snap.
31.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris MooreRavensQ2 13:21(13:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass deep middle to 10-C.Moore to ATL 25 for 21 yards (21-D.Trufant).
10.6pts
Matt RyanRavensQ4 7:24(7:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 17 for -8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor) [48-P.Onwuasor], RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at ATL 12. 25-T.Young for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.55 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Falcons at 1 chunk play.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — -0.10 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.50 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 9 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Ravens166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at ATL 27 for -5 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett) [97-G.Jarrett], RECOVERED by ATL-44-V.Beasley at ATL 26. 44-V.Beasley for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-44-V.Beasle
Swing +31.0 for FalconsExpected points +11.14 for FalconsThe model had Ravens 3 points higher than the market did.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:52BAL +31% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at ATL 27 for -5 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett) [97-G.Jarrett], RECOVERED by ATL-44-V.Beasley at ATL 26. 44-V.Beasley for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 13:21ATL +11% win prob(13:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass deep middle to 10-C.Moore to ATL 25 for 21 yards (21-D.Trufant).
4th · 7:24BAL +10% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 17 for -8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor) [48-P.Onwuasor], RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at ATL 12. 25-T.Young for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:14ATL +9% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on ATL-41-S.Neasman, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at ATL 28 - No Play.
3rd · 2:51BAL +7% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin III pass short left to 10-C.Moore pushed ob at ATL 29 for 8 yards (34-B.Poole). PENALTY on BAL-15-M.Crabtree, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 37 - No Play.
1st · 4:05
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 21-yard field goal with 10:02 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:36Matt Bryant·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+30–3
4th4:22Austin Hooper·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · two-point no good+626–16
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryFalcons
Ravens7–0Falcons
369Total yards132
4.9Yards per play2.9
44%Success rate36%
47%Third-down rate22%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays1
21First downs12
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Ravens: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.50Falcons: −0.50 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Ravens: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.48Falcons: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Ravens: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.55Falcons: −0.55 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 75 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Falcons’s 45 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Falcons 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.50.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 34.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +8.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Falcons10.3%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.5%, 16.3 points below their season mean of 50.7% and 1.1 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
53 dressed · 7 never used
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%81 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%81 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%81 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Full-time96%78 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Full-time81%66 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Full-time81%66 snaps
72Alex LewisG · Heavy rotation72%58 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Heavy rotation63%51 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation62%50 snaps
13John BrownWR · Heavy rotation53%43 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational49%40 snaps
15Michael CrabtreeWR · Rotational44%36 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational40%32 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Rotational33%27 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Rotational28%23 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Rotational26%21 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational26%21 snaps
30Kenneth DixonRB · Situational21%17 snaps
3Robert Griffin IIIQB · Situational20%16 snaps
71Jermaine EluemunorT · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Patrick RicardDLZach SielerDTJames HurstGTim WilliamsOLBJoe FlaccoQBTony JeffersonSSJordan LasleyWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson sacked−32% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at ATL 27 for -5 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett) [97-G.Jarrett], RECOVERED by ATL-44-V.Beasley at ATL 26. 44-V.Beasley for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 11:52 · Ravens · 2nd & 7 at ATL 22 · lost 4 · -11.14 EP · −32.1% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 75 yards from the BAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
41%
Yards
497
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1040%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.5674%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3633%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.3327%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3370%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1840%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Ravens0Falcons3
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Ravens 26
Ravens6Falcons3
Ravens7Falcons3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Falcons 13
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 30
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 35
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 25
2nd quarter55 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Falcons 41 to midfield
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Ravens7Falcons9
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 49 to the Falcons 22
Ravens7Falcons10
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Falcons 46
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Ravens 49
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 28
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Ravens 47
Ravens10Falcons10
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Falcons 23
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Ravens13Falcons10
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Falcons 3
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 34
Ravens16Falcons10
Field goal16 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Falcons 27
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Falcons 31
Ravens19Falcons10
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Falcons 29
Ravens25Falcons10
Touchdown2 plays
Ravens26Falcons10
Ravens26Falcons16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Ravens 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ravenscategory by categoryFalcons
Ravens0
Falcons3
