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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bills160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Clay.
Swing +18.6 for DolphinsExpected points +1.53 for DolphinsThe model had Bills 3 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:05BUF +19% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Clay.
4th · 8:48MIA +15% win prob(8:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-K.Stills for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-T.Murphy].
4th · 12:05MIA +15% win prob(12:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-Z.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:51MIA +14% win prob(3:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-34-S.Perry at BUF 36. 34-S.Perry to BUF 36 for no gain (51-J.Stanford).
4th · 6:37MIA +13% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle pushed ob at MIA 24 for 26 yards (28-B.McCain).
4th · 5:14BUF +13% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at MIA 30 for -7 yards (28-B.McCain).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kenny Stills's 13-yard touchdown catch with 8:48 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:49DeVante Parker·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–7
2nd11:53Zay Jones·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allenfrom Josh Allen · kick no good, wide left+66–7
2nd0:44Kenyan Drake·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+76–14
3rd9:06Stephen Hauschka·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Darr · snap R.Ferguson+39–14
4th8:48Kenny Stills·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+717–21
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryDolphins
Bills7–2Dolphins
417Total yards177
6.2Yards per play3.7
45%Success rate38%
38%Third-down rate22%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
13Explosive plays2
21First downs12
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Bills: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.12Dolphins: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.02Dolphins: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Bills: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.23Dolphins: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 67 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 48 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Dolphins 3.
NoteBills outgained Dolphins 417-177 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's sack or hit rate, 33.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +17.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.89× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins18.6%
inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 17.4 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.9 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
53 dressed · 8 never used
75Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%72 snaps
79Jordan MillsT · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%72 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
72Ryan GroyG · Full-time96%69 snaps
74Jeremiah SirlesT · Full-time92%66 snaps
11Zay JonesWR · Full-time92%66 snaps
25LeSean McCoyRB · Heavy rotation75%54 snaps
85Charles ClayTE · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
13Kelvin BenjaminWR · Heavy rotation58%42 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Heavy rotation50%36 snaps
16Robert FosterWR · Heavy rotation50%36 snaps
80Jason CroomTE · Rotational35%25 snaps
10Deonte ThompsonWR · Rotational35%25 snaps
33Chris IvoryRB · Situational17%12 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational14%10 snaps
65Ike BoettgerT · Situational11%8 snaps
45Marcus MurphyRB · Situational8%6 snaps
66Russell BodineC · Situational4%3 snaps
18Andre HolmesWR · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Ryan LewisCBJohn MillerGVladimir DucasseGMatt BarkleyQBDerek AndersonQBConor McDermottTLogan ThomasTERay-Ray McCloudWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Clay.
Q4 1:05 · Bills · 4th & 11 at MIA 30 · gained nothing · -1.53 EP · −20.8% win probability
158 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 83 yards from the BUF 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
39%
Yards
592
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0858%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0971%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2329%
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.3050%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.020%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Bills0Dolphins6
Bills0Dolphins7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 18
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 40
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Dolphins 15
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Dolphins 19
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Dolphins 48
2nd quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Bills6Dolphins7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Dolphins 4
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 17
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 42 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 40
Bills6Dolphins13
Bills6Dolphins14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Bills 3
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Dolphins 41
3rd quarter38 plays
Bills9Dolphins14
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 7 to the Dolphins 14
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 40
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 4 to the Bills 27
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 25
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 41
Intercepted1 play
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bills15Dolphins14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Dolphins 16
Bills17Dolphins14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bills17Dolphins20
Bills17Dolphins21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 11
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
No good11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 23
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Bills 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw9.4 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Dolphins 25
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -3.5
Closing total
40
Bills moneyline
+162
Dolphins moneyline
-180
Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 40; the game landed 38 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 85°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south; 0.04 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Bills 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Adam Gase
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 11:53
MIA +13% win prob
(11:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 11-Z.Jones for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake]. PENALTY on MIA-91-C.Wake, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 4:31BUF +12% win prob(4:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at MIA 38 for -8 yards (94-R.Quinn). FUMBLES (94-R.Quinn), recovered by BUF-75-W.Teller at MIA 42. 75-W.Teller to MIA 37 for 5 yards (91-C.Wake).
