2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -3.5 ✓U 40 ✓15 mph windDolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Miami Dolphins 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:05, BUF +19% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:05BUF — MIA BUF ball · 4th & 11MIA 80%

(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Clay.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:05BUF +19% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Clay.
Q4 · 8:48MIA +15% win prob(8:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-K.Stills for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-T.Murphy].
Q4 · 12:05MIA +15% win prob(12:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-Z.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:51MIA +14% win prob(3:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-34-S.Perry at BUF 36. 34-S.Perry to BUF 36 for no gain (51-J.Stanford).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Dolphins
Offensive plays	67	48
Total yards	417 (edge)	177
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	45% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	64%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	13 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Bills outgained Dolphins 417–177 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

18/33, 231 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

16/24, 137 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-0.7 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

9 att, 135 yds, 0 TD

11.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

LeSean McCoyRB

15 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Zay JonesWR

4/9 for 67 yds, 2 TD

32% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Isaiah McKenzieWR

4/4 for 46 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	12	60	5:18	Touchdown
2	BUF	BUF 25	8	15	2:56	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 13	4	-17	2:48	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 49	4	-6	1:09	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 13	4	6	1:00	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 45	10	51	5:05	Touchdown
7	MIA	MIA 14	5	-5	2:15	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 42	4	8	2:43	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 22	6	30	3:05	Punt
10	MIA	BUF 36	7	41	3:01	Touchdown
11	BUF	BUF 10	7	54	0:40	Interception
12	BUF	BUF 7	11	79	5:58	Turnover on downs
13	MIA	MIA 25	7	15	2:47	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 4	7	25	2:58	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 23	4	2	1:29	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 23	4	3	1:16	Interception
17	MIA	MIA 44	1	0	0:08	Interception
18	BUF	BUF 17	7	80	3:24	Touchdown
19	MIA	MIA 25	8	39	3:18	Touchdown
20	BUF	BUF 25	9	43	5:08	Turnover on downs
21	MIA	MIA 45	4	6	1:01	Punt
22	BUF	BUF 10	7	65	1:40	Turnover on downs
23	MIA	MIA 30	2	0	0:53	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	18/33	231	2	2	2	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	9	135	15.0	11.1
LeSean McCoy	15	52	3.5	-2.0
Marcus Murphy	1	7	7.0	0.1
Chris Ivory	6	4	0.7	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Jones	4	9	67	2	32%	5.8
Isaiah McKenzie	4	4	46	0	14%	1.4
Patrick DiMarco	1	1	38	0	4%	2.6
Robert Foster	1	3	27	0	11%	-0.7
Kelvin Benjamin	2	4	20	0	14%	-3.8
LeSean McCoy	4	4	12	0	14%	-1.2
Deonte Thompson	1	1	12	0	4%	1.1
Charles Clay	1	2	9	0	7%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Matt Milano	3	4	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	0	4	0.0	0	1
Micah Hyde	3	1	0.0	1	1
Jordan Poyer	2	2	0.0	0	1
Eddie Yarbrough	1	2	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	1	2	0.0	0	0
Rafael Bush	2	1	1.0	0	0
Jordan Phillips	1	1	0.0	0	1
Taron Johnson	2	0	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	16/24	137	3	1	3	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kenyan Drake	7	31	4.4	-0.1
Frank Gore	8	21	2.6	-2.1
Brandon Bolden	1	10	10.0	1.0
Kalen Ballage	4	3	0.8	-2.5
Ryan Tannehill	3	-5	-1.7	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	4	7	43	1	29%	1.7
Kenny Stills	4	6	37	1	25%	1.7
Brice Butler	4	4	25	0	17%	0.8
Kenyan Drake	2	4	13	1	17%	-0.5
Frank Gore	1	1	10	0	4%	1.4
Nick O'Leary	1	1	9	0	4%	-0.3
Isaiah Ford	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kiko Alonso	8	3	0.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	6	2	0.0	0	0
Reshad Jones	5	1	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	1	0.0	0	2
Xavien Howard	3	1	0.0	2	2
Bobby McCain	4	0	1.0	0	0
T.J. McDonald	2	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Wake	2	0	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	1	0.0	0	0
Robert Quinn	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3.5
Closing total: 40
BUF moneyline: +162
MIA moneyline: -180

Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 40; the game landed 38 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 86°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: BUF 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.