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2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina17
BY 7final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay24
Carolina Panthers 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24. Final.
Panthers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Panthers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:16, 2nd and 10, on Javien Elliott — 20.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:16 · 2nd and 10
Javien Elliott
Buccaneers
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Elliott at TB 18. 35-J.Elliott pushed ob at CAR 32 for 50 yards (22-C.McCaffrey).
U 52 ✓
17.9 mph wind
Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 1:16, Buccaneers +20.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
20.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris GodwinBuccaneersQ2 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8pts
Andrew AdamsBuccaneersQ4 5:19(5:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams [93-G.McCoy] at TB 14. 26-A.Adams to TB 19 for 5 yards (10-C.Samuel).
15.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.46 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.62 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 4 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 6 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Panthers163 of 172 plays carry both curves
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Elliott at TB 18. 35-J.Elliott pushed ob at CAR 32 for 50 yards (22-C.McCaffrey).
Swing +20.2 for BuccaneersExpected points +6.78 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 11 points higher than the market did.play 67
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:16CAR +20% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Elliott at TB 18. 35-J.Elliott pushed ob at CAR 32 for 50 yards (22-C.McCaffrey).
2nd · 0:20TB +17% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:19CAR +15% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams [93-G.McCoy] at TB 14. 26-A.Adams to TB 19 for 5 yards (10-C.Samuel).
2nd · 13:29TB +11% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin to CAR 25 for 48 yards (26-D.Jackson).
3rd · 7:39TB +11% win prob(7:39) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 85-B.Wilson. PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 52 yards, enforced at TB 47 - No Play.
4th · 2:51CAR +11% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at TB 48 for -4 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adam Humphries's 3-yard touchdown catch with 9:53 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Panthers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Panthers: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.02Buccaneers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Panthers: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.30Buccaneers: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.46Panthers: +0.46 expected points added per play
−0.62Buccaneers: −0.62 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 64 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 59 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Buccaneers 5.
NotePanthers outgained Buccaneers 445-315 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Buccaneers20.8%
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CAR's early-down pass rate, 70.9% against a season mean of 58.5% — and CAR swings 12.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
53 dressed · 7 never used
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%70 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Every snap100%70 snaps
67Ryan KalilC · Every snap100%70 snaps
1Cam NewtonQB · Every snap99%69 snaps
74Chris ClarkOT · Full-time96%67 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Full-time94%66 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Full-time83%58 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Heavy rotation76%53 snaps
69Tyler LarsenC · Heavy rotation64%45 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
17Devin FunchessWR · Rotational46%32 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Rotational36%25 snaps
88Greg OlsenTE · Situational19%13 snaps
11Torrey SmithWR · Situational13%9 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Situational11%8 snaps
71Marshall NewhouseT · Situational4%3 snaps
34Cameron Artis-PayneRB · Situational1%1 snap
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational1%1 snap
6Taylor HeinickeQB · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Lorenzo DossCBVernon ButlerDTBrendan MahonGMarquis HaynesLBAndre SmithLBTravaris CadetRBAmini SilatoluT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Elliott at TB 18. 35-J.Elliott pushed ob at CAR 32 for 50 yards (22-C.McCaffrey).
Q2 1:16 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at TB 25 · gained nothing · -6.78 EP · −23.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 92 yards from the CAR 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
759
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.0373%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0269%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0440%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Panthers0Buccaneers6
Panthers0Buccaneers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 3
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 27
Panthers0Buccaneers10
Field goal4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 17
Panthers6Buccaneers10
Panthers7Buccaneers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Buccaneers 8
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 43
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 46
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Panthers 4
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 25
Panthers7Buccaneers16
Panthers7Buccaneers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Panthers10Buccaneers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 9
Panthers10Buccaneers23
Panthers10Buccaneers24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 1
Panthers16Buccaneers24
Panthers17Buccaneers24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Buccaneers 10
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 36
4th quarter52 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Panthers 44
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 24
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Panthers 49
The period ended9 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -3.5
Closing total
52
Panthers moneyline
-185
Buccaneers moneyline
+166
Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 52; the game landed 41 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 81°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the south; mainly clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Dirk Koetter
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 17.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 10:49CAR +10% win prob(10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 13-J.Wright INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams [93-G.McCoy] at TB 29. 26-A.Adams ran ob at TB 29 for no gain.
2nd · 10:03CAR +10% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber up the middle to CAR 1 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-59-L.Kuechly at CAR 0. Touchback.
