2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

CAR -3.5 upsetU 52 ✓15 mph windPanthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 1:16, CAR +20% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:16CAR — TB CAR ball · 2nd & 10CAR 63%

(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Elliott at TB 18. 35-J.Elliott pushed ob at CAR 32 for 50 yards (22-C.McCaffrey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:16CAR +20% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Elliott at TB 18. 35-J.Elliott pushed ob at CAR 32 for 50 yards (22-C.McCaffrey).
Q2 · 0:20TB +17% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:19CAR +15% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams [93-G.McCoy] at TB 14. 26-A.Adams to TB 19 for 5 yards (10-C.Samuel).
Q2 · 13:29TB +11% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin to CAR 25 for 48 yards (26-D.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	64	59
Total yards	445 (edge)	315
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	-0.04	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	75%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.46 (edge)	-0.62
Third downs	3/8	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Panthers outgained Buccaneers 445–315 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

28/41, 300 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT

-10.0 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

20/30, 249 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

10 att, 106 yds, 0 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

5 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

5/6 for 101 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Curtis SamuelWR

6/11 for 88 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	13	75	5:14	Touchdown
2	CAR	CAR 25	4	-6	1:35	Interception
3	TB	CAR 20	4	3	1:30	Turnover on downs
4	CAR	CAR 27	6	69	2:27	Touchdown
5	TB	TB 25	6	11	2:31	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 20	6	26	2:40	Punt
7	TB	TB 20	7	79	4:12	Fumble
8	CAR	CAR 20	4	13	2:56	Punt
9	TB	TB 23	5	-3	2:41	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 25	7	50	3:09	Interception
11	TB	CAR 32	6	42	0:52	Touchdown
12	CAR	CAR 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
13	CAR	CAR 25	10	66	4:02	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 25	8	31	3:35	Touchdown
15	CAR	CAR 8	12	92	4:59	Touchdown
16	TB	TB 25	11	51	5:00	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 13	4	43	1:41	Interception
18	TB	TB 29	5	18	1:59	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 20	7	43	3:33	Interception
20	TB	TB 19	4	5	1:04	Punt
21	CAR	CAR 21	7	31	1:46	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 48	4	3	1:16	Punt
23	CAR	CAR 26	6	18	1:05	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	28/41	300	2	4	4	-10.0
Taylor Heinicke	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	10	106	10.6	4.6
Cam Newton	6	33	5.5	0.9
D.J. Moore	2	21	10.5	1.4
Curtis Samuel	1	8	8.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	6	11	88	0	27%	-0.1
Christian McCaffrey	9	10	55	1	24%	3.0
Ian Thomas	5	5	46	0	12%	1.3
D.J. Moore	4	8	44	0	20%	-7.3
Jarius Wright	2	3	44	0	7%	-1.0
Greg Olsen	1	1	13	0	2%	0.9
Devin Funchess	1	3	10	1	7%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Thomas Davis	4	3	0.0	0
Captain Munnerlyn	6	0	0.0	1
Luke Kuechly	3	2	0.0	2
Eric Reid	3	1	0.0	1
Donte Jackson	4	0	0.0	0
Dontari Poe	3	0	1.0	0
Shaq Thompson	2	1	0.0	1
James Bradberry	3	0	0.0	0
Kawann Short	2	1	1.0	0
Efe Obada	2	0	1.0	1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	20/30	249	2	0	4	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jameis Winston	5	48	9.6	0	2.3
Peyton Barber	16	45	2.8	1	-9.9
Ronald Jones	4	2	0.5	0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	5	6	101	1	20%	10.6
Adam Humphries	7	9	61	1	30%	3.5
Mike Evans	4	6	48	0	20%	0.6
Cameron Brate	3	6	36	0	20%	1.8
Alan Cross	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Peyton Barber	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Justin Watson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lavonte David	9	3	1.0	0	1
Jordan Whitehead	5	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Johnson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Javien Elliott	4	0	0.0	1	1
Adarius Taylor	4	0	0.0	0	1
Ryan Smith	3	0	0.0	0	1
De'Vante Harris	3	0	0.0	0	3
Justin Evans	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kevin Minter	2	0	1.0	0	0
Vinny Curry	1	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -3.5
Closing total: 52
CAR moneyline: -185
TB moneyline: +166

Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52; the game landed 41 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CAR 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Dirk Koetter

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.