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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Giants 30, Bears 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 6:00, 4th and 6, on Aldrick Rosas — 21.9 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:00 · 4th and 6
Aldrick Rosas
Bears
(6:00) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:00, Bears +21.9% win probability on one snap.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsOT 5:27(5:27) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 27, and recovers at CHI 26. 4-C.Daniel to CHI 23 for -3 yards (34-G.Haley).
18.2pts
A.RobinsonBearsOT 4:38(4:38) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 12-A.Robinson II to CHI 38 for 10 yards (23-B.Webb).
20.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 6 of 17 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 15 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Bears197 of 213 plays carry both curves
(6:00) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Swing −21.9 for GiantsExpected points +0.99 for GiantsModel and market agree here.play 202
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 6:00CHI +22% win prob(6:00) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Overtime · 4:38NYG +21% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 12-A.Robinson II to CHI 38 for 10 yards (23-B.Webb).
Overtime · 5:27CHI +18% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 27, and recovers at CHI 26. 4-C.Daniel to CHI 23 for -3 yards (34-G.Haley).
Overtime · 10:00NYG +18% win prob(10:00) 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at CHI 46 for 29 yards (39-E.Jackson).
Overtime · 2:56CHI +17% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass incomplete deep middle to 18-T.Gabriel (20-J.Jenkins).
Overtime · 3:18CHI +16% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel sacked at CHI 38 for -6 yards (54-O.Vernon). FUMBLES (54-O.Vernon), and recovers at CHI 40. 4-C.Daniel to CHI 40 for no gain (21-L.Collins).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aldrick Rosas's 44-yard field goal with 6:00 left in overtime put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime6:00Aldrick Rosas·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssieLead never changed again+327–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryGiants
Bears5–4Giants
376Total yards338
4.9Yards per play5.0
40%Success rate35%
13%Third-down rate35%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
18First downs17
5Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.09Giants: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Bears: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Bears: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.14Giants: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 77 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Giants’s 68 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bears 5, Giants 3.
NoteBears outgained Giants 376-338 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 60.0%, is past their previous high of 25.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 13.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.7 points.
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +15.9 pts in week 12 against −9.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
77 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Giants15.2%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 60.0%, 32.3 points above their season mean of 27.7% and 1.9 times their own 16.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Aldrick Rosas−22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:00) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
OT 6:00 · Giants · 4th & 6 at CHI 26 · gained nothing · +0.99 EP · −21.9% win probability
196 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 213 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 213 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 75 yards from the NYG 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
213 of 213 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
213
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
36%
Yards
714
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.3858%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1078%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2425%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.8273%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0825%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1543%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
213 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
213 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Bears0Giants6
Touchdown3 plays
Bears0Giants7
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 13
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 39
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 22
Bears6Giants7
Bears7Giants7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Giants 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Bears 46
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from midfield to the Giants 23
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 40
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 28
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 41
Bears13Giants7
Bears14Giants7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Giants 1
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 38
Punt7 plays
Bears14Giants10
Field goal6 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Bears 39
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.1 seconds
Bears14Giants16
Bears14Giants17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Bears 49
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
Bears14Giants23
Bears14Giants24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Bears 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Bears 25 to midfield
4th quarter62 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays
Bears17Giants24
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Giants 13
Punt15 plays, from the Giants 8 to the Bears 30
Fumble lost1 play
Bears17Giants27
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Bears 10
Bears20Giants27
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Giants 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bears26Giants27
Bears27Giants27
Touchdown14 plays
Overtime21 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bears27Giants30
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Bears 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThree
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -3.5
Closing total
44
Bears moneyline
-185
Giants moneyline
+166
Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 57 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; 0.03 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Bears 10 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Pat Shurmur
3rd · 13:00
NYG +15% win prob
(13:00) 13-O.Beckham pass deep middle to 81-R.Shepard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around to 13-Beckham who throws to 81-Shepard.
2nd · 13:16CHI +14% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short left intended for 29-T.Cohen INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at NYG 14. 52-A.Ogletree to NYG 34 for 20 yards (65-C.Whitehair, 4-C.Daniel).
