2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Chicago Bears

New York GiantsWinner

CHI -3.5 upsetO 44 ✓Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:00, CHI +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 6:00CHI — NYG NYG ball · 4th & 6NYG 82%

(6:00) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 6:00CHI +22% win prob(6:00) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
OT · 4:38NYG +21% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 12-A.Robinson II to CHI 38 for 10 yards (23-B.Webb).
OT · 5:27CHI +18% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 27, and recovers at CHI 26. 4-C.Daniel to CHI 23 for -3 yards (34-G.Haley).
OT · 10:00NYG +18% win prob(10:00) 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at CHI 46 for 29 yards (39-E.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Giants
Offensive plays	77	68
Total yards	376 (edge)	338
Yards per play	4.9	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	40% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	60%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	2/15	6/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bears outgained Giants 376–338 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Chase DanielQB

26/39, 285 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.1 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

19/35, 170 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

24 att, 125 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

16 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Tarik CohenRB

12/14 for 156 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -4.7 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

5/9 for 79 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 15	3	-2	0:46	Defensive touchdown
2	CHI	CHI 12	5	3	1:53	Punt
3	NYG	NYG 25	4	5	1:27	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 31	4	8	1:26	Punt
5	NYG	NYG 18	4	4	1:07	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 30	11	57	4:53	Touchdown
7	NYG	NYG 22	7	42	2:42	Interception
8	CHI	CHI 47	5	15	2:42	Interception
9	NYG	NYG 34	4	6	0:57	Punt
10	CHI	CHI 20	4	8	2:04	Punt
11	NYG	NYG 38	4	3	1:02	Punt
12	CHI	CHI 26	10	69	5:21	Touchdown
13	NYG	NYG 23	6	25	1:52	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 21	4	-2	0:34	Punt
15	NYG	NYG 43	5	18	1:14	Turnover on downs
16	NYG	NYG 25	6	75	2:11	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 25	5	1	1:40	Punt
18	NYG	NYG 40	14	52	7:11	Touchdown
19	CHI	CHI 25	10	16	4:27	Punt
20	NYG	NYG 20	4	2	1:58	Punt
21	CHI	CHI 26	7	61	3:08	Turnover on downs
22	NYG	NYG 8	14	53	6:59	Punt
23	CHI	CHI 2	1	7	0:07	Fumble
24	NYG	CHI 13	4	4	0:30	Turnover on downs
25	CHI	CHI 25	8	64	0:36	Turnover on downs
26	NYG	CHI 47	9	45	1:13	Touchdown
27	NYG	NYG 25	9	49	4:03	Turnover on downs
28	CHI	CHI 25	9	26	3:08	Turnover on downs

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 75 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Chase Daniel	26/39	285	1	2	5	-7.1
Tarik Cohen	1/1	1	1	0	0	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	16	76	4.8	0	0.4
Tarik Cohen	8	30	3.8	0	0.3
Taquan Mizzell	3	7	2.3	0	1.6
Chase Daniel	4	4	1.0	0	-5.6
Akiem Hicks	1	1	1.0	1	2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tarik Cohen	12	14	156	0	35%	-4.7
Allen Robinson	5	9	79	0	23%	3.9
Taylor Gabriel	3	7	17	0	18%	-6.0
Taquan Mizzell	2	2	16	0	5%	1.3
Josh Bellamy	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Adam Shaheen	2	2	5	1	5%	0.7
Jordan Howard	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.5
Anthony Miller	1	2	1	1	5%	2.5
Ben Braunecker	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Trey Burton	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	4	3	0.0	0
Bilal Nichols	2	4	0.0	0
Danny Trevathan	4	2	0.0	0
Eddie Goldman	1	4	0.0	0
Prince Amukamara	4	1	0.0	1
Eddie Jackson	2	2	0.0	1
Khalil Mack	3	1	1.0	1
Adrian Amos	2	1	0.0	1
Akiem Hicks	2	0	1.0	1
DeAndre Houston-Carson	1	1	0.0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	19/35	170	1	1	3	-5.9
Odell Beckham	1/1	49	1	0	0	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	24	125	5.2	0	-2.5
Wayne Gallman	5	16	3.2	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Russell Shepard	2	2	59	1	6%	5.7
Rhett Ellison	4	6	42	0	17%	1.8
Odell Beckham	3	9	35	1	26%	-6.7
Sterling Shepard	4	6	28	0	17%	0.9
Scott Simonson	2	3	25	0	9%	0.9
Saquon Barkley	3	4	21	0	11%	0.7
Bennie Fowler	1	2	11	0	6%	1.1
Elijhaa Penny	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Wayne Gallman	1	2	-2	0	6%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Grant Haley	7	0	0.0	0	0
B.W. Webb	7	0	0.0	0	1
Alec Ogletree	2	5	0.0	2	2
Dalvin Tomlinson	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kareem Martin	1	3	0.0	0	0
Landon Collins	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ukeme Eligwe	2	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Thomas	3	1	0.0	0	0
Olivier Vernon	4	0	2.0	0	1
Curtis Riley	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -3.5
Closing total: 44
CHI moneyline: -185
NYG moneyline: +166

Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 57 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CHI 10 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Pat Shurmur