2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · NRG Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -5 ✓U 47.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -5 and covered, winning by 16.

Houston Texans 29–13. Biggest swing: Q2 7:36, CLE +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:36CLE — HOU CLE ball · 1st & 10HOU 84%

(7:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at CLE 1 for 37 yards (6-B.Mayfield). Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:36CLE +9% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at CLE 1 for 37 yards (6-B.Mayfield). Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 · 10:44HOU +8% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins ran ob at CLE 14 for 17 yards.
Q1 · 0:44HOU +5% win prob(:44) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:47CLE +5% win prob(6:47) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at HOU 31. 24-J.Joseph pushed ob at HOU 49 for 18 yards (75-J.Bitonio).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Texans
Offensive plays	51	73
Total yards	428 (edge)	385
Yards per play	8.4 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	-0.20	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	82%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	3/7	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	5	0 (edge)

Browns outgained Texans 428–385 but lost the turnover battle 5–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

29/43, 397 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-4.3 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

22/31, 224 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.4 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

19 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Alfred BlueRB

13 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

6/9 for 103 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

7/12 for 91 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 21	14	63	6:48	Turnover on downs
2	CLE	CLE 27	5	5	1:56	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 18	11	82	5:38	Touchdown
4	CLE	CLE 25	7	24	2:20	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 20	9	40	4:16	Punt
6	HOU	CLE 11	6	12	1:36	Defensive touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 20	1	0	0:49	Interception
8	HOU	HOU 49	7	27	3:18	Turnover on downs
9	CLE	CLE 29	5	33	1:35	Fumble
10	HOU	HOU 20	6	2	1:43	Interception
11	HOU	—	6	48	0:01	End of half
12	CLE	CLE 25	11	85	5:21	Touchdown
13	HOU	HOU 25	10	30	4:13	Turnover on downs
14	CLE	CLE 25	4	79	1:51	Fumble
15	HOU	HOU 7	11	40	6:19	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 6	6	58	2:31	Turnover on downs
17	HOU	HOU 36	8	44	3:59	Turnover on downs
18	CLE	CLE 25	11	75	2:48	Touchdown
19	HOU	CLE 38	5	9	1:13	Punt
20	CLE	CLE 6	7	57	1:37	Turnover on downs
21	HOU	HOU 37	1	0	0:08	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	29/43	397	1	3	0	-4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	9	31	3.4	1	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	6	9	103	0	23%	3.7
Antonio Callaway	3	6	84	0	15%	-14.6
Rashard Higgins	4	4	62	1	10%	6.2
Nick Chubb	3	3	41	0	8%	2.1
Dontrell Hilliard	4	4	40	0	10%	0.5
Breshad Perriman	2	2	26	0	5%	1.3
Seth DeValve	1	2	19	0	5%	1.1
Duke Johnson	2	3	12	0	8%	-2.3
David Njoku	3	6	8	0	15%	-6.6
Damion Ratley	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Joe Schobert	1	8	0.5	0
Jabrill Peppers	4	4	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	6	2	0.0	1
Trevon Coley	1	6	0.0	0
Phillip Gaines	5	2	0.0	0
Damarious Randall	6	1	0.0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	4	2	1.0	0
Derrick Kindred	2	3	0.0	0
Tanner Vallejo	3	2	0.0	0
Brian Price	2	2	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	22/31	224	1	0	4	5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Miller	19	103	5.4	0.6
Alfred Blue	13	54	4.2	-2.5
Deshaun Watson	7	30	4.3	2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	7	12	91	0	41%	3.7
DeAndre Carter	6	6	32	0	21%	0.6
Jordan Thomas	3	3	32	1	10%	3.8
Demaryius Thomas	3	5	32	0	17%	0.2
Jordan Akins	1	1	13	0	3%	0.7
Lamar Miller	1	1	12	0	3%	2.4
Ryan Griffin	1	1	12	0	3%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Aaron Colvin	5	1	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	1	0	1
Benardrick McKinney	2	2	0	0
Justin Reid	3	1	0	2
Sammie Coates	1	2	0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	0	0	0
Shareece Wright	2	1	0	0
Andre Hal	2	1	1	1
Zach Cunningham	1	1	1	2
Whitney Mercilus	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -5
Closing total: 47.5
CLE moneyline: +219
HOU moneyline: -246

Texans closed -5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 42 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: CLE 7 days · HOU 6 days
Coaches: Gregg Williams vs Bill O'Brien