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Houston Texans 29, Browns 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:36, 1st and 10, on Zach Cunningham — 9.3 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:36 · 1st and 10
Zach Cunningham
Texans
(7:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at CLE 1 for 37 yards (6-B.Mayfield). Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Dome
Texans closed -5 and covered, winning by 16.
Houston Texans 29–13. Biggest swing: Q2 7:36, Texans +9.3% win probability on one snap.
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeAndre HopkinsTexansQ1 10:44(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins ran ob at CLE 14 for 17 yards.
8.0pts
Jordan ThomasTexansQ1 0:44(:44) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 5 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Browns161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(7:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at CLE 1 for 37 yards (6-B.Mayfield). Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive
Swing +9.3 for TexansExpected points +8.41 for TexansThe model had Browns 7 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:36CLE +9% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at CLE 1 for 37 yards (6-B.Mayfield). Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 10:44HOU +8% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins ran ob at CLE 14 for 17 yards.
1st · 0:44HOU +5% win prob(:44) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:47CLE +5% win prob(6:47) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at HOU 31. 24-J.Joseph pushed ob at HOU 49 for 18 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
1st · 3:58HOU +5% win prob(3:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 26-L.Miller to HOU 44 for 12 yards (26-D.Kindred; 51-J.Collins Sr.).
1st · 1:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 35-yard field goal with 8:15 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:15Ka'imi Fairbairn·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+30–3
Browns ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Browns: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.08Texans: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Browns: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.18Texans: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Browns: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.04Texans: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 51 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against Texans’s 73 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Texans 4.
NoteBrowns outgained Texans 428-385 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 2.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 8.7% in week 2.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.8-swing turn from week 12.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, +11.7 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +2.4 pts in week 4.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 12.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 78.0%, is past their previous high of 64.2% in week 6 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 4.1-swing turn from week 12.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans2.4%
off script — stayed blocked · −11.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−2.35× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.0%, 21.0 points above their season mean of 57.1% and 2.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at CLE 1 for 37 yards (6-B.Mayfield). Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 7:36 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 28 · gained nothing · -8.41 EP · −11.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 82 yards from the HOU 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
812
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1797%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2452%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR33-0.0055%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.9867%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.470%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Browns0Texans3
Field goal14 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Browns 14
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 33
Browns0Texans9
Browns0Texans10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Browns 11
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 31
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Texans 46
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Browns 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Browns0Texans16
Browns0Texans17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 28
Intercepted3 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Texans 33
Browns0Texans20
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Browns 24
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Texans 38
Intercepted1 play
Drive ended5 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Browns 41
The period ended1 play
Browns0Texans23
Field goal2 plays
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
Browns6Texans23
Browns7Texans23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Texans 2
Browns7Texans26
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Browns 35
Fumble lost5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 7 to the Texans 35
4th quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Browns 45
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Browns 6 to the Texans 36
Browns7Texans29
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Browns 20
Browns13Texans29
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Texans 17
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Browns 29
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 6 to the Texans 39
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
