2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

DEN -3.5 ✓U 45 ✓Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Denver Broncos 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 12:18, CIN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:18DEN — CIN DEN ball · 4th & 8DEN 68%

(12:18) 3-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-35-D.Thomas at CIN 33. 35-D.Thomas to CIN 33 for no gain (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on CIN-88-J.Franks, Offensiv

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:18CIN +13% win prob(12:18) 3-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-35-D.Thomas at CIN 33. 35-D.Thomas to CIN 33 for no gain (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on CIN-88-J.Franks, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 2:45CIN +10% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 23-D.Booker pushed ob at CIN 14 for 30 yards (21-D.Dennard). Penalty on CIN-59-N.Vigil, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 7:27DEN +8% win prob(7:27) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
Q1 · 13:47DEN +8% win prob(13:47) 30-P.Lindsay left tackle to DEN 41 for -1 yards (90-M.Johnson). PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Sutton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Bengals
Offensive plays	56	64
Total yards	362 (edge)	313
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	48% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	43%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	15	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Jeff DriskelQB

25/37, 236 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.8 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

12/21, 151 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.8 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

19 att, 157 yds, 2 TD

6.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

12 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

6/8 for 97 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

4/7 for 85 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	10	47	4:25	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 5	12	60	6:22	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 19	4	5	1:04	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 12	6	16	2:48	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 20	4	7	1:37	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 16	5	17	2:44	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 38	8	30	3:37	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	CIN 40	5	4	2:26	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 45	9	55	3:01	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 25	12	48	1:44	Turnover on downs
11	DEN	DEN 25	2	0	0:12	End of half
12	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	1:19	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 18	4	2	1:34	Punt
14	DEN	CIN 33	3	33	0:40	Touchdown
15	CIN	CIN 25	6	45	1:51	Interception
16	DEN	DEN 15	5	85	2:01	Touchdown
17	CIN	CIN 25	10	70	4:50	Touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	29	2:24	Fumble
19	CIN	CIN 46	7	12	3:27	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 26	5	10	2:33	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 12	6	19	2:50	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 20	8	47	3:16	Punt
23	CIN	CIN 15	2	9	0:36	Fumble
24	DEN	CIN 18	4	12	2:16	Turnover on downs
25	CIN	CIN 26	2	10	0:23	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 85 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	12/21	151	1	0	2	2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	19	157	8.3	2	6.3
Royce Freeman	12	48	4.0	0	-6.3
Case Keenum	2	9	4.5	0	0.8
Devontae Booker	1	4	4.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	4	7	85	1	37%	6.8
Devontae Booker	2	2	38	0	11%	3.8
Emmanuel Sanders	4	6	19	0	32%	-1.9
Andy Janovich	1	2	7	0	11%	-0.0
Phillip Lindsay	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.0
Matt LaCosse	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Todd Davis	9	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	7	2	0.0	1	1
Su'a Cravens	4	3	0.0	0	0
Joseph Jones	4	0	0.0	0	0
Bradley Roby	1	2	0.0	0	1
Adam Gotsis	2	1	0.0	0	1
Isaac Yiadom	3	0	0.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	3	0	1.0	0	0
Darian Stewart	3	0	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	2	1	1.5	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jeff Driskel	25/37	236	1	1	4	-8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	12	82	6.8	2.3
Giovani Bernard	5	14	2.8	-1.7
Mark Walton	1	10	10.0	-0.0
Jeff Driskel	3	3	1.0	-2.0
John Ross	1	2	2.0	-0.8
Alex Erickson	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	6	8	97	0	22%	5.9
C.J. Uzomah	5	6	33	0	17%	0.1
Giovani Bernard	6	8	32	0	22%	-1.3
Cody Core	1	4	30	1	11%	1.2
Joe Mixon	2	2	13	0	6%	1.8
John Ross	2	3	13	0	8%	0.4
Matt Lengel	1	2	9	0	6%	0.5
A.J. Green	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.8
Alex Erickson	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.9
Jordan Franks	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Shawn Williams	7	2	0
Andrew Billings	2	3	0
Hardy Nickerson	3	2	0
Jordan Evans	3	2	1
Dre Kirkpatrick	5	0	0
Michael Johnson	2	2	0
Carlos Dunlap	1	2	0
Darqueze Dennard	2	1	0
Alex Erickson	2	0	0
Christian Ringo	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -3.5
Closing total: 45
DEN moneyline: -178
CIN moneyline: +160

Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 45; the game landed 34 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: DEN 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Vance Joseph vs Marvin Lewis