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2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
BroncosDenver24
BY 14final margin
BengalsCincinnati10
Denver Broncos 24 at Cincinnati Bengals 10. Final.
Broncos -3.5 ✓U 45 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Denver Broncos 24, Bengals 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 12:18, 4th and 8 — 13.0 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:18 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(12:18) 3-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-35-D.Thomas at CIN 33. 35-D.Thomas to CIN 33 for no gain (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on CIN-88-J.Franks, Offensive Holding, declined.
Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Denver Broncos 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 12:18, Broncos +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon McManusBengalsQ2 7:27(7:27) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
8.1pts
Devontae BookerBroncosQ2 2:45(2:45) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 23-D.Booker pushed ob at CIN 14 for 30 yards (21-D.Dennard). Penalty on CIN-59-N.Vigil, Defensive Holding, declined.
10.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Bengals at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Broncos165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(12:18) 3-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-35-D.Thomas at CIN 33. 35-D.Thomas to CIN 33 for no gain (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on CIN-88-J.Franks, Offensiv
Swing −13.0 for BengalsExpected points −5.96 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 14 points higher than the market did.play 101
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:18CIN +13% win prob(12:18) 3-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-35-D.Thomas at CIN 33. 35-D.Thomas to CIN 33 for no gain (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on CIN-88-J.Franks, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 2:45CIN +10% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 23-D.Booker pushed ob at CIN 14 for 30 yards (21-D.Dennard). Penalty on CIN-59-N.Vigil, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 7:27DEN +8% win prob(7:27) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
1st · 13:47DEN +8% win prob(13:47) 30-P.Lindsay left tackle to DEN 41 for -1 yards (90-M.Johnson). PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Sutton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play.
2nd · 1:26CIN +7% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to DEN 36 for 22 yards (31-J.Simmons).
3rd · 11:32CIN +7% win prob(11:32) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Phillip Lindsay's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd2:00Phillip Lindsay·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd0:16Randy Bullock·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+37–3
3rd11:32Courtland Sutton·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+714–3
3rd2:53Cody Core·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel+721–10
4th0:27Brandon McManus·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+324–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryBengals
Broncos8–1Bengals
362Total yards313
6.5Yards per play4.9
48%Success rate33%
38%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
10Explosive plays9
15First downs18
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Broncos ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Broncos: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.18Bengals: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Broncos: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.22Bengals: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Broncos: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.12Bengals: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 56 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Bengals’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Bengals 2.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's early-down pass rate, 34.9%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 7 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +7.5 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bengals16.7%
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.9%, 22.0 points below their season mean of 56.9% and 2.2 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wadman punts+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:18) 3-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-35-D.Thomas at CIN 33. 35-D.Thomas to CIN 33 for no gain (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on CIN-88-J.Franks, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q3 12:18 · Broncos · 4th & 8 at DEN 20 · gained nothing · +5.96 EP · +18.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 85 yards from the DEN 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
37%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1572%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.1143%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.568%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1750%
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7+1.0571%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1267%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3840%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0220%
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bengals 43
Punt13 plays, from the Bengals 5 to the Broncos 44
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 24
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 31
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 29
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 31
No good9 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Bengals 31
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Broncos6Bengals0
Broncos7Bengals0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Bengals 6
Broncos7Bengals3
Field goal16 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Broncos 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 20
Broncos13Bengals3
Broncos14Bengals3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bengals 30
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Broncos 30
Broncos20Bengals3
Broncos21Bengals3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 35
Broncos21Bengals9
Broncos21Bengals10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Broncos 30
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 48
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Broncos 39
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Bengals 42
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 31
Punt12 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Bengals 28
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bengals 35
Broncos24Bengals10
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 11
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -3.5
Closing total
45
Broncos moneyline
-178
Bengals moneyline
+160
Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 45; the game landed 34 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; breezy at 15 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Vance Joseph vs Marvin Lewis
3rd · 0:35DEN +7% win prob(:35) 28-R.Freeman right tackle to CIN 45 for 7 yards (56-H.Nickerson). FUMBLES (56-H.Nickerson), RECOVERED by CIN-59-N.Vigil at CIN 46. 59-N.Vigil to CIN 46 for no gain (68-E.Wilkinson). {Freeman credited with 6 yard rush due to where the fumble was recovered}
3rd · 13:53CIN +6% win prob(13:53) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 35 for 10 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 28. {Cracraft credited with 3 yard return due to the penalty}
Broncoscategory by categoryBengals
Broncos6
Bengals0
