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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis0
BY 6final margin
JaguarsJacksonville6
Indianapolis Colts 0 at Jacksonville Jaguars 6. Final.
Colts -4 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Jacksonville Jaguars 6, Colts 0 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:38, 4th and 1, on Andrew Luck — 18.8 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:38 · 4th and 1
Andrew Luck
Jaguars
(2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.
U 45.5 ✓
17.8 mph wind
Colts closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 6–0. Biggest swing: Q4 2:38, Jaguars +18.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
18.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Carlos HydeColtsQ1 13:48(13:48) 34-C.Hyde up the middle to JAX 41 for 5 yards (96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (96-D.Autry), RECOVERED by IND-50-A.Walker at JAX 42. 50-A.Walker to JAX 42 for no gain (34-C.Hyde).
14.2pts
Erik SwoopeJaguarsQ4 0:09(:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 86-E.Swoope to JAX 25 for 4 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
14.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 35% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Colts at 5 of 18 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — -0.01 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Colts157 of 170 plays carry both curves
(2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.
Swing +18.8 for JaguarsExpected points +3.92 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 2 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:38IND +19% win prob(2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 0:09IND +15% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 86-E.Swoope to JAX 25 for 4 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
1st · 13:48IND +14% win prob(13:48) 34-C.Hyde up the middle to JAX 41 for 5 yards (96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (96-D.Autry), RECOVERED by IND-50-A.Walker at JAX 42. 50-A.Walker to JAX 42 for no gain (34-C.Hyde).
3rd · 1:13JAX +10% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short left to 12-D.Westbrook to IND 38 for 23 yards (35-P.Desir) [26-C.Geathers].
4th · 14:23JAX +10% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short middle to 24-T.Yeldon to IND 26 for 15 yards (34-M.Mitchell).
3rd · 10:08IND +9% win prob(10:08) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler sacked at JAX 27 for -8 yards (96-D.Autry).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Lambo's 30-yard field goal with 2:13 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd2:13Josh Lambo·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.OvertonLead never changed again+30–3
4th11:45Josh Lambo·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+30–6
2 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryJaguars
Colts3–3Jaguars
265Total yards211
3.7Yards per play3.9
35%Success rate28%
28%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays2
16First downs10
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Colts: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.29Jaguars: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Colts: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.75Colts: −0.75 expected points added per play
−0.68Jaguars: −0.68 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 71 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 54 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Jaguars 2.
NoteColts outgained Jaguars 265-211 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Jaguars15.8%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.0%, 18.3 points above their season mean of 59.7% and 1.3 times their own 14.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
53 dressed · 9 never used
74Anthony CastonzoT · Every snap100%76 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%76 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%76 snaps
12Andrew LuckQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%76 snaps
67Evan BoehmG · Full-time95%72 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Full-time87%66 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Heavy rotation76%58 snaps
15Dontrelle InmanWR · Heavy rotation71%54 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Heavy rotation59%45 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Heavy rotation55%42 snaps
11Ryan GrantWR · Heavy rotation55%42 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Rotational38%29 snaps
86Erik SwoopeTE · Situational18%14 snaps
45Ryan HewittTE · Situational17%13 snaps
73Joe HaegT · Situational14%11 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational7%5 snaps
63Josh AndrewsOG · Situational5%4 snaps
80Chester RogersWR · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Ryan KellyCChris MiltonCBHassan RidgewayDTLe'Raven ClarkOGJacoby BrissettQBJonathan WilliamsRBCorey MooreSSMo Alie-CoxTEClive WalfordTE
Jacksonville Jaguars
53 dressed · 9 never used
69Tyler ShatleyC · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Patrick OmamehG · Every snap100%58 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%58 snaps
75Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%58 snaps
6Cody KesslerQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
78Jermey ParnellT · Full-time91%53 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Full-time88%51 snaps
10Donte MoncriefWR · Heavy rotation78%45 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation67%39 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Heavy rotation62%36 snaps
24T.J. YeldonRB · Heavy rotation60%35 snaps
34Carlos HydeRB · Rotational40%23 snaps
87Blake BellTE · Rotational31%18 snaps
13Rashad GreeneWR · Rotational28%16 snaps
83Ben KoyackTE · Rotational28%16 snaps
40Tommy BohanonFB · Situational19%11 snaps
64Chris ReedG · Situational9%5 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Tre HerndonCBQuenton MeeksCBLerentee McCrayDEEli AnkouDTJosh WalkerGBlair BrownOLBBlake BortlesQBBarry ChurchSSD.J. CharkWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Luck sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 2:38 · Colts · 4th & 1 at JAX 19 · lost 9 · -3.92 EP · −19.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
2 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 62 yards from the IND 37 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
31%
Yards
476
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1480%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1069%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-1.0333%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3386%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.6340%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2020%
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.790%
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 36
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Jaguars 41
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jaguars 37
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 48
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Jaguars 34
The period ended13 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Jaguars 12
2nd quarter50 plays
Drive ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 5
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 1 to the Jaguars 5
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Colts0Jaguars3
Field goal16 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Colts 12
Punt13 plays, from the Colts 25 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 34
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 31
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 35
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Colts 45
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 20
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Colts 38
4th quarter44 plays
Colts0Jaguars6
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Colts 17
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 43
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 40
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Jaguars 19
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Jaguars 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Jaguars 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
