2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

IND -4 upsetU 45.5 ✓Colts closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 6–0. Biggest swing: Q4 2:38, IND +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:38IND — JAX IND ball · 4th & 1JAX 70%

(2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:38IND +19% win prob(2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 0:09IND +15% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 86-E.Swoope to JAX 25 for 4 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
Q1 · 13:48IND +14% win prob(13:48) 34-C.Hyde up the middle to JAX 41 for 5 yards (96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (96-D.Autry), RECOVERED by IND-50-A.Walker at JAX 42. 50-A.Walker to JAX 42 for no gain (34-C.Hyde).
Q3 · 1:13JAX +10% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short left to 12-D.Westbrook to IND 38 for 23 yards (35-P.Desir) [26-C.Geathers].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Jaguars
Offensive plays	71	54
Total yards	265 (edge)	211
Yards per play	3.7	3.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	-0.29 (edge)
Success rate	35% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	80%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.75	-0.68 (edge)
Third downs	5/18	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	2
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Colts outgained Jaguars 265–211 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

33/52, 248 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.0 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Cody KesslerQB

18/24, 150 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Carlos HydeRB

13 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-10.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Cody KesslerQB

5 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Eric EbronTE

10/16 for 81 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

8/13 for 77 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	4	16	1:30	Fumble
2	IND	JAX 42	3	1	1:29	Interception
3	JAX	JAX 28	4	9	1:25	Punt
4	IND	IND 23	7	20	3:39	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 14	4	5	1:40	Punt
6	IND	IND 37	16	56	7:50	Turnover on downs
7	JAX	JAX 1	4	2	2:03	Punt
8	IND	JAX 40	5	0	1:32	Fumble
9	JAX	JAX 40	13	48	6:49	Turnover on downs
10	IND	IND 25	10	20	1:48	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 20	3	28	0:15	End of half
12	IND	IND 25	5	15	1:46	Punt
13	JAX	JAX 17	7	18	3:58	Punt
14	IND	IND 21	8	24	2:43	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 15	4	5	1:26	Punt
16	IND	IND 25	4	6	2:37	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 32	10	49	5:48	Turnover on downs
18	IND	IND 25	6	18	1:48	Punt
19	JAX	JAX 20	7	22	3:58	Punt
20	IND	IND 27	9	45	3:22	Turnover on downs
21	JAX	JAX 29	4	9	0:41	Punt
22	IND	IND 15	7	60	1:53	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 60 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a end of game.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	33/52	248	0	1	3	-11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Marlon Mack	8	27	3.4	-3.8
Andrew Luck	2	16	8.0	0.0
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	5	1.3	-2.2
Zach Pascal	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Eric Ebron	1	-9	-9.0	-4.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Eric Ebron	10	16	81	32%	-1.6
T.Y. Hilton	8	13	77	26%	4.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	9	9	50	18%	0.5
Zach Pascal	1	1	16	2%	1.3
Dontrelle Inman	2	6	14	12%	-2.1
Marlon Mack	1	1	6	2%	0.3
Erik Swoope	1	1	4	2%	-2.1
Ryan Grant	0	2	0	4%	-1.1
Jordan Wilkins	1	1	0	2%	-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Walker	4	6	0.0	0
Pierre Desir	6	2	0.0	0
Clayton Geathers	4	3	0.0	0
Shaquille Leonard	2	5	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	4	2	0.0	1
Denico Autry	5	1	3.0	0
Quincy Wilson	3	0	0.0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	0	0.0	0
Jabaal Sheard	2	0	0.0	0
Matthew Adams	1	1	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cody Kessler	18/24	150	0	0	3	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Carlos Hyde	13	36	2.8	-10.6
Cody Kessler	5	28	5.6	0.9
T.J. Yeldon	8	16	2.0	-3.2
Dede Westbrook	1	-1	-1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Yeldon	7	8	49	36%	2.2
Donte Moncrief	3	4	40	18%	3.1
Dede Westbrook	3	5	25	23%	1.8
James O'Shaughnessy	2	2	19	9%	-1.1
Keelan Cole	2	2	16	9%	0.4
Carlos Hyde	1	1	1	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Telvin Smith	8	3	0.0	0	0
Myles Jack	7	3	0.0	0	0
A.J. Bouye	6	0	0.0	0	1
Jalen Ramsey	6	0	0.0	0	2
D.J. Hayden	4	0	0.0	1	2
Yannick Ngakoue	4	0	1.0	0	0
Ronnie Harrison	2	1	1.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	1	1	0.0	0	1
Calais Campbell	2	0	1.0	0	1
Dawuane Smoot	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -4
Closing total: 45.5
IND moneyline: -199
JAX moneyline: +179

Colts closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 6 — under by 39.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: IND 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Doug Marrone

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.