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2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium
0
6
Jacksonville Jaguars 6–0. Biggest swing: Q4 2:38, IND +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Colts | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 71 | 54 |
| Total yards | 265 (edge) | 211 |
| Yards per play | 3.7 | 3.9 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.30 | -0.29 (edge) |
| Success rate | 35% (edge) | 28% |
| Dropback rate | 80% | 59% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 | -0.01 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.75 | -0.68 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/18 | 6/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 2 | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 (edge) | 10 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 3 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Colts outgained Jaguars 265–211 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
33/52, 248 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.0 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
18/24, 150 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.3 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | JAX 25 | 4 | 16 | 1:30 | Fumble | |
| 2 | IND | JAX 42 | 3 | 1 | 1:29 | Interception | |
| 3 | JAX | JAX 28 | 4 | 9 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 4 | IND | IND 23 | 7 | 20 | 3:39 | Punt | |
| 5 | JAX | JAX 14 | 4 | 5 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 6 | IND | IND 37 | 16 | 56 | 7:50 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | JAX | JAX 1 | 4 | 2 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 8 | IND | JAX 40 | 5 | 0 | 1:32 | Fumble | |
| 9 | JAX | JAX 40 | 13 | 48 | 6:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | IND | IND 25 | 10 | 20 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 20 | 3 | 28 | 0:15 | End of half | |
| 12 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 15 | 1:46 | Punt | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 17 | 7 | 18 | 3:58 | Punt | |
| 14 | IND | IND 21 | 8 | 24 | 2:43 | Punt | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 15 | 4 | 5 | 1:26 | Punt | |
| 16 | IND | IND 25 | 4 | 6 | 2:37 | Punt | |
| 17 | JAX | JAX 32 | 10 | 49 | 5:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | IND | IND 25 | 6 | 18 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 19 | JAX | JAX 20 | 7 | 22 | 3:58 | Punt | |
| 20 | IND | IND 27 | 9 | 45 | 3:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | JAX | JAX 29 | 4 | 9 | 0:41 | Punt | |
| 22 | IND | IND 15 | 7 | 60 | 1:53 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 60 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a end of game.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 33/52 | 248 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | -3.8 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 | -4.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 10 | 16 | 81 | 0 | 32% | -1.6 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 13 | 77 | 0 | 26% | 4.1 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 9 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Walker | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Desir | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clayton Geathers | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 18/24 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 6 — under by 39.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.5 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2% | 1.3 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 12% | -2.1 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | 0.3 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2% | -2.1 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -2.9 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denico Autry | 5 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabaal Sheard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Adams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -10.6 |
| Cody Kessler | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | 0.9 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 36% | 2.2 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 18% | 3.1 |
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 23% | 1.8 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 9% | -1.1 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | 0.4 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | -0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telvin Smith | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Bouye | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| D.J. Hayden | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Calais Campbell | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dawuane Smoot | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
