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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Final
ChiefsKansas City40
BY 7final margin
RaidersOakland33
Kansas City Chiefs 40 at Oakland Raiders 33. Final.
Chiefs -14 no coverO 53.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs 40, Raiders 33 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:25, 3rd and 5, on Travis Kelce — 6.6 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:25 · 3rd and 5
Travis Kelce
Chiefs
(2:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LV 4 for 25 yards (27-R.Nelson).
Chiefs closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 40–33. Biggest swing: Q4 2:25, Chiefs +6.6% win probability on one snap.
6.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.WashingtonRaidersQ2 13:12(13:12) 33-D.Washington left tackle to KC 30 for -2 yards (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-44-D.O'Daniel at KC 30.
4.3pts
M.AtemanChiefsQ4 6:49(6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 46.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 97 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chiefs184 of 194 plays carry both curves
(2:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LV 4 for 25 yards (27-R.Nelson).
Swing −6.6 for RaidersExpected points −2.99 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 9 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:25OAK +7% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LV 4 for 25 yards (27-R.Nelson).
4th · 6:49OAK +6% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:12KC +4% win prob(13:12) 33-D.Washington left tackle to KC 30 for -2 yards (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-44-D.O'Daniel at KC 30.
1st · 13:30KC +4% win prob(13:30) 28-D.Martin up the middle to KC 37 for 10 yards (59-R.Ragland). PENALTY on LV-61-R.Hudson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 47 - No Play.
1st · 13:09KC +3% win prob(13:09) 5-J.Townsend punts 22 yards to KC 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
3rd · 3:33OAK +3% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-J.Cook for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 3-yard touchdown catch with 12:16 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 12 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:16Travis Kelce·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–0
1st7:45Harrison Butker·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+310–0
2nd7:07Harrison Butker·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+313–0
4th1:57Chris Conley·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+740–30
4th0:34D.Carlson·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+340–33
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was KC's sack or hit rate, 12.2% against a season mean of 15.0% — and KC swings 7.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
52 dressed · 7 never used
61Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%71 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%71 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
75Cameron ErvingG · Every snap100%71 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time97%69 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Full-time96%68 snaps
17Chris ConleyWR · Full-time92%65 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time89%63 snaps
32Spencer WareRB · Heavy rotation69%49 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation59%42 snaps
84Demetrius HarrisTE · Rotational44%31 snaps
26Damien WilliamsRB · Rotational27%19 snaps
12Gehrig DieterWR · Situational10%7 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational8%6 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Situational4%3 snaps
73Jeff AllenG · Situational4%3 snaps
19Marcus KempWR · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
James MurrayCJustin HamiltonDTKahlil McKenzieGChad HenneQBEric BerrySSDeon YelderTESammy WatkinsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LV 4 for 25 yards (27-R.Nelson).
Q4 2:25 · Chiefs · 3rd & 5 at LV 29 · gained 25 · +2.99 EP · +11.7% win probability
182 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 82 yards from the KC 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
46%
Yards
911
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.0765%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.4556%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0561%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.7433%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Chiefs 47
Chiefs6Raiders0
Chiefs7Raiders0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Raiders 3
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 47
Chiefs10Raiders0
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Raiders 10
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Chiefs 49
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Chiefs 27
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Raiders 49
2nd quarter46 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Chiefs 28
Chiefs13Raiders0
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Raiders 29
Chiefs13Raiders6
Chiefs13Raiders7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs19Raiders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Raiders 6
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter48 plays
Chiefs19Raiders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 31
Chiefs25Raiders10
Chiefs26Raiders10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 1
Chiefs26Raiders16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Chiefs 19
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 23
Fumble lost1 play
Chiefs32Raiders16
Chiefs33Raiders16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Raiders 13
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Chiefs33Raiders22
Chiefs33Raiders23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Chiefs 1
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 15
Chiefs33Raiders29
Chiefs33Raiders30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Chiefs 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.3 seconds
Chiefs39Raiders30
Chiefs40Raiders30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 2
Chiefs40Raiders33
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 26
The period ended7 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
