2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Oakland Raiders

KC -14 no coverO 53.5 ✓Chiefs closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 40–33. Biggest swing: Q4 2:25, OAK +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:25KC — OAK KC ball · 3rd & 5KC 90%

(2:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LV 4 for 25 yards (27-R.Nelson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:25OAK +7% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LV 4 for 25 yards (27-R.Nelson).
Q4 · 6:49OAK +6% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:12KC +4% win prob(13:12) 33-D.Washington left tackle to KC 30 for -2 yards (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-44-D.O'Daniel at KC 30.
Q1 · 13:30KC +4% win prob(13:30) 28-D.Martin up the middle to KC 37 for 10 yards (59-R.Ragland). PENALTY on LV-61-R.Hudson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 47 - No Play.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/38, 295 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

17.4 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

9 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Spencer WareRB

14 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

12/13 for 168 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 12.3 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Demetrius HarrisTE

3/6 for 39 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 22	2	24	0:16	Fumble
2	LV	LV 44	4	9	1:41	Punt
3	KC	KC 35	3	36	0:52	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 15	4	34	0:58	Fumble
5	KC	LV 49	8	54	3:31	Turnover on downs
6	LV	LV 40	8	7	3:52	Punt
7	KC	KC 14	5	13	2:22	Punt
8	LV	LV 38	9	32	3:26	Fumble
9	KC	KC 30	12	48	6:00	Turnover on downs
10	LV	LV 25	13	74	5:58	Touchdown
11	KC	KC 18	7	82	0:57	Touchdown
12	LV	—	1	0	0:07	End of half
13	LV	LV 25	9	40	3:54	Turnover on downs
14	KC	KC 25	13	75	5:18	Touchdown
15	LV	LV 32	8	73	2:20	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 20	5	3	1:04	Punt
17	LV	LV 34	1	17	0:11	Fumble
18	KC	KC 48	8	52	2:09	Touchdown
19	LV	LV 25	12	75	4:23	Touchdown
20	KC	KC 8	6	10	1:23	Punt
21	LV	LV 46	7	37	2:32	Touchdown
22	KC	KC 25	12	75	4:52	Touchdown
23	LV	LV 25	9	44	1:24	Turnover on downs
24	KC	LV 37	4	0	0:30	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 82 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/38	295	4	0	0	17.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	9	52	5.8	0	-0.3
Spencer Ware	14	47	3.4	1	-0.6
Damien Williams	5	38	7.6	0	1.9
Tyreek Hill	2	37	18.5	0	2.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	12	13	168	2	35%	12.3
Demetrius Harris	3	6	39	1	16%	2.0
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	38	0	3%	2.9
Chris Conley	3	7	25	1	19%	0.1
Tyreek Hill	1	6	13	0	16%	-2.2
Damien Williams	2	2	7	0	5%	-1.4
Spencer Ware	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Gehrig Dieter	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kendall Fuller	7	1	0.0	0
Orlando Scandrick	6	1	0.0	1
Ron Parker	6	1	0.0	0
Anthony Hitchens	2	4	0.0	0
Steven Nelson	5	1	0.0	0
Reggie Ragland	2	3	0.0	0
Dee Ford	3	2	1.5	0
Chris Jones	3	1	1.5	0
Allen Bailey	2	2	0.0	0
Xavier Williams	2	1	0.0	0

Oakland Raiders

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -14
Closing total: 53.5
KC moneyline: -769
OAK moneyline: +593

Chiefs closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 73 — over by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: KC 13 days · OAK 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Jon Gruden

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.