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Los Angeles Chargers 33 at Pittsburgh Steelers 30. Final.
Steelers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Los Angeles Chargers 33, Steelers 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 13:11, 4th and 24 — 15.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:11 · 4th and 24
Unnamed on the sheet
Chargers
(13:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to LAC 27, Center-57-K.Canaday. 20-D.King for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-57-K.Canaday was injured during the play.
O 53.5 ✓
Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:11, Chargers +15.4% win probability on one snap.
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin JacksonChargersQ4 8:14(8:14) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.7pts
Keenan AllenChargersQ4 2:39(2:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 49 for 12 yards (23-J.Haden, 21-S.Davis).
12.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Steelers at 3 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chargers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Chargers163 of 170 plays carry both curves
(13:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to LAC 27, Center-57-K.Canaday. 20-D.King for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-57-K.Canaday was injured during the play.
Swing −15.4 for SteelersExpected points −4.77 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 123
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:11LAC +15% win prob(13:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to LAC 27, Center-57-K.Canaday. 20-D.King for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-57-K.Canaday was injured during the play.
4th · 8:14PIT +15% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:39PIT +12% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 49 for 12 yards (23-J.Haden, 21-S.Davis).
4th · 4:18PIT +11% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 38-J.Samuels for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:12PIT +11% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to PIT 22 for 12 yards (21-S.Davis) [79-J.Hargrave].
4th · 2:00PIT +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson up the middle to PIT 40 for 11 yards (21-S.Davis, 79-J.Hargrave).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Badgley's 29-yard field goal with 0:00 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th4:18Jaylen Samuels·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+730–30
4th0:00Michael Badgley·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.WindtLead never changed again+333–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categorySteelers
Chargers7–2Steelers
375Total yards336
6.0Yards per play5.3
50%Success rate44%
55%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays3
23First downs20
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Chargers: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.11Steelers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.46Chargers: +0.46 expected points added per play
+0.13Steelers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Chargers: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Steelers’s 63 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Steelers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's sack or hit rate, 4.3%, is past their previous low of 7.5% in week 7 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Steelers22.5%
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 8.6 points below their season mean of 12.9% and 1.5 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Jackson left+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:14) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:14 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at PIT 18 · gained 18 · +2.36 EP · +18.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 91 yards from the PIT 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
711
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.0077%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.4868%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3280%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+1.1467%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
No good8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Steelers 34
Chargers0Steelers6
Chargers0Steelers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Chargers 1
Punt5 plays
Chargers0Steelers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 48 to the Chargers 1
Chargers6Steelers13
Chargers7Steelers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Steelers 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 33
2nd quarter49 plays
Intercepted11 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Chargers 22
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 20
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 24
Chargers7Steelers16
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 30
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 39
Chargers7Steelers22
Chargers7Steelers23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Chargers 28
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Chargers 47
Chargers13Steelers23
Chargers15Steelers23
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Steelers 10
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Steelers 30
4th quarter51 plays
Chargers21Steelers23
Touchdown4 plays
Chargers23Steelers23
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Chargers29Steelers23
Chargers30Steelers23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Steelers 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chargers30Steelers29
Chargers30Steelers30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Chargers 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Chargers33Steelers30
Field goal17 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Steelers 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -3.5
Closing total
53.5
Chargers moneyline
+166
Steelers moneyline
-185
Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 63 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south; mainly clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Mike Tomlin
4th · 5:19
PIT +11% win prob
(5:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 10-R.Switzer (57-J.Brown). PENALTY on LAC-57-J.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play.
1st · 10:10PIT +10% win prob(10:10) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown to LAC 1 for 46 yards (26-C.Hayward).
