2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Heinz Field

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -3.5 upsetO 53.5 ✓Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Chargers 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:11, LAC +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:11LAC — PIT PIT ball · 4th & 24PIT 81%

(13:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to LAC 27, Center-57-K.Canaday. 20-D.King for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-57-K.Canaday was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:11LAC +15% win prob(13:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to LAC 27, Center-57-K.Canaday. 20-D.King for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-57-K.Canaday was injured during the play.
Q4 · 8:14PIT +15% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:39PIT +12% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 49 for 12 yards (23-J.Haden, 21-S.Davis).
Q4 · 4:18PIT +11% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 38-J.Samuels for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Steelers
Offensive plays	62	63
Total yards	375 (edge)	336
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.28 (edge)	0.11
Success rate	50% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	65%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.46 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

26/36, 299 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.3 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

29/45, 281 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.9 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

8 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

15 att, 60 yds, 2 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Antonio BrownWR

10/13 for 154 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 13.3 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

14/19 for 148 yds, 1 TD

53% of team targets · 10.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	8	41	3:41	Turnover on downs
2	PIT	PIT 42	5	58	1:59	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 21	5	-9	1:38	Punt
4	PIT	LAC 48	7	20	3:01	Touchdown
5	LAC	LAC 25	8	75	3:37	Touchdown
6	PIT	PIT 25	15	53	5:28	Interception
7	LAC	LAC 21	7	11	3:12	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 11	4	9	2:11	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 17	4	7	1:34	Punt
10	PIT	LAC 34	4	4	0:59	Turnover on downs
11	LAC	LAC 25	7	14	1:05	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 9	7	74	1:18	Touchdown
13	LAC	LAC 25	2	1	0:17	End of half
14	PIT	PIT 25	9	38	5:10	Punt
15	LAC	LAC 12	14	100	8:07	Touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 14	7	12	3:51	Defensive touchdown
17	PIT	PIT 25	5	5	0:52	Punt
18	LAC	LAC 21	8	79	3:51	Touchdown
19	PIT	PIT 22	14	63	3:59	Touchdown
20	LAC	LAC 25	12	54	4:10	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 100 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	26/36	299	2	0	2	18.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Jackson	8	63	7.9	1	3.9
Austin Ekeler	13	21	1.6	0	-4.6
Travis Benjamin	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	14	19	148	1	53%	10.4
Mike Williams	3	3	52	0	8%	6.8
Travis Benjamin	2	2	44	1	6%	2.9
Austin Ekeler	5	8	22	0	22%	-1.7
Justin Jackson	1	1	19	0	3%	1.2
Tyrell Williams	1	2	14	0	6%	0.9
Antonio Gates	0	1	0	0	3%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jatavis Brown	6	6	0.0	0	1
Adrian Phillips	5	4	0.0	0	1
Desmond King	7	1	0.0	0	2
Joey Bosa	3	2	1.0	0	0
Damion Square	1	3	0.0	0	0
Kyle Emanuel	1	2	0.0	0	0
Hayes Pullard	1	1	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	1	1	0.0	1	3
Casey Hayward	2	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Davis	1	0	0.0	0	1

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	29/45	281	2	1	1	5.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	15	60	4.0	2	1.2
Jaylen Samuels	2	5	2.5	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	10	13	154	1	29%	13.3
JuJu Smith-Schuster	6	9	49	0	20%	1.9
Vance McDonald	4	7	28	0	16%	-6.6
Jaylen Samuels	3	3	20	1	7%	2.2
James Conner	3	4	14	0	9%	-0.2
Ryan Switzer	2	2	9	0	4%	-0.5
Jesse James	1	3	7	0	7%	-0.9
Justin Hunter	0	3	0	0	7%	-1.4
Darrius Heyward-Bey	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
L.J. Fort	6	3	0.0	0
Sean Davis	5	3	0.0	1
Terrell Edmunds	5	3	1.0	1
Vince Williams	3	2	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	3	2	0.0	1
Bud Dupree	3	1	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	3	1	1.0	0
Cameron Heyward	0	3	0.0	1
Coty Sensabaugh	2	0	0.0	0
Alejandro Villanueva	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3.5
Closing total: 53.5
LAC moneyline: +166
PIT moneyline: -185

Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 63 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LAC 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Mike Tomlin