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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 30, Lions 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:26, 1st and 10, on Matthew Stafford — 15.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:26 · 1st and 10
Matthew Stafford
Rams
(8:26) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 29 for -13 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at DET 24. 50-S.Ebukam to DET 24 for no gain (87-L.Toilolo).
Dome
Rams closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Los Angeles Rams 30–16. Biggest swing: Q4 8:26, Rams +15.9% win probability on one snap.
15.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Robert WoodsRamsQ2 2:33(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.6pts
Taylor DeckerLionsQ3 3:08(3:08) 68-T.Decker reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 68-T.Decker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Lions at 2 of 12 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.23 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Rams176 of 188 plays carry both curves
(8:26) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 29 for -13 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at DET 24. 50-S.Ebukam to DET 24 for no gain (87-L.Toilolo).
Swing −15.9 for LionsExpected points −6.72 for LionsThe model had Lions 17 points higher than the market did.play 149
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:26LA +16% win prob(8:26) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 29 for -13 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at DET 24. 50-S.Ebukam to DET 24 for no gain (87-L.Toilolo).
2nd · 2:33DET +8% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:08DET +7% win prob(3:08) 68-T.Decker reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 68-T.Decker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:14LA +7% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Everett.
3rd · 13:35LA +7% win prob(13:35) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 47 for -2 yards (98-D.Harrison). FUMBLES (98-D.Harrison) [98-D.Harrison], RECOVERED by DET-98-D.Harrison at LA 47. 98-D.Harrison to LA 47 for no gain (65-J.Sullivan).
4th · 11:34LA +5% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 41 for -6 yards (99-A.Donald).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robert Woods's 8-yard touchdown catch with 2:33 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:20Greg Zuerlein·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
2nd12:26Matt Prater·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+33–3
2nd2:33Robert Woods·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+710–3
2nd0:48Greg Zuerlein·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+313–3
3rd8:01Matt Prater·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+313–6
3rd5:51Greg Zuerlein·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+316–6
3rd3:08Taylor Decker·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+716–13
Rams ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Rams: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.23Lions: −0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Rams: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.24Lions: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Rams: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.20Lions: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 62 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Lions’s 64 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Lions 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, −9.6 pts, is past their previous low of −4.9 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +14.5 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Lions11.4%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.6%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 17.1% and 1.7 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford sacked−26% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:26) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 29 for -13 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at DET 24. 50-S.Ebukam to DET 24 for no gain (87-L.Toilolo).
Q4 8:26 · Lions · 1st & 10 at DET 42 · lost 18 · -6.72 EP · −26.4% win probability
174 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
654
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.0256%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.4041%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.1483%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.6738%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Lions 47
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 4 to the Lions 33
Rams3Lions0
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Lions 6
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 30
2nd quarter54 plays
Rams3Lions3
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 7
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 37
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 27
Rams9Lions3
Rams10Lions3
Touchdown17 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Lions 8
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 31
Rams13Lions3
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Lions 29
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 39
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 49
Rams13Lions6
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Rams 4
Rams16Lions6
Field goal2 plays
Drive ended3 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
Rams16Lions12
Rams16Lions13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Rams 11
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 48
4th quarter58 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 40
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 47
Punt4 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 42
Rams22Lions13
Rams23Lions13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Lions 13
Rams23Lions16
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 15
Rams29Lions16
Rams30Lions16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Lions 2
Intercepted11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 14
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ramscategory by categoryLions
Rams3
Lions0
