2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Ford Field

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Detroit Lions

LA -10.5 ✓U 54 ✓DomeRams closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Los Angeles Rams 30–16. Biggest swing: Q4 8:26, LA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:26LA — DET DET ball · 1st & 10LA 74%

(8:26) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 29 for -13 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at DET 24. 50-S.Ebukam to DET 24 for no gain (87-L.Toilolo).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:26LA +16% win prob(8:26) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 29 for -13 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at DET 24. 50-S.Ebukam to DET 24 for no gain (87-L.Toilolo).
Q2 · 2:33DET +8% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:08DET +7% win prob(3:08) 68-T.Decker reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 68-T.Decker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:14LA +7% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Everett.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Lions
Offensive plays	62	64
Total yards	346 (edge)	310
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.23
Success rate	42% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	56%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	2

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

20/33, 245 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.9 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

17/33, 207 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -11.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

23 att, 132 yds, 2 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

LeGarrette BlountRB

16 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Levine ToiloloTE

4/6 for 90 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

5/8 for 67 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	8	24	3:04	Punt
2	DET	DET 4	8	29	3:59	Punt
3	LA	LA 20	10	74	4:40	Turnover on downs
4	DET	DET 25	11	65	5:53	Turnover on downs
5	LA	LA 26	5	11	2:17	Interception
6	DET	DET 25	4	2	1:30	Punt
7	LA	LA 29	13	71	6:09	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	5	-7	0:55	Punt
9	LA	LA 32	6	39	0:50	Turnover on downs
10	DET	DET 25	6	19	0:33	Punt
11	LA	LA 8	1	0	0:10	End of half
12	DET	DET 25	5	3	0:57	Punt
13	LA	LA 26	2	21	0:42	Fumble
14	DET	LA 47	9	51	5:25	Turnover on downs
15	LA	DET 38	4	3	2:10	Turnover on downs
16	LA	DET 25	6	67	2:44	Touchdown
17	LA	LA 21	15	42	5:18	Punt
18	DET	DET 20	5	26	2:32	Punt
19	LA	LA 16	4	0	0:24	Punt
20	DET	DET 31	3	-7	1:35	Fumble
21	LA	DET 24	4	24	1:20	Touchdown
22	DET	DET 25	9	10	3:59	Turnover on downs
23	LA	DET 45	7	45	1:00	Touchdown
24	DET	DET 25	8	44	1:42	Interception
25	LA	LA 20	1	0	0:12	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 74 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	17/33	207	1	1	2	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	23	132	5.7	2	4.9
Robert Woods	2	11	5.5	0	0.6
Malcolm Brown	2	8	4.0	0	-0.2
Jared Goff	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	5	8	67	1	25%	7.3
Brandin Cooks	4	6	62	0	19%	-0.1
Todd Gurley	3	5	33	0	16%	1.2
Tyler Higbee	2	4	19	0	13%	-0.0
Josh Reynolds	2	5	19	0	16%	-2.5
Gerald Everett	1	3	7	0	9%	-1.3
Pharoh Cooper	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
John Johnson	9	2	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	5	1	2.0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	5	1	0.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	5	1	0.0	0
Dante Fowler	5	0	1.0	0
Cory Littleton	2	2	1.0	1
Marqui Christian	2	1	0.0	0
Mark Barron	3	0	0.0	0
Nickell Robey	2	1	0.0	0
Marcus Peters	2	0	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	20/33	245	1	1	4	-8.9
Bruce Ellington	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
LeGarrette Blount	16	61	3.8	-2.9
Theo Riddick	8	32	4.0	-1.9
Zach Zenner	1	7	7.0	0.3
Matthew Stafford	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Levine Toilolo	4	6	90	0	18%	4.7
Kenny Golladay	3	8	50	0	24%	-2.7
Bruce Ellington	7	10	35	0	30%	-3.9
Theo Riddick	3	4	26	0	12%	1.3
T.J. Jones	1	1	25	0	3%	1.6
Taylor Decker	1	1	11	1	3%	1.6
Luke Willson	1	2	8	0	6%	0.2
LeGarrette Blount	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Damon Harrison	3	4	1.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	5	1	0.0	1	2
Mike Ford	6	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Jones	3	3	0.0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jarrad Davis	2	3	0.0	0	0
Nevin Lawson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Darius Slay	3	0	0.0	0	0
Eli Harold	1	1	1.0	0	1
Miles Killebrew	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -10.5
Closing total: 54
LA moneyline: -450
DET moneyline: +385

Rams closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 54; the game landed 46 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Parry
Rest: LA 13 days · DET 10 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Matt Patricia