2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Gillette Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -6 ✓U 50 ✓Patriots closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.

New England Patriots 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 0:42, NE +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:42MIN — NE NE ball · 1st & 10NE 74%

(:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gordon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 508th career TD pass, ties Favre for 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 579th career TD pass (including postseason), ties P.Man

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:42NE +13% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gordon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 508th career TD pass, ties Favre for 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 579th career TD pass (including postseason), ties P.Manning for most all-time.
Q3 · 6:26MIN +10% win prob(6:26) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q3 · 2:24NE +8% win prob(2:24) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
Q2 · 0:19NE +6% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Patriots
Offensive plays	59	70
Total yards	278	471 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	42%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	78%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	3/12	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

24/32, 311 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

9.4 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

32/44, 201 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-11.6 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

9 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

17 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

James WhiteRB

7/9 for 92 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Josh GordonWR

3/3 for 58 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	5	8	1:35	Punt
2	NE	NE 19	9	86	3:52	Touchdown
3	MIN	MIN 25	9	45	4:07	Turnover on downs
4	NE	NE 38	7	16	2:52	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 10	7	18	3:33	Punt
6	NE	NE 31	15	68	8:16	Turnover on downs
7	MIN	MIN 34	6	23	2:38	Punt
8	NE	NE 17	4	9	1:15	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 26	8	74	1:37	Touchdown
10	NE	NE 40	3	49	0:15	End of half
11	NE	NE 36	5	4	0:39	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 17	4	5	1:44	Punt
13	NE	NE 24	12	71	6:16	Turnover on downs
14	MIN	MIN 38	12	51	4:01	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 25	6	75	1:45	Touchdown
16	MIN	MIN 25	5	-5	1:29	Punt
17	NE	50	7	30	3:12	Touchdown
18	MIN	MIN 29	11	37	4:44	Turnover on downs
19	NE	NE 44	2	3	0:45	Interception
20	MIN	MIN 45	3	13	0:44	Interception
21	NE	NE 20	12	60	3:53	Punt
22	MIN	MIN 20	2	9	0:27	Interception
23	NE	MIN 42	1	0	0:21	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	32/44	201	1	2	2	-11.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	9	84	9.3	0	2.1
Latavius Murray	4	11	2.8	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	5	6	49	0	14%	1.3
Kyle Rudolph	3	3	38	0	7%	3.3
Aldrick Robinson	5	9	37	0	20%	-2.5
Adam Thielen	5	10	28	1	23%	-3.7
Dalvin Cook	8	10	22	0	23%	-3.7
Laquon Treadwell	2	2	13	0	5%	-1.1
C.J. Ham	2	2	11	0	5%	0.5
Latavius Murray	2	2	3	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	7	8	1	1
Anthony Harris	5	2	0	1
Linval Joseph	5	2	0	0
Anthony Barr	6	0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	4	2	0	0
Everson Griffen	2	3	0	0
Mackensie Alexander	3	1	0	1
Ben Gedeon	2	2	0	0
Harrison Smith	2	2	0	0
Jayron Kearse	3	0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	24/32	311	1	1	0	9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	17	63	3.7	0	-1.4
Julian Edelman	2	35	17.5	0	2.3
James White	6	26	4.3	0	-1.7
Rex Burkhead	7	20	2.9	0	-2.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	6	6.0	0	0.4
Tom Brady	2	5	2.5	0	-0.1
James Develin	4	5	1.3	2	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James White	7	9	92	0	28%	1.4
Josh Gordon	3	3	58	1	9%	5.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	53	0	6%	3.8
Rob Gronkowski	3	4	26	0	13%	0.3
Julian Edelman	3	8	25	0	25%	-7.2
Rex Burkhead	2	2	21	0	6%	1.1
Chris Hogan	2	2	20	0	6%	3.6
James Develin	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Sony Michel	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Devin McCourty	6	2	0
Jason McCourty	5	1	0
Kyle Van Noy	4	1	0
Malcom Brown	1	4	0
Elandon Roberts	2	3	0
Dont'a Hightower	2	3	0
J.C. Jackson	4	0	1
Patrick Chung	2	1	0
Lawrence Guy	1	2	0
Stephon Gilmore	2	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -6
Closing total: 50
MIN moneyline: +217
NE moneyline: -244

Patriots closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 50; the game landed 34 — under by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: MIN 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Bill Belichick