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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 10 at New England Patriots 24. Final.
Patriots -6 ✓U 50 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
New England Patriots 24, Vikings 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:42, 1st and 10, on Josh Gordon — 13.4 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:42 · 1st and 10
Josh Gordon
Patriots
(:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gordon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 508th career TD pass, ties Favre for 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 579th career TD pass (including postseason), ties P.Manning for most all-time.
Patriots closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.
New England Patriots 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 0:42, Patriots +13.4% win probability on one snap.
13.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Stephen GostkowskiVikingsQ3 6:26(6:26) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
9.6pts
Dan BaileyVikingsQ3 2:24(2:24) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
8.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Patriots at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Patriots won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Vikings at 3 of 12 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Vikings164 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gordon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 508th career TD pass, ties Favre for 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 579th career TD pass (including postseason), ties P.Man
Swing +13.4 for PatriotsExpected points +2.49 for PatriotsThe model had Vikings 6 points higher than the market did.play 121
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:42NE +13% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gordon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 508th career TD pass, ties Favre for 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 579th career TD pass (including postseason), ties P.Manning for most all-time.
3rd · 6:26MIN +10% win prob(6:26) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3rd · 2:24NE +8% win prob(2:24) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
2nd · 0:19NE +6% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:57NE +6% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph pushed ob at NE 40 for 5 yards (22-O.Melifonwu). New England challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
3rd · 2:28MIN +5% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 17-A.Robinson.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Gordon's 24-yard touchdown catch with 0:42 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Vikings: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.13Patriots: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Vikings: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.32Patriots: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Vikings: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.04Patriots: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 59 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Patriots’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Patriots 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.4 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots13.0%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.0%, 11.4 points below their season mean of 14.5% and 1.3 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gordon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 508th career TD pass, ties Favre for 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 579th career TD pass (including postseason), ties P.Manning for most all-time.
Q3 0:42 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at MIN 24 · gained 24 · +2.49 EP · +13.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 86 yards from the NE 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
749
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1478%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR33+0.0233%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1768%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 33
Vikings0Patriots6
Vikings0Patriots7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Vikings 1
No good9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Patriots 22
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Vikings 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 24
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 28
Vikings0Patriots10
Field goal15 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Vikings 1
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Patriots 45
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 26
Vikings6Patriots10
Vikings7Patriots10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Patriots 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 47
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Patriots 40
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 22
No good14 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Vikings 25
Vikings10Patriots10
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Patriots 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Vikings10Patriots16
Vikings10Patriots17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Vikings 24
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays
Vikings10Patriots23
Vikings10Patriots24
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Vikings 2
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Patriots 47
Intercepted2 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 47
Intercepted3 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Patriots 42
Punt16 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Vikings 35
Intercepted2 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 29
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Vikingscategory by categoryPatriots
Vikings0
Patriots6
