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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 10 at Dallas Cowboys 13. Final.
Saints -7 upsetU 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Dallas Cowboys 13, Saints 10 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:16, 2nd and 5, on Jourdan Lewis — 30.9 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:16 · 2nd and 5
Jourdan Lewis
Cowboys
(2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis [96-M.Collins] at NO 23. 27-J.Lewis to NO 16 for 7 yards (71-R.Ramczyk). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Dome
Saints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:16, Cowboys +30.9% win probability on one snap.
30.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ezekiel ElliottCowboysQ1 1:05(1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.3pts
Dak PrescottSaintsQ4 2:42(2:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at NO 15 for -9 yards (94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (94-C.Jordan) [94-C.Jordan], RECOVERED by NO-94-C.Jordan at NO 15. Penalty on DAL-71-L.Collins, Offensive Holding, declined.
22.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Saints at 3 of 11 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — -0.09 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.35 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.05 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Saints146 of 156 plays carry both curves
(2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis [96-M.Collins] at NO 23. 27-J.Lewis to NO 16 for 7 yards (71-R.Ramczyk). The Replay Official reviewed the intercep
Swing +30.9 for CowboysExpected points +5.15 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 14 points higher than the market did.play 149
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:16NO +31% win prob(2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis [96-M.Collins] at NO 23. 27-J.Lewis to NO 16 for 7 yards (71-R.Ramczyk). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 2:42NO +22% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at NO 15 for -9 yards (94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (94-C.Jordan) [94-C.Jordan], RECOVERED by NO-94-C.Jordan at NO 15. Penalty on DAL-71-L.Collins, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 1:05DAL +13% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:15DAL +12% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 18-K.Kirkwood for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:25DAL +12% win prob(11:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup to NO 6 for 40 yards (25-E.Apple).
3rd · 1:58DAL +12% win prob(1:58) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to DAL 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley. PENALTY on DAL-94-R.Gregory, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 48 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brett Maher's 26-yard field goal with 9:27 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:27Brett Maher·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.LadouceurLead never changed again+30–3
1st1:05Ezekiel Elliott·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+70–10
2nd0:55Brett Maher·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+30–13
3rd10:03Wil Lutz·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–13
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.35Saints: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.09Cowboys: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.31Saints: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.05Cowboys: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.40Saints: −0.40 expected points added per play
−0.29Cowboys: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 49 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 63 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cowboys20.0%
leaned — got home · +4.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 4.4 pts, 6.2 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.5 times their own 4.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 9 never used
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%52 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%52 snaps
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%52 snaps
60Max UngerC · Every snap100%52 snaps
74Jermon BushrodT · Every snap100%52 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time98%51 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Full-time85%44 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation69%36 snaps
18Keith KirkwoodWR · Heavy rotation52%27 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation50%26 snaps
22Mark IngramRB · Rotational40%21 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Rotational38%20 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Rotational27%14 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Situational23%12 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational13%7 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Situational2%1 snap
65Michael OlaT · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Will ClappCKen CrawleyCBTrey HendricksonDEMitchell LoewenDEManti Te'oMLBTeddy BridgewaterQBTerron ArmsteadTTommylee LewisWRBrandon MarshallWR
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 8 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%71 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%71 snaps
76Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Every snap100%71 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%71 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%71 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time89%63 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation79%56 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Heavy rotation73%52 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation66%47 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational39%28 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Situational23%16 snaps
80Rico GathersTE · Situational14%10 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational13%9 snaps
45Rod SmithRB · Situational11%8 snaps
27Jourdan LewisCB · Situational3%2 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Situational3%2 snaps
14Lance LenoirWR · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
David IrvingDESean LeeILBChris CovingtonLBMike WhiteQBCooper RushQBTyron SmithTGeoff SwaimTETavon AustinWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis [96-M.Collins] at NO 23. 27-J.Lewis to NO 16 for 7 yards (71-R.Ramczyk). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 2:16 · Saints · 2nd & 5 at NO 20 · gained nothing · -5.15 EP · −19.3% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 88 yards from the NO 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
39%
Yards
484
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1767%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.2572%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.6033%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1583%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5-0.400%
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.380%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Saints0Cowboys3
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Saints 5
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 37
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 30
Saints0Cowboys9
Saints0Cowboys10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Saints 15
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Saints 16
2nd quarter36 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 26
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 33
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Cowboys 1
Saints0Cowboys13
Field goal18 plays, from the Cowboys 2 to the Saints 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 28
3rd quarter40 plays
Saints3Cowboys13
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cowboys 15
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Saints9Cowboys13
Saints10Cowboys13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Cowboys 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
4th quarter38 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Cowboys 32
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Cowboys 42
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost18 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Saints 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Saints 20
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Saintscategory by categoryCowboys
Saints0
Cowboys3
