2018 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 29, 2018 · AT&T Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Dallas CowboysWinner

NO -7 upsetU 51.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:16, NO +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:16NO — DAL NO ball · 2nd & 5DAL 60%

(2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis [96-M.Collins] at NO 23. 27-J.Lewis to NO 16 for 7 yards (71-R.Ramczyk). The Replay Official reviewed the intercep

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:16NO +31% win prob(2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis [96-M.Collins] at NO 23. 27-J.Lewis to NO 16 for 7 yards (71-R.Ramczyk). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 2:42NO +22% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at NO 15 for -9 yards (94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (94-C.Jordan) [94-C.Jordan], RECOVERED by NO-94-C.Jordan at NO 15. Penalty on DAL-71-L.Collins, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 · 1:05DAL +13% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:15DAL +12% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 18-K.Kirkwood for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Cowboys
Offensive plays	49	63
Total yards	176	312 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.35	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	33%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	-0.29 (edge)
Third downs	3/11	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	7
Turnovers	2	2

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.35.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

24/28, 249 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

18/28, 127 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.4 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

23 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

11 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Michael GallupWR

5/7 for 76 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

8/8 for 76 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	13	67	5:36	Turnover on downs
2	NO	NO 22	5	0	0:35	Punt
3	DAL	DAL 29	4	5	2:15	Punt
4	NO	NO 26	4	4	1:27	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 15	9	80	4:10	Touchdown
6	NO	NO 9	7	17	2:25	Punt
7	DAL	DAL 32	2	6	0:39	Fumble
8	NO	DAL 39	7	38	2:53	Turnover on downs
9	DAL	DAL 2	16	70	9:09	Turnover on downs
10	NO	NO 25	4	0	0:51	End of half
11	NO	NO 25	11	45	5:00	Turnover on downs
12	DAL	DAL 25	8	11	4:13	Punt
13	NO	NO 12	11	47	4:39	Touchdown
14	DAL	DAL 25	5	17	2:03	Punt
15	NO	NO 34	8	20	4:50	Fumble
16	DAL	DAL 20	14	54	6:40	Fumble
17	NO	NO 15	2	5	0:27	Interception
18	DAL	NO 16	4	2	2:08	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	18/28	127	1	1	2	-9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	11	36	3.3	-5.8
Mark Ingram	7	27	3.9	-2.4
Drew Brees	1	2	2.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	5	8	40	0	29%	0.5
Alvin Kamara	8	11	36	0	39%	-9.7
Keith Kirkwood	1	3	30	1	11%	2.9
Dan Arnold	2	2	20	0	7%	1.3
Mark Ingram	2	3	1	0	11%	-2.4
Tre'Quan Smith	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Demario Davis	5	6	0.0
Marshon Lattimore	8	1	0.0
David Onyemata	4	3	3.0
Cameron Jordan	3	4	2.0
Eli Apple	3	3	0.0
Vonn Bell	1	5	0.0
A.J. Klein	2	3	1.0
Alex Anzalone	3	2	0.0
Alex Okafor	1	3	0.0
Sheldon Rankins	2	2	0.0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	24/28	249	1	0	7	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	23	75	3.3	-5.5
Dak Prescott	5	22	4.4	-2.4
Rod Smith	3	2	0.7	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Gallup	5	7	76	0	25%	4.7
Amari Cooper	8	8	76	0	29%	-0.3
Ezekiel Elliott	6	6	60	1	21%	4.1
Blake Jarwin	1	1	12	0	4%	1.8
Noah Brown	1	1	9	0	4%	0.7
Cole Beasley	2	3	9	0	11%	-0.2
Dalton Schultz	1	2	7	0	7%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	6	4	0.0	0
Jaylon Smith	6	3	0.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	4	0	0.0	1
Jeff Heath	3	1	0.0	0
Tyrone Crawford	1	3	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	2	1	0.0	0
Anthony Brown	2	1	1.0	2
Amari Cooper	1	0	0.0	0
Noah Brown	1	0	0.0	0
Randy Gregory	1	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7
Closing total: 51.5
NO moneyline: -313
DAL moneyline: +275

Saints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 23 — under by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: NO 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Jason Garrett