2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · Nissan Stadium

New York Jets

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -10.5 no coverO 40.5 ✓Titans closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Tennessee Titans 26–22. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, TEN +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:42NYJ — TEN TEN ball · 3rd & 7TEN 62%

(:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:42TEN +26% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:22TEN +21% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor pushed ob at NYJ 10 for 55 yards (27-D.Roberts).
Q4 · 1:27TEN +19% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles up the middle to TEN 44 for 25 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), and recovers at TEN 46. 8-M.Mariota to TEN 46 for no gain (33-J.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 46.
Q1 · 8:09NYJ +18% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 17-C.Batson INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Johnson [96-H.Anderson] at TEN 31. 22-T.Johnson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Titans
Offensive plays	65	59
Total yards	280	404 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	35%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	51%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	4/15 (edge)	1/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

20/35, 282 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Josh McCownQB

17/30, 128 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-6.9 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Isaiah CrowellRB

21 att, 98 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

10 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Taywan TaylorWR

3/5 for 104 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Tajae SharpeWR

3/6 for 51 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	1	1:42	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 39	8	35	3:43	Turnover on downs
3	TEN	TEN 25	4	6	1:36	Defensive touchdown
4	TEN	TEN 25	7	22	4:27	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	14	74	6:51	Turnover on downs
6	TEN	TEN 25	8	30	3:20	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	8	2:04	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 36	4	5	1:15	Punt
9	NYJ	TEN 18	4	3	2:11	Turnover on downs
10	TEN	TEN 32	8	62	1:54	Touchdown
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	3	7	0:57	End of half
12	NYJ	TEN 42	5	2	1:13	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 20	4	4	0:40	Punt
14	NYJ	NYJ 40	6	39	2:28	Turnover on downs
15	TEN	TEN 25	8	75	2:55	Touchdown
16	NYJ	NYJ 24	16	65	7:18	Turnover on downs
17	TEN	TEN 25	6	25	0:48	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 10	4	2	1:01	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 36	8	53	4:08	Turnover on downs
20	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	4	2:07	Punt
21	TEN	TEN 35	5	50	1:43	Turnover on downs
22	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	8	1:46	Punt
23	TEN	TEN 20	4	5	0:40	Punt
24	NYJ	NYJ 22	5	13	1:27	Punt
25	TEN	TEN 14	7	66	1:10	Touchdown
26	NYJ	NYJ 25	3	20	0:16	Interception
27	TEN	TEN 11	1	0	0:20	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh McCown	17/30	128	0	1	2	-6.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isaiah Crowell	21	98	4.7	-2.0
Elijah McGuire	6	19	3.2	-0.7
Andre Roberts	1	18	18.0	1.9
Trenton Cannon	4	18	4.5	-0.5
Josh McCown	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Robbie Chosen	4	7	48	23%	1.5
Christopher Herndon	2	6	31	20%	-3.5
Jordan Leggett	2	2	18	7%	1.6
Andre Roberts	1	1	10	3%	1.3
Isaiah Crowell	4	5	9	17%	-1.3
Quincy Enunwa	2	6	9	20%	-2.2
Trenton Cannon	1	1	7	3%	0.1
Elijah McGuire	1	2	-4	7%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jamal Adams	8	1	1.0	0	0
Avery Williamson	3	4	0.0	0	0
Darron Lee	3	4	0.0	0	0
Mike Pennel	0	3	0.0	0	1
Trumaine Johnson	3	0	0.0	1	1
Jordan Jenkins	3	0	1.0	0	0
Morris Claiborne	3	0	0.0	0	0
Darryl Roberts	2	0	0.0	0	0
Frankie Luvu	1	1	1.0	0	0
Christopher Herndon	1	0	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	20/35	282	2	1	3	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marcus Mariota	4	43	10.8	0	1.9
Derrick Henry	10	40	4.0	1	0.7
Dion Lewis	6	36	6.0	0	-0.4
Corey Davis	1	12	12.0	0	0.8
Blaine Gabbert	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Taywan Taylor	3	5	104	0	15%	3.6
Tajae Sharpe	3	6	51	0	18%	1.1
Corey Davis	3	7	42	1	21%	2.1
Anthony Firkser	3	3	42	1	9%	4.2
Jonnu Smith	2	3	29	0	9%	0.5
Cameron Batson	1	2	7	0	6%	-6.9
Derrick Henry	2	2	5	0	6%	-0.9
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	4	0	3%	-1.9
Darius Jennings	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.7
Dion Lewis	2	3	-2	0	9%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Adoree' Jackson	7	0	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	3	3	0.0	0	0
Harold Landry	3	3	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Butler	2	3	0.0	1	1
Jayon Brown	4	1	1.0	0	1
Logan Ryan	3	2	0.0	0	1
Jurrell Casey	3	1	1.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	1	2	0.0	0	0
LeShaun Sims	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -10.5
Closing total: 40.5
NYJ moneyline: +370
TEN moneyline: -431

Titans closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 48 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: NYJ 7 days · TEN 6 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Mike Vrabel