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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:09 AM ET · 16 to play
Tennessee Titans 26, Jets 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:42, 3rd and 7, on Corey Davis — 25.8 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:42 · 3rd and 7
Corey Davis
Titans
(:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Titans closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Tennessee Titans 26–22. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, Titans +25.8% win probability on one snap.
25.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Taywan TaylorTitansQ4 7:22(7:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor pushed ob at NYJ 10 for 55 yards (27-D.Roberts).
21.3pts
Marcus MariotaTitansQ4 1:27(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles up the middle to TEN 44 for 25 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), and recovers at TEN 46. 8-M.Mariota to TEN 46 for no gain (33-J.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 46.
18.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 15 on third down, against Titans at 1 of 11 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Jets178 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +25.8 for TitansExpected points +3.28 for TitansThe model had Jets 6 points higher than the market did.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:42TEN +26% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:22TEN +21% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor pushed ob at NYJ 10 for 55 yards (27-D.Roberts).
4th · 1:27TEN +19% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles up the middle to TEN 44 for 25 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), and recovers at TEN 46. 8-M.Mariota to TEN 46 for no gain (33-J.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 46.
1st · 8:09NYJ +18% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 17-C.Batson INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Johnson [96-H.Anderson] at TEN 31. 22-T.Johnson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:38TEN +13% win prob(3:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to NYJ 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
4th · 1:11TEN +13% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-A.Firkser to NYJ 14 for 25 yards (30-R.Robinson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Corey Davis's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:42 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:40Jason Myers·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+33–0
3rd0:31Jason Myers·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+322–13
4th9:33Ryan Succop·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+322–16
4th5:44Ryan Succop·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+322–19
4th0:42Corey Davis·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus MariotaLead never changed again+722–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryTitans
Jets2–6Titans
280Total yards404
4.3Yards per play6.8
35%Success rate37%
27%Third-down rate9%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays12
15First downs17
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Jets: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.09Titans: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.14Titans: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Jets: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.02Titans: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 65 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Titans’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Titans 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.1% in week 12 against 44.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.9 pts in week 12 against −6.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Titans18.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 34.7 points below their season mean of 34.7% and 1.3 times their own 26.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass+25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:42 · Titans · 3rd & 7 at NYJ 11 · gained 11 · +3.28 EP · +24.9% win probability
177 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 86 yards from the TEN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
683
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1575%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1556%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2043%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2838%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0922%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1467%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.4650%
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 30
Jets3Titans0
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Titans 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jets9Titans0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 31
Jets10Titans0
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 44
2nd quarter46 plays
Jets13Titans0
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Titans 16
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jets 45
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 28
Punt4 plays
Jets16Titans0
Field goal5 plays
Jets16Titans6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Jets 12
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Titans 40
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 24
Jets19Titans6
Field goal7 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Titans 17
Jets19Titans12
Jets19Titans13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jets 1
Jets22Titans13
Field goal16 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Titans 21
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 43
4th quarter58 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 12
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Jets22Titans16
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Jets 5
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Jets22Titans19
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Jets 10
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 25
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jets22Titans25
Jets22Titans26
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Jets 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -10.5
Closing total
40.5
Jets moneyline
+370
Titans moneyline
-431
Titans closed -10.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 48 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Jets 7 days · Titans 6 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Mike Vrabel
4th · 12:23TEN +12% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor to NYJ 9 for 44 yards (21-M.Claiborne).
4th · 0:29NYJ +11% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep right intended for 89-C.Herndon INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 21. 21-M.Butler to TEN 21 for no gain (89-C.Herndon). PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 21.
