2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · CenturyLink Field

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -10 ✓O 45.5 ✓Seahawks closed -10 and covered, winning by 27.

Seattle Seahawks 43–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, SEA +4% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:14SF — SEA SEA ball · 2nd & 6SEA 83%

(5:14) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-J.Brown pushed ob at SF 25 for 45 yards (29-J.Tartt).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:14SEA +4% win prob(5:14) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-J.Brown pushed ob at SF 25 for 45 yards (29-J.Tartt).
Q1 · 7:30SEA +4% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 24 for 14 yards (37-T.Flowers; 42-D.Hill) [54-B.Wagner].
Q1 · 1:32SEA +4% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 18-J.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-24-K.Williams, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q1 · 10:08SF +3% win prob(10:08) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson left guard to SEA 45 for 3 yards (91-A.Armstead).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Seahawks
Offensive plays	73	48
Total yards	452 (edge)	332
Yards per play	6.2	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10	0.36 (edge)
Success rate	41%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10	0.54 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.52	0.20 (edge)
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

49ers outgained Seahawks 452–332 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

30/48, 414 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.7 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

11/17, 185 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

13 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

7 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Dante PettisWR

5/7 for 129 yds, 2 TD

17% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

8/9 for 73 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 14	8	7	4:23	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 37	4	9	1:47	Punt
3	SF	SF 7	7	23	3:02	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 26	8	79	4:23	Touchdown
5	SF	SF 25	5	11	1:32	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 43	3	67	1:12	Touchdown
7	SF	SF 22	9	58	4:10	Fumble
8	SEA	SEA 14	7	17	3:01	Punt
9	SF	SF 28	5	14	2:18	Punt
10	SEA	SEA 10	4	9	2:21	Punt
11	SEA	SF 33	6	11	0:34	Touchdown
12	SF	SF 43	8	35	1:17	Turnover on downs
13	SEA	SF 20	3	20	0:16	Touchdown
14	SF	SF 42	9	63	3:20	Touchdown
15	SEA	SEA 28	7	20	3:56	Punt
16	SF	SF 10	9	46	4:48	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 12	7	40	3:23	Touchdown
18	SF	SF 25	3	75	0:11	Touchdown
19	SEA	SEA 25	12	60	6:20	Turnover on downs
20	SF	SF 25	10	70	3:42	Defensive touchdown
21	SF	SF 25	17	50	3:47	Turnover on downs
22	SEA	SEA 20	1	0	0:17	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 79 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	30/48	414	2	1	3	5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	15	61	4.1	-5.2
Matt Breida	5	6	1.2	-2.3
Nick Mullens	2	1	0.5	-3.8
Dante Pettis	1	-2	-2.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dante Pettis	5	7	129	2	17%	11.4
Jeffery Wilson	8	9	73	0	21%	-5.2
George Kittle	6	9	70	0	21%	4.1
Kendrick Bourne	4	7	60	0	17%	1.6
Matt Breida	3	3	51	0	7%	3.3
Kyle Juszczyk	3	3	20	0	7%	1.8
Trent Taylor	1	2	11	0	5%	1.2
Richie James	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
DeForest Buckner	3	4	2.0	0
Fred Warner	1	6	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	3	4	0.0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	4	0	0.0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	4	0	0.0	1
Marcell Harris	2	2	0.0	0
Mark Nzeocha	2	1	0.0	0
K'Waun Williams	2	0	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	1	1	0.0	0
Ronald Blair	1	1	1.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	11/17	185	4	0	3	10.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	13	69	5.3	0	0.8
Rashaad Penny	7	65	9.3	1	4.1
Russell Wilson	4	14	3.5	0	1.6
Tyler Lockett	1	10	10.0	0	1.1
Mike Davis	4	10	2.5	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaron Brown	3	3	67	2	18%	9.0
Tyler Lockett	1	2	52	1	12%	4.3
Chris Carson	3	4	39	0	24%	1.6
Doug Baldwin	2	4	22	1	24%	3.5
Nick Vannett	1	1	4	0	6%	-0.1
Malik Turner	1	1	1	0	6%	-0.7
J.D. McKissic	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.5
David Moore	0	1	0	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	7	4	1.0	1	2
Justin Coleman	8	2	0.5	0	1
Austin Calitro	6	3	0.0	0	0
Bradley McDougald	8	1	0.0	0	0
Tedric Thompson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	0	0.0	0	0
Delano Hill	1	2	0.0	0	0
Tre Flowers	2	1	0.0	0	0
Frank Clark	2	1	0.0	0	1
Jarran Reed	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -10
Closing total: 45.5
SF moneyline: +411
SEA moneyline: -500

Seahawks closed -10 and covered, winning by 27.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 59 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: SF 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.