For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2018 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 2, 2018 · CenturyLink Field
Final
49ersSan Francisco16
BY 27final margin
SeahawksSeattle43
San Francisco 49ers 16 at Seattle Seahawks 43. Final.
Seahawks -10 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Seattle Seahawks 43, 49ers 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:14, 2nd and 6, on Jaron Brown — 4.4 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:14 · 2nd and 6
Jaron Brown
Seahawks
(5:14) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-J.Brown pushed ob at SF 25 for 45 yards (29-J.Tartt).
Seahawks closed -10 and covered, winning by 27.
Seattle Seahawks 43–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, Seahawks +4.4% win probability on one snap.
4.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
George Kittle49ersQ1 7:30(7:30) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 24 for 14 yards (37-T.Flowers; 42-D.Hill) [54-B.Wagner].
4.0pts
Jaron BrownSeahawksQ1 1:32(1:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 18-J.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-24-K.Williams, Illegal Contact, declined.
3.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.36 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on 49ers172 of 184 plays carry both curves
(5:14) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-J.Brown pushed ob at SF 25 for 45 yards (29-J.Tartt).
Swing +4.4 for SeahawksExpected points +3.34 for SeahawksThe model had 49ers 22 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:14SEA +4% win prob(5:14) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-J.Brown pushed ob at SF 25 for 45 yards (29-J.Tartt).
1st · 7:30SEA +4% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 24 for 14 yards (37-T.Flowers; 42-D.Hill) [54-B.Wagner].
1st · 1:32SEA +4% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 18-J.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-24-K.Williams, Illegal Contact, declined.
1st · 10:08SF +3% win prob(10:08) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson left guard to SEA 45 for 3 yards (91-A.Armstead).
1st · 13:33SEA +3% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 41-J.Wilson to SF 25 for 5 yards (30-B.McDougald).
2nd · 13:49SEA +3% win prob(13:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Thomas].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaron Brown's 4-yard touchdown catch with 1:32 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:32Jaron Brown·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+60–6
2nd13:49Tyler Lockett·52-yd TD catch52-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+70–13
2nd1:20Doug Baldwin·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+70–20
2nd0:05Robbie Gould·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+33–20
3rd11:31Dante Pettis·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+710–27
4th14:24Jaron Brown·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+710–34
4th14:17Dante Pettis·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens · two-point no good+616–34
4th7:53Sebastian Janikowski·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+316–37
4th4:20Bobby Wagner·98-yd defence TD98-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, short+616–43
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categorySeahawks
49ers3–5Seahawks
452Total yards332
6.2Yards per play6.9
41%Success rate44%
47%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays10
23First downs15
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.1049ers: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.36Seahawks: +0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.1049ers: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.54Seahawks: +0.54 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.5249ers: −0.52 expected points added per play
+0.20Seahawks: +0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 73 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 48 at 48%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Seahawks 6.
Note49ers outgained Seahawks 452-332 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's sack or hit rate, 30.4%, sat 14.9 points above their season number of 15.5% — they got home by 2.1 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 12.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 28.0%, is past their previous high of 25.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 12.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 13 pts
off script — got home · +14.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+2.12× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Seahawks28.0%
leaned — got home · +10.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.4%, 14.9 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 2.1 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:14) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-J.Brown pushed ob at SF 25 for 45 yards (29-J.Tartt).
Q1 5:14 · Seahawks · 2nd & 6 at SEA 30 · gained 45 · +3.34 EP · +10.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 88 yards from the SEA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
41%
Yards
783
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2288%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.1242%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.4252%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR10+0.1610%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.4629%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+1.5560%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+1.7480%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 30
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Seahawks 46
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 7 to the 49ers 30
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
49ers0Seahawks6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the 49ers 4
Punt5 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
49ers0Seahawks12
49ers0Seahawks13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the 49ers 42
Fumble lost9 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Seahawks 14
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 31
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 14
49ers0Seahawks19
49ers0Seahawks20
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 1
49ers3Seahawks20
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the Seahawks 27
3rd quarter39 plays
49ers3Seahawks26
49ers3Seahawks27
Touchdown3 plays
49ers9Seahawks27
49ers10Seahawks27
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Seahawks 17
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 39
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the Seahawks 33
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the 49ers 11
4th quarter57 plays
49ers10Seahawks33
49ers10Seahawks34
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 18
49ers16Seahawks34
Touchdown3 plays
49ers16Seahawks37
Field goal15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 1
49ers16Seahawks43
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 5
Turnover on downs21 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -10
Closing total
45.5
49ers moneyline
+411
Seahawks moneyline
-500
Seahawks closed -10 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 59 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 45°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-west; 0.05 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
49ers 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Pete Carroll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 9:47
SF +3% win prob
(9:47) 41-J.Wilson left guard to SEA 5 for 9 yards (54-B.Wagner; 33-T.Thompson). FUMBLES (54-B.Wagner), RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at SEA 3. 54-B.Wagner to SEA 14 for 11 yards (69-M.McGlinchey). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 12:06SEA +2% win prob(12:06) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk to SF 30 for 7 yards (55-F.Clark).
