2018 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 3, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field

Washington Commanders

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -5.5 ✓U 45 ✓15 mph windEagles closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Philadelphia Eagles 28–13. Biggest swing: Q2 9:36, PHI +21% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:36WAS — PHI WAS ball · 1st & 10PHI 75%

(9:36) 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:36PHI +21% win prob(9:36) 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:34WAS +20% win prob(8:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman at WAS -2. 24-J.Norman to WAS 38 for 40 yards (62-J.Kelce; 33-J.Adams).
Q2 · 4:08WAS +12% win prob(4:08) 33-J.Adams up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (53-Z.Brown).
Q3 · 9:26PHI +10% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 19-G.Tate to WAS 5 for 32 yards (20-H.Clinton-Dix).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Eagles
Offensive plays	42	69
Total yards	235	442 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	36%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.19
Third downs	2/10	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	8	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

27/39, 306 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.6 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Mark SanchezQB

13/21, 100 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

9 att, 98 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Josh AdamsRB

20 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-5.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Golden TateWR

7/7 for 85 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

9/10 for 83 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	14	80	7:29	Touchdown
2	WAS	WAS 25	5	14	2:16	Punt
3	PHI	PHI 16	4	6	1:31	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 29	8	42	4:58	Turnover on downs
5	PHI	PHI 25	8	27	4:10	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 10	2	90	0:13	Touchdown
7	PHI	PHI 22	11	80	5:20	Turnover on downs
8	WAS	WAS 3	4	7	1:42	Punt
9	PHI	WAS 40	4	26	0:35	Touchdown
10	WAS	WAS 25	10	46	1:31	Turnover on downs
11	PHI	PHI 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
12	WAS	WAS 25	5	-1	1:40	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 25	8	70	4:58	Interception
14	WAS	WAS 38	6	18	3:31	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 15	12	87	5:41	Touchdown
16	WAS	WAS 25	4	12	1:33	Interception
17	PHI	WAS 35	4	7	0:56	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	WAS 25	5	0	1:39	Punt
19	PHI	PHI 27	10	42	5:14	Turnover on downs
20	WAS	WAS 25	8	7	1:38	Punt
21	PHI	PHI 25	6	17	3:10	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 90 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mark Sanchez	13/21	100	0	1	2	-8.6
Colt McCoy	4/4	50	0	0	1	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	9	98	10.9	1	4.0
Mark Sanchez	1	8	8.0	0	1.6
Chris Thompson	3	3	1.0	0	-2.2
Jamison Crowder	1	-5	-5.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Doctson	3	5	51	21%	0.5
Jamison Crowder	4	4	36	17%	0.7
Jordan Reed	4	5	21	21%	-0.1
Chris Thompson	3	5	18	21%	-1.8
Vernon Davis	2	2	15	8%	-0.4
Michael Floyd	1	2	9	8%	1.0
Maurice Harris	0	1	0	4%	-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Zach Brown	8	1	0
Fabian Moreau	6	2	2
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	7	0	0
Greg Stroman	6	1	0
Mason Foster	5	0	0
D.J. Swearinger	4	0	0
Preston Smith	3	0	0
Deshazor Everett	1	1	0
Adonis Alexander	2	0	0
Ryan Kerrigan	2	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	27/39	306	2	1	0	13.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Adams	20	85	4.3	0	-5.9
Corey Clement	5	27	5.4	0	-0.1
Darren Sproles	4	22	5.5	1	0.4
Carson Wentz	4	-4	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Golden Tate	7	7	85	1	18%	10.7
Zach Ertz	9	10	83	0	26%	5.2
Nelson Agholor	4	8	56	0	21%	-1.2
Corey Clement	3	3	47	0	8%	4.2
Alshon Jeffery	3	5	31	0	13%	-3.0
Jordan Matthews	1	2	4	1	5%	0.6
Dallas Goedert	0	3	0	0	8%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Rasul Douglas	6	1	0.0
Nigel Bradham	3	0	0.0
Fletcher Cox	3	0	1.0
Brandon Graham	3	0	1.0
Cre'von LeBlanc	3	0	0.0
Malcolm Jenkins	2	0	1.0
Haloti Ngata	1	1	0.0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	2	0	0.0
Michael Bennett	2	0	0.0
Sidney Jones	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -5.5
Closing total: 45
WAS moneyline: +213
PHI moneyline: -239

Eagles closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 45; the game landed 41 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: WAS 11 days · PHI 8 days
Coaches: Jay Gruden vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.