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2018 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 3, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CommandersWashington13
BY 15final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia28
Washington Commanders 13 at Philadelphia Eagles 28. Final.
Eagles -5.5 ✓U 45 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 13
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Commanders 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:36, 1st and 10, on Adrian Peterson — 21.1 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:36 · 1st and 10
Adrian Peterson
Commanders
(9:36) 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Eagles closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Philadelphia Eagles 28–13. Biggest swing: Q2 9:36, Commanders +21.1% win probability on one snap.
21.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh AdamsCommandersQ2 4:08(4:08) 33-J.Adams up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (53-Z.Brown).
11.9pts
Josh NormanCommandersQ3 8:34(8:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman at WAS -2. 24-J.Norman to WAS 38 for 40 yards (62-J.Kelce; 33-J.Adams).
20.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Commanders at 2 of 10 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Commanders154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(9:36) 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −21.1 for EaglesExpected points −6.99 for EaglesThe model had Commanders 10 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:36PHI +21% win prob(9:36) 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:34WAS +20% win prob(8:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman at WAS -2. 24-J.Norman to WAS 38 for 40 yards (62-J.Kelce; 33-J.Adams).
2nd · 4:08WAS +12% win prob(4:08) 33-J.Adams up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (53-Z.Brown).
3rd · 9:26PHI +10% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 19-G.Tate to WAS 5 for 32 yards (20-H.Clinton-Dix).
2nd · 7:48PHI +8% win prob(7:48) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at WAS 22 for 39 yards (36-D.Swearinger).
2nd · 6:31PHI +7% win prob(6:31) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 2 for 17 yards (52-R.Anderson).
2nd · 1:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Darren Sproles's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 1:54 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th11:45Jake Elliott·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+313–25
4th4:52Jake Elliott·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+313–28
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryEagles
Commanders0–8Eagles
235Total yards442
5.6Yards per play6.4
36%Success rate51%
20%Third-down rate58%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays9
8First downs27
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.12Eagles: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Commanders: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.34Eagles: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Commanders: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.19Eagles: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 42 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Eagles’s 69 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
PHI's sack or hit rate, 31.0%, is past their previous high of 28.2% in week 5 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 12.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.1 pts in week 12 against +5.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.5 pts in week 12 against −4.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Eagles31.0%
leaned — got home · +12.7 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.0%, 12.7 points above their season mean of 18.4% and 1.6 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman at WAS -2. 24-J.Norman to WAS 38 for 40 yards (62-J.Kelce; 33-J.Adams).
Q3 8:34 · Eagles · 1st & goal at WAS 5 · gained nothing · -7.63 EP · −22.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 90 yards from the WAS 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
673
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0859%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.1269%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.2960%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1877%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.3617%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Commanders0Eagles6
Commanders0Eagles7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 6
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 22
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Eagles 15
2nd quarter53 plays
Commanders3Eagles7
Field goal3 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 43
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Commanders9Eagles7
Commanders10Eagles7
Touchdown2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Commanders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Commanders 10
Commanders10Eagles13
Commanders10Eagles14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 14
Commanders13Eagles14
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 5
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Eagles 49
The period ended10 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Commanders 17
4th quarter45 plays
Commanders13Eagles20
Commanders13Eagles22
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 37
Commanders13Eagles25
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 28
Punt6 plays
Commanders13Eagles28
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Commanders 26
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
