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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 20 at Green Bay Packers 34. Final.
Packers -4 ✓O 51 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
Green Bay Packers 34, Falcons 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 6:08, 3rd and 4, on Bashaud Breeland — 11.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:08 · 3rd and 4
Bashaud Breeland
Packers
(6:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland at ATL 22. 26-B.Breeland for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25°F
Packers closed -4 and covered, winning by 14.
Green Bay Packers 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 6:08, Packers +11.5% win probability on one snap.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Julio JonesFalconsQ1 13:56(13:56) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones pushed ob at GB 28 for 19 yards (23-J.Alexander). Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
9.8pts
Mason CrosbyPackersQ2 7:45(7:45) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
8.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 3 of 12 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Falcons at 4 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Falcons173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(6:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland at ATL 22. 26-B.Breeland for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.5 for PackersExpected points +6.61 for PackersThe model had Falcons 4 points higher than the market did.play 61
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:08ATL +11% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland at ATL 22. 26-B.Breeland for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:56GB +10% win prob(13:56) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones pushed ob at GB 28 for 19 yards (23-J.Alexander). Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
2nd · 7:45GB +9% win prob(7:45) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
1st · 1:34ATL +8% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at GB 26 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by ATL-26-T.Coleman at GB 35. 26-T.Coleman to GB 35 for no gain (23-J.Alexander).
1st · 11:43GB +8% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:30ATL +7% win prob(8:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at ATL 32 for -9 yards (59-D.Campbell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 50-yard field goal with 7:45 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:43Julio Jones·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+77–0
4th13:39Julio Jones·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+714–34
4th0:18Justin Hardy·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · kick no good, wide right+620–34
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPackers
Falcons6–3Packers
344Total yards301
5.1Yards per play5.0
51%Success rate43%
25%Third-down rate54%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays7
22First downs17
2Sacks taken4
2Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Falcons: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Falcons: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.17Packers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Falcons: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.03Packers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 68 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Packers’s 60 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Packers 3.
NoteFalcons outgained Packers 344-301 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 12 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 37.7 points.
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.1 pts in week 13 against −4.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +1.8 pts in week 13 against +10.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Packers11.4%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -4.6 pts, 8.7 points below their season mean of 4.1 pts and 1.9 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland at ATL 22. 26-B.Breeland for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:08 · Falcons · 3rd & 4 at ATL 14 · gained nothing · -6.61 EP · −12.0% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 76 yards from the GB 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
48%
Yards
644
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0679%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2074%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1844%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0040%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.250%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Falcons6Packers0
Falcons7Packers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Packers 16
Falcons7Packers6
Falcons7Packers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Falcons 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
No good13 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Packers 19
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays
Falcons7Packers10
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Falcons 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Falcons7Packers16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 14
Falcons7Packers17
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Packers 45
Falcons7Packers20
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Falcons 27
3rd quarter46 plays
Falcons7Packers26
Falcons7Packers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Falcons 24
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 34
Falcons7Packers33
Falcons7Packers34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Falcons 29
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Falcons 40
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Packers 39
4th quarter53 plays
Falcons13Packers34
Falcons14Packers34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Packers 12
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 29
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Packers 8
Punt14 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Packers 34
Falcons20Packers34
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 46 to the Packers 19
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
