2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Lambeau Field

Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -4 ✓O 51 ✓25°FPackers closed -4 and covered, winning by 14.

Green Bay Packers 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 6:08, ATL +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 6:08ATL — GB ATL ball · 3rd & 4GB 74%

(6:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland at ATL 22. 26-B.Breeland for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 6:08ATL +11% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland at ATL 22. 26-B.Breeland for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:56GB +10% win prob(13:56) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones pushed ob at GB 28 for 19 yards (23-J.Alexander). Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
Q2 · 7:45GB +9% win prob(7:45) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
Q1 · 1:34ATL +8% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at GB 26 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by ATL-26-T.Coleman at GB 35. 26-T.Coleman to GB 35 for no gain (23-J.Alexander).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Packers
Offensive plays	68	60
Total yards	344 (edge)	301
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	65%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Falcons outgained Packers 344–301 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

28/42, 262 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

6.6 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

21/32, 196 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.8 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

17 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Ito SmithRB

11 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

8/11 for 106 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

7/11 for 81 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	9	80	3:24	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 25	11	69	4:25	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 27	13	38	6:30	Turnover on downs
4	GB	GB 43	4	-10	0:49	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 22	4	-2	1:05	Punt
6	GB	GB 25	12	43	6:02	Turnover on downs
7	ATL	ATL 8	4	6	1:44	Defensive touchdown
8	ATL	ATL 29	7	22	3:16	Punt
9	GB	GB 7	10	43	2:45	Turnover on downs
10	GB	GB 28	8	47	2:16	Touchdown
11	ATL	ATL 26	5	-1	2:15	Punt
12	GB	GB 24	9	71	4:38	Touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 24	6	11	2:04	Punt
14	GB	GB 23	4	3	1:00	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 32	12	78	4:13	Touchdown
16	GB	GB 25	5	8	2:55	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 39	11	58	3:55	Fumble
18	GB	GB 7	9	27	4:07	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 46	11	54	2:23	Touchdown
20	GB	ATL 48	2	0	0:14	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	28/42	262	3	1	2	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ito Smith	11	60	5.5	-1.4
Tevin Coleman	10	45	4.5	0.7
Brian Hill	1	5	5.0	0.3
Matt Ryan	1	0	0.0	-4.4
Marvin Hall	1	-3	-3.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	8	11	106	2	26%	6.5
Mohamed Sanu	6	8	54	0	19%	5.8
Austin Hooper	4	6	37	0	14%	-4.6
Justin Hardy	3	4	30	1	10%	3.9
Eric Saubert	2	3	15	0	7%	0.5
Ito Smith	3	4	14	0	10%	1.9
Calvin Ridley	1	4	10	0	10%	-0.6
Marvin Hall	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7
Tevin Coleman	1	1	-4	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Deion Jones	2	4	0.0	2
Brian Poole	4	2	0.0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	3	2	1.0	0
Desmond Trufant	3	1	1.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	3	1	0.0	1
Robert Alford	4	0	0.0	0
Damontae Kazee	2	1	0.0	0
Deadrin Senat	1	2	0.0	0
Jack Crawford	2	1	0.0	0
Jordan Richards	2	0	0.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	21/32	196	2	0	4	2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	17	78	4.6	1	0.3
Aaron Rodgers	3	44	14.7	0	4.0
Jamaal Williams	4	17	4.3	0	0.3
DeShone Kizer	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	7	11	81	1	35%	5.4
Randall Cobb	5	6	43	1	19%	2.3
Aaron Jones	3	3	28	0	10%	1.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	2	19	0	6%	0.9
Jimmy Graham	2	5	13	0	16%	-0.9
Equanimeous St. Brown	2	3	12	0	10%	0.3
Jamaal Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Martinez	9	1	0.0	0
Jaire Alexander	10	0	0.0	1
Josh Jones	4	2	0.0	0
Kentrell Brice	3	1	0.0	0
Tony Brown	2	2	0.0	0
Dean Lowry	2	1	0.0	0
Kyler Fackrell	2	1	0.0	0
Tyler Lancaster	3	0	0.0	0
Clay Matthews	3	0	1.0	0
Josh Jackson	2	0	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -4
Closing total: 51
ATL moneyline: +166
GB moneyline: -185

Packers closed -4 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 51; the game landed 54 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 25°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: ATL 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Joe Philbin