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Baltimore Ravens 24 at Kansas City Chiefs 27. Final.
Chiefs -6.5 no coverO 49 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Ravens 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 4:46, 4th and 15, on Harrison Butker — 57.0 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:46 · 4th and 15
Harrison Butker
Chiefs
(4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
29°F
Chiefs closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:46, Chiefs +57.0% win probability on one snap.
57.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Lamar JacksonChiefsQ4 0:44(:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 30 for -6 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at BAL 23. 50-J.Houston to BAL 23 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
45.6pts
Harrison ButkerRavensQ4 0:03(:03) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
48.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
7 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Ravens193 of 209 plays carry both curves
(4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Swing +57.0 for ChiefsExpected points +0.34 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 195
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:46KC +57% win prob(4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4th · 0:03BAL +48% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4th · 0:44BAL +46% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 30 for -6 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at BAL 23. 50-J.Houston to BAL 23 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
Overtime · 6:25BAL +26% win prob(6:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 25 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 24, recovered by KC-72-E.Fisher at BAL 25. 72-E.Fisher to BAL 25 for no gain (55-T.Suggs).
4th · 1:29KC +25% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 12 for 48 yards [90-Z.Smith].
4th · 4:10KC +19% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 35-yard field goal with 4:46 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:57Damien Williams·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+724–24
Overtime4:46Harrison Butker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+324–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryChiefs
Ravens3–3Chiefs
321Total yards442
4.7Yards per play5.3
47%Success rate46%
42%Third-down rate41%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays5
22First downs27
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Ravens, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Ravens: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Ravens: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.19Chiefs: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Ravens: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.04Chiefs: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 68 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 83 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −19.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
low through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +1.5 pts, is past their previous low of +2.7 pts in week 10 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
83 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +10.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Chiefs10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 1.5 pts, 6.6 points below their season mean of 8.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
53 dressed · 7 never used
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%71 snaps
74James HurstG · Every snap100%71 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%71 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%71 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Full-time97%69 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation72%51 snaps
15Michael CrabtreeWR · Heavy rotation72%51 snaps
13John BrownWR · Heavy rotation70%50 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation55%39 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational44%31 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational35%25 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Rotational32%23 snaps
30Kenneth DixonRB · Rotational32%23 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Rotational31%22 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Rotational27%19 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational25%18 snaps
3Robert Griffin IIIQB · Situational6%4 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Patrick RicardDLZach SielerDTAlex LewisGTim WilliamsOLBJoe FlaccoQBTony JeffersonSSJordan LasleyWR
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 8 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%86 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%86 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%86 snaps
61Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%86 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%86 snaps
17Chris ConleyWR · Every snap99%85 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Every snap99%85 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation76%65 snaps
73Jeff AllenG · Heavy rotation67%58 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation65%56 snaps
26Damien WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation50%43 snaps
32Spencer WareRB · Rotational48%41 snaps
84Demetrius HarrisTE · Rotational33%28 snaps
75Cameron ErvingG · Rotational33%28 snaps
19Marcus KempWR · Situational10%9 snaps
12Gehrig DieterWR · Situational10%9 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational7%6 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Situational2%2 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
James MurrayCKahlil McKenzieGChad HenneQBCharcandrick WestRBEric BerrySSDeon YelderTESammy WatkinsWRKelvin BenjaminWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Harrison Butker+57% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
OT 4:46 · Chiefs · 4th & 15 at BAL 17 · gained nothing · +0.34 EP · +57.0% win probability
191 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 209 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 209 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
209 of 209 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
209
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
763
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0872%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0441%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.1964%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.5429%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1850%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
209 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
209 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 47
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 37
Ravens0Chiefs6
Ravens0Chiefs7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 14
2nd quarter54 plays
Ravens6Chiefs7
Ravens7Chiefs7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 5 to the Chiefs 3
No good10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 33
Ravens10Chiefs7
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Chiefs 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Ravens10Chiefs13
Ravens10Chiefs14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 15
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 35
Ravens10Chiefs17
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Ravens 6
3rd quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 39
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Chiefs 46
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Ravens16Chiefs17
Ravens17Chiefs17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Chiefs 10
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 37
4th quarter55 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 34
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 38
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 27
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Ravens23Chiefs17
Ravens24Chiefs17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Chiefs 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Ravens24Chiefs23
Ravens24Chiefs24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 5
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 36
No good5 plays
Overtime27 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.5 seconds
Ravens24Chiefs27
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 12
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
