2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Arrowhead Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -6.5 no coverO 49 ✓27°FChiefs closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:46, KC +57% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 4:46BAL — KC KC ball · 4th & 15BAL 87%

(4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 4:46KC +57% win prob(4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q4 · 0:03BAL +48% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q4 · 0:44BAL +46% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 30 for -6 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at BAL 23. 50-J.Houston to BAL 23 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
OT · 6:25BAL +26% win prob(6:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 25 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 24, recovered by KC-72-E.Fisher at BAL 25. 72-E.Fisher to BAL 25 for no gain (55-T.Suggs).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Chiefs
Offensive plays	68	83
Total yards	321	442 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	44%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	7/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	22	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

35/53, 377 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.8 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13/24, 147 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Spencer WareRB

15 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

8/14 for 139 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/9 for 77 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	10	28	3:38	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 17	6	13	2:38	Punt
3	KC	KC 25	11	63	5:41	Touchdown
4	BAL	BAL 25	10	75	3:46	Touchdown
5	KC	KC 25	9	27	2:40	Turnover on downs
6	BAL	BAL 41	10	34	4:37	Turnover on downs
7	KC	KC 25	11	60	4:23	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 18	6	17	1:01	Punt
9	KC	KC 19	9	70	1:36	Turnover on downs
10	BAL	BAL 25	7	46	3:21	Turnover on downs
11	KC	KC 39	3	7	1:14	Interception
12	BAL	BAL 27	15	68	7:15	Touchdown
13	KC	KC 25	14	48	6:49	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 9	8	30	4:31	Punt
15	KC	KC 22	4	-3	1:52	Punt
16	BAL	KC 14	4	14	0:54	Touchdown
17	KC	KC 25	13	85	3:11	Touchdown
18	BAL	BAL 25	4	-2	0:15	Fumble
19	KC	BAL 23	3	-2	0:38	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 25	12	59	5:18	Turnover on downs
21	BAL	BAL 25	10	26	3:09	Turnover on downs

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 85 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	13/24	147	2	0	2	6.7
Robert Griffin	0/2	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	14	67	4.8	0	-0.3
Gus Edwards	16	67	4.2	0	-3.6
Kenneth Dixon	8	59	7.4	1	4.3
Ty Montgomery	2	1	0.5	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Willie Snead	5	7	61	0	27%	7.5
Michael Crabtree	3	4	31	0	15%	1.6
John Brown	2	6	23	1	23%	2.2
Kenneth Dixon	1	1	21	0	4%	1.7
Maxx Williams	1	1	10	1	4%	4.0
Ty Montgomery	1	3	1	0	12%	-1.8
Chris Moore	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.4
Mark Andrews	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jimmy Smith	10	1	0.0	1
C.J. Mosley	4	2	0.0	0
Michael Pierce	5	1	0.0	0
Eric Weddle	5	1	0.0	1
Marlon Humphrey	3	2	0.0	0
Brandon Carr	4	1	0.0	0
Brandon Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Brent Urban	3	1	0.0	0
Terrell Suggs	3	1	0.5	1
Patrick Onwuasor	1	3	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	35/53	377	2	1	3	11.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Spencer Ware	15	75	5.0	0	1.2
Damien Williams	8	14	1.8	1	-2.2
Tyreek Hill	1	6	6.0	0	0.7
Anthony Sherman	1	2	2.0	0	1.7
Patrick Mahomes	2	-3	-1.5	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	8	14	139	0	29%	6.3
Travis Kelce	7	9	77	1	19%	8.6
Spencer Ware	5	5	54	0	10%	1.8
Demarcus Robinson	5	7	42	0	15%	-1.0
Demetrius Harris	3	3	28	0	6%	2.6
Damien Williams	4	5	16	1	10%	3.3
Chris Conley	2	3	13	0	6%	-0.1
Darrel Williams	1	1	8	0	2%	-0.1
Anthony Sherman	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Hitchens	6	2	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	5	2	0.0	4
Reggie Ragland	5	1	0.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	3	2	0.0	0
Justin Houston	4	1	1.0	0
Dee Ford	4	1	0.0	0
Allen Bailey	3	1	0.0	0
Ron Parker	4	0	0.0	0
Chris Jones	3	0	1.0	0
Orlando Scandrick	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -6.5
Closing total: 49
BAL moneyline: +239
KC moneyline: -269

Chiefs closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49; the game landed 51 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 27°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: BAL 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Andy Reid