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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 20 at Cleveland Browns 26. Final.
Panthers -1 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
Cleveland Browns 26, Panthers 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:13, 3rd and 2, on Jarvis Landry — 19.3 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:13 · 3rd and 2
Jarvis Landry
Browns
(14:13) 80-J.Landry right guard to CAR 4 for 51 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
U 48 ✓
28°F
Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 14:13, Browns +19.3% win probability on one snap.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jarvis LandryPanthersQ3 14:58(14:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry to CLE 34 for -1 yards (59-L.Kuechly). FUMBLES (59-L.Kuechly), RECOVERED by CAR-58-T.Davis at CLE 32.
17.0pts
Cam NewtonBrownsQ4 2:39(2:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Wright.
18.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns won this one — 4 of 9 on third down, against Panthers at 5 of 14 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Panthers at +0.11 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Browns at 6 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Panthers159 of 167 plays carry both curves
(14:13) 80-J.Landry right guard to CAR 4 for 51 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
Swing +19.3 for BrownsExpected points +4.00 for BrownsThe model had Browns 8 points higher than the market did.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:13CLE +19% win prob(14:13) 80-J.Landry right guard to CAR 4 for 51 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
4th · 2:39CAR +19% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Wright.
3rd · 14:58CAR +17% win prob(14:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry to CLE 34 for -1 yards (59-L.Kuechly). FUMBLES (59-L.Kuechly), RECOVERED by CAR-58-T.Davis at CLE 32.
2nd · 8:35CLE +16% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-J.Landry for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:39CAR +13% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-R.Higgins to CLE 16 for 4 yards (59-L.Kuechly). FUMBLES (59-L.Kuechly), RECOVERED by CAR-58-T.Davis at CLE 17.
4th · 4:37CLE +12% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 13-J.Wright to CLE 9 for 24 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 13:10 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
2nd4:07Chandler Catanzaro·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+317–14
2nd1:03Greg Joseph·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+317–17
3rd7:15Chandler Catanzaro·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+320–17
4th13:10Nick Chubb·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left uprightLead never changed again+620–23
4th8:51Greg Joseph·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+320–26
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryBrowns
Panthers3–3Browns
393Total yards350
5.7Yards per play8.1
39%Success rate40%
36%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays6
20First downs11
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Panthers, in first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Panthers: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.04Browns: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Panthers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.09Browns: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Panthers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.21Browns: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 69 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Browns’s 43 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 5, Browns 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 14.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.8 points.
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 78.0% in week 13 against 55.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Browns8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 35.4 points above their season mean of 39.6% and 1.8 times their own 19.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
53 dressed · 7 never used
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%74 snaps
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Chris ClarkOT · Every snap100%74 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%74 snaps
67Ryan KalilC · Every snap100%74 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Every snap100%74 snaps
1Cam NewtonQB · Every snap99%73 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Full-time93%69 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Full-time91%67 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Full-time82%61 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
17Devin FunchessWR · Rotational39%29 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational28%21 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational7%5 snaps
71Marshall NewhouseT · Situational4%3 snaps
11Torrey SmithWR · Situational3%2 snaps
34Cameron Artis-PayneRB · Situational1%1 snap
6Taylor HeinickeQB · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Lorenzo DossCBVernon ButlerDTGraham GanoKMarquis HaynesLBAndre SmithLBTravaris CadetRBMose FrazierWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-J.Landry for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:35 · Browns · 3rd & 17 at CLE 49 · gained 51 · +6.02 EP · +20.8% win probability
157 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 75 yards from the CLE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
38%
Yards
741
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.0668%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.5560%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.9930%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.8171%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Panthers6Browns0
Panthers7Browns0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Browns 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Panthers7Browns6
Panthers7Browns7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Panthers 3
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 49
Offense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Browns 17
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Browns 8
2nd quarter44 plays
Panthers13Browns7
Panthers14Browns7
Touchdown4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Panthers14Browns13
Panthers14Browns14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Panthers 44
Panthers17Browns14
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Browns 12
Panthers17Browns17
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Panthers 31
The period ended9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Browns 48
3rd quarter44 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Panthers20Browns17
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Browns 3
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 28
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 37
4th quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Panthers20Browns23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Panthers 4
No good1 play
Punt4 plays
Panthers20Browns26
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Panthers 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Browns 3
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 3 to the Browns 24
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted1 play
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
