2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CAR -1 upsetU 48 ✓28°FPanthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 14:13, CLE +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:13CAR — CLE CLE ball · 3rd & 2CAR 64%

(14:13) 80-J.Landry right guard to CAR 4 for 51 yards (59-L.Kuechly).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:13CLE +19% win prob(14:13) 80-J.Landry right guard to CAR 4 for 51 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
Q4 · 2:39CAR +19% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Wright.
Q3 · 14:58CAR +17% win prob(14:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry to CLE 34 for -1 yards (59-L.Kuechly). FUMBLES (59-L.Kuechly), RECOVERED by CAR-58-T.Davis at CLE 32.
Q2 · 8:35CLE +16% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-J.Landry for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Browns
Offensive plays	69	43
Total yards	393 (edge)	350
Yards per play	5.7	8.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.00	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	39%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

26/42, 265 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

18/22, 238 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · +13.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

13 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

16 att, 63 yds, 2 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Curtis SamuelWR

4/8 for 80 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Ian ThomasTE

9/11 for 77 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 35	12	70	5:43	Touchdown
2	CLE	CLE 25	5	72	1:36	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 25	10	34	5:01	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 14	2	7	1:09	Fumble
5	CAR	CLE 17	6	17	2:18	Touchdown
6	CLE	CLE 25	10	85	5:46	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 18	9	75	4:24	Turnover on downs
8	CLE	CLE 25	9	44	3:04	Turnover on downs
9	CAR	CAR 25	7	60	0:59	Fumble
10	CLE	CLE 35	2	-3	0:08	Fumble
11	CAR	CLE 32	4	-3	1:37	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 11	4	-6	1:38	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 46	10	63	4:26	Turnover on downs
14	CLE	CLE 25	5	20	2:55	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 25	6	5	2:40	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 25	7	70	3:31	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 25	5	0	0:24	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 37	6	40	3:55	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 25	13	72	6:11	Turnover on downs
20	CLE	CLE 3	6	21	1:31	Punt
21	CAR	CAR 35	1	0	0:07	Interception
22	CLE	CAR 48	2	0	0:57	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	26/42	265	0	1	1	-1.6
Taylor Heinicke	1/1	33	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	16	63	3.9	2	1.4
Cam Newton	5	23	4.6	0	1.5
Jarius Wright	1	5	5.0	0	0.2
Cameron Artis-Payne	1	5	5.0	0	0.5
D.J. Moore	1	0	0.0	0	-1.0
Alex Armah	1	0	0.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	4	8	80	19%	-1.8
Ian Thomas	9	11	77	26%	3.6
D.J. Moore	5	8	67	19%	2.1
Christian McCaffrey	6	7	38	17%	1.8
Jarius Wright	3	5	36	12%	-2.3
Devin Funchess	0	3	0	7%	-4.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Luke Kuechly	6	5	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	8	2	0.0	1
Thomas Davis	3	3	0.0	0
Eric Reid	2	2	0.0	0
James Bradberry	2	1	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	2	0	0.0	0
Captain Munnerlyn	2	0	1.0	0
Dontari Poe	1	0	0.0	0
Kawann Short	1	0	0.0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	18/22	238	1	0	1	7.8
Jarvis Landry	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	13	66	5.1	1	0.3
Jarvis Landry	2	54	27.0	1	5.1
Baker Mayfield	4	2	0.5	0	-2.1
Duke Johnson	2	-6	-3.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Breshad Perriman	2	2	81	0	9%	4.9
Jarvis Landry	3	4	57	1	17%	0.3
David Njoku	3	4	35	0	17%	0.1
Dontrell Hilliard	2	2	20	0	9%	-0.0
Rashard Higgins	2	3	19	0	13%	-3.5
Nick Chubb	4	6	17	0	26%	-1.7
Orson Charles	1	1	9	0	4%	0.8
Antonio Callaway	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Damarious Randall	8	1	0.0	1	1
Joe Schobert	6	1	0.0	0	0
Jamie Collins	6	1	0.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	4	1	0.0	0	0
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	4	1	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	4	1	1.0	0	0
T.J. Carrie	3	1	0.0	0	2
Tanner Vallejo	2	1	0.0	0	0
Genard Avery	1	2	0.0	0	1
Derrick Kindred	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -1
Closing total: 48
CAR moneyline: -117
CLE moneyline: +106

Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 46 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 28°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: CAR 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Gregg Williams