2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · StubHub Center

Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -17 no coverU 48.5 ✓Chargers closed -17, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Chargers 26–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, LAC +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:25CIN — LAC CIN ball · 2nd & 3LAC 91%

(:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 15-J.Ross for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:25LAC +8% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 15-J.Ross for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:50CIN +7% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-J.Driskel is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 · 1:54LAC +6% win prob(1:54) 66-T.Hopkins and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:00CIN +6% win prob(:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Chargers
Offensive plays	64	56
Total yards	295 (edge)	288
Yards per play	4.6	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	42%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.00 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

19/29, 220 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jeff DriskelQB

18/27, 170 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

26 att, 111 yds, 1 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

15 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

5/8 for 78 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

3/6 for 52 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	8	75	3:21	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 20	10	51	5:16	Turnover on downs
3	LAC	LAC 25	15	85	6:32	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 25	7	16	2:43	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 7	4	-2	1:46	Punt
6	CIN	LAC 46	10	50	5:21	Turnover on downs
7	LAC	LAC 17	5	0	1:24	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 46	4	-11	1:36	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 7	4	-1	0:26	Punt
10	CIN	LAC 35	6	35	1:15	Touchdown
11	LAC	LAC 32	4	22	0:20	End of half
12	CIN	CIN 26	5	14	2:16	Turnover on downs
13	LAC	CIN 35	11	22	5:06	Turnover on downs
14	CIN	CIN 28	9	38	3:39	Punt
15	LAC	LAC 4	7	19	2:59	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 39	8	33	3:48	Turnover on downs
17	LAC	LAC 25	9	61	4:27	Turnover on downs
18	CIN	CIN 21	13	69	5:55	Touchdown
19	LAC	CIN 34	5	7	1:01	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 23	4	0	0:49	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jeff Driskel	18/27	170	1	0	3	3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	26	111	4.3	1	-3.7
Alex Erickson	1	14	14.0	0	1.3
Jeff Driskel	2	12	6.0	0	1.3
Giovani Bernard	3	7	2.3	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	3	6	52	0	24%	2.3
C.J. Uzomah	3	3	37	0	12%	2.3
Cody Core	3	4	30	0	16%	2.2
Joe Mixon	5	6	27	0	24%	0.7
Giovani Bernard	2	2	13	0	8%	0.6
John Ross	2	4	11	1	16%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jessie Bates	4	3	0.0	0
Shawn Williams	3	2	0.0	0
KeiVarae Russell	3	1	0.0	0
Michael Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Carlos Dunlap	4	0	1.0	2
William Jackson	3	0	0.0	2
Jordan Evans	3	0	0.0	0
Christian Ringo	1	2	0.5	0
Cody Core	2	0	0.0	0
Clayton Fejedelem	1	1	0.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	19/29	220	1	0	2	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	15	66	4.4	1	2.2
Justin Jackson	7	12	1.7	0	-2.5
Philip Rivers	2	7	3.5	0	0.9
Keenan Allen	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	5	8	78	1	28%	1.4
Mike Williams	3	6	45	0	21%	1.5
Austin Ekeler	2	5	28	0	17%	1.2
Justin Jackson	2	2	23	0	7%	1.1
Antonio Gates	2	2	19	0	7%	0.7
Tyrell Williams	3	4	14	0	14%	0.7
Travis Benjamin	1	1	11	0	3%	0.1
Derek Watt	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jahleel Addae	6	2	0.0	0
Derwin James	6	1	0.0	0
Jatavis Brown	3	3	0.0	1
Joey Bosa	6	0	1.0	0
Melvin Ingram	4	1	0.0	0
Adrian Phillips	5	0	0.0	1
Jeff Richards	2	1	0.0	0
Desmond King	2	1	0.0	0
Michael Davis	2	1	0.0	0
Kyle Emanuel	1	2	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -17
Closing total: 48.5
CIN moneyline: +847
LAC moneyline: -1292

Chargers closed -17, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 47 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: StubHub Center
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: CIN 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Marvin Lewis vs Anthony Lynn