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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 21 at Los Angeles Chargers 26. Final.
Chargers -17 no coverU 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers 26, Bengals 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:25, 2nd and 3, on John Ross — 7.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:25 · 2nd and 3
John Ross
Bengals
(:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 15-J.Ross for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chargers closed -17, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Chargers 26–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, Bengals +7.6% win probability on one snap.
7.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe MixonBengalsQ4 1:54(1:54) 66-T.Hopkins and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetChargersQ4 1:50(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-J.Driskel is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.
7.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Chargers at 4 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.11 expected points per carry.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Bengals159 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 15-J.Ross for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −7.6 for ChargersExpected points −2.31 for ChargersThe model had Bengals 21 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:25LAC +8% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 15-J.Ross for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:54LAC +6% win prob(1:54) 66-T.Hopkins and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:00CIN +6% win prob(:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.
4th · 0:54CIN +5% win prob(:54) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.
3rd · 12:51CIN +5% win prob(12:51) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 35 for no gain (43-M.Davis, 37-J.Addae).
4th · 0:39
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Keenan Allen's 14-yard touchdown catch with 11:46 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:46Keenan Allen·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+70–7
1st6:28Randy Bullock·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–7
2nd5:05Randy Bullock·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+36–14
2nd0:25John Ross·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel · two-point no good+612–14
2nd0:00Michael Badgley·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+312–17
3rd7:42Michael Badgley·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+312–20
4th12:17Randy Bullock·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+315–20
4th7:50Michael Badgley·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+315–23
4th1:54Joe Mixon·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+621–23
4th0:54Michael Badgley·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+321–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryChargers
Bengals3–3Chargers
295Total yards288
4.6Yards per play5.1
42%Success rate50%
38%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays4
19First downs17
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Bengals, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Bengals: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.07Chargers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Bengals: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.11Chargers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Bengals: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.00Chargers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Chargers’s 56 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, −15.0 pts, is past their previous low of −7.1 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
CIN's early-down pass rate, 41.7%, is past their previous low of 52.2% in week 5 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Chargers12.1%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.0 pts, 14.7 points below their season mean of -0.3 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
53 dressed · 8 never used
65Clint BolingG · Every snap100%67 snaps
53Billy PriceC · Every snap100%67 snaps
62Alex RedmondG · Every snap100%67 snaps
6Jeff DriskelQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Full-time96%64 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time96%64 snaps
15John RossWR · Full-time90%60 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Full-time87%58 snaps
28Joe MixonHB · Heavy rotation70%47 snaps
63Christian WestermanG · Heavy rotation63%42 snaps
16Cody CoreWR · Rotational49%33 snaps
66Trey HopkinsG · Rotational40%27 snaps
25Giovani BernardHB · Rotational37%25 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Rotational31%21 snaps
89Matt LengelTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
88Jordan FranksHB · Situational7%5 snaps
71Andre SmithT · Situational4%3 snaps
94Sam HubbardDE · Situational3%2 snaps
19Auden TateWR · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Dre KirkpatrickCBTony McRaeCBVontaze BurfictOLBKasim EdebaliOLBCordy GlennOTCedric OgbuehiOTTom SavageQBJosh MaloneWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Driskel is−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-J.Driskel is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 1:50 · Bengals · — at LAC 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −11.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 79 yards from the CIN 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
44%
Yards
583
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1347%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1563%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.3730%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0167%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3283%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Bengals0Chargers6
Bengals0Chargers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bengals 14
Bengals3Chargers7
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Chargers 29
The period ended14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bengals 25
2nd quarter56 plays
Bengals3Chargers13
Bengals3Chargers14
Touchdown3 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 46
Punt4 plays
Bengals6Chargers14
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 46 to the Chargers 1
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Chargers 16
Bengals12Chargers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 6
Bengals12Chargers17
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Bengals 41
3rd quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 35
Bengals12Chargers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 13
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Chargers 34
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chargers 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Bengals 43
4th quarter44 plays
Bengals15Chargers20
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 28
Bengals15Chargers23
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bengals 14
Bengals21Chargers23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Chargers 1
Bengals21Chargers26
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Bengals 27
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
