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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:16 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Broncos180 of 191 plays carry both curves
(10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC
Swing +18.3 for 49ersExpected points +6.70 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 12 points higher than the market did.play 54
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:00SF +18% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC
4th · 3:57SF +10% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC
1st · 0:28SF +9% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to DEN 12 for 52 yards (31-J.Simmons). Caught at SF 43. 45-YAC
4th · 3:39SF +9% win prob(3:39) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at DEN 46 for 31 yards (35-D.Thomas) [58-V.Miller]. Caught at SF 36. 18-YAC
2nd · 8:58SF +7% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 23-D.Booker (38-A.Exum) [94-S.Thomas]. PENALTY on SF-94-S.Thomas, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 25 - No Play.
2nd · 13:37DEN +6% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at DEN 12 for -8 yards (55-B.Chubb).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robbie Gould's 40-yard field goal with 10:28 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:28Robbie Gould·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.HolbaLead never changed again+30–3
2nd13:04Robbie Gould·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Holba+30–6
2nd10:00George Kittle·85-yd TD catch85-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+70–13
2nd0:12Dante Pettis·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+70–20
4th3:57DaeSean Hamilton·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+714–20
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by category49ers
Broncos3–649ers
275Total yards395
3.9Yards per play6.4
31%Success rate40%
13%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays5
17First downs18
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
49ers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Broncos: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.0549ers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Broncos: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.2149ers: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.1649ers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 70 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against 49ers’s 62 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, 49ers 3.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 11 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 14.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 13.
8 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.0 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.9% in week 13 against 62.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
49ers21.3%
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 49.1 points above their season mean of 25.9% and 2.2 times their own 22.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Mullens pass+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC
Q2 10:00 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 15 · gained 85 · +6.70 EP · +17.2% win probability
178 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 85 yards from the SF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
35%
Yards
663
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.1663%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24+0.2154%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.3890%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.8450%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.310%
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.0633%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Broncos049ers3
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Broncos 22
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 21
Punt12 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the Broncos 40
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 39
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 36
2nd quarter61 plays
Broncos049ers6
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 4
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the 49ers 45
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Broncos049ers12
Broncos049ers13
Touchdown2 plays
Drive ended9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the 49ers 43
Punt1 play
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 49
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 33
Broncos049ers19
Broncos049ers20
Touchdown16 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Broncos 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 27
Punt5 plays
Broncos649ers20
Broncos749ers20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 44 to the 49ers 3
Punt11 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the Broncos 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Broncos 27
4th quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 44
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Broncos 45
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the 49ers 21
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 29
Broncos1349ers20
Broncos1449ers20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the 49ers 1
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Broncos 33
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
