2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Levi's Stadium

Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ersWinner

DEN -3 upsetU 45.5 ✓Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 20–14. Biggest swing: Q2 10:00, SF +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:00DEN — SF SF ball · 1st & 10SF 56%

(10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:00SF +18% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC
Q4 · 3:57SF +10% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC
Q1 · 0:28SF +9% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to DEN 12 for 52 yards (31-J.Simmons). Caught at SF 43. 45-YAC
Q4 · 3:39SF +9% win prob(3:39) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at DEN 46 for 31 yards (35-D.Thomas) [58-V.Miller]. Caught at SF 36. 18-YAC

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	49ers
Offensive plays	70	62
Total yards	275	395 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	31%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.21 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	2/15	4/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

20/33, 332 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.5 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

24/42, 186 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

23 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Royce FreemanRB

6 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

7/9 for 210 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 14.2 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

7/10 for 85 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 22	10	61	4:37	Turnover on downs
2	DEN	DEN 20	5	1	1:06	Punt
3	SF	SF 14	10	36	4:27	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 20	6	19	2:40	Punt
5	SF	SF 19	7	64	4:09	Turnover on downs
6	DEN	DEN 16	8	19	3:01	Punt
7	SF	SF 15	2	85	0:13	Touchdown
8	DEN	DEN 25	10	20	4:25	Punt
9	SF	SF 20	8	14	3:34	Fumble
10	SF	DEN 21	5	8	0:41	Punt
11	SF	SF 28	8	50	0:59	Touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 23	2	0	0:08	End of half
13	DEN	DEN 17	6	4	2:04	Punt
14	SF	SF 44	4	-10	1:57	Punt
15	DEN	DEN 44	12	56	4:54	Touchdown
16	SF	SF 10	10	33	3:55	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 8	9	38	4:29	Turnover on downs
18	SF	DEN 46	3	1	1:20	Interception
19	DEN	DEN 41	6	38	2:44	Turnover on downs
20	SF	SF 21	4	8	1:42	Punt
21	DEN	DEN 31	15	52	3:02	Touchdown
22	SF	SF 20	11	52	3:48	Turnover on downs
23	DEN	DEN 39	1	21	0:05	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	24/42	186	1	0	2	-6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Royce Freeman	6	36	6.0	0	-0.7
Phillip Lindsay	14	30	2.1	1	-3.7
Case Keenum	4	24	6.0	0	1.6
Tim Patrick	1	11	11.0	0	1.3
Andy Janovich	1	3	3.0	0	1.8
Courtland Sutton	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	7	10	85	0	26%	6.0
DaeSean Hamilton	7	9	47	1	24%	4.0
Phillip Lindsay	4	7	21	0	18%	-5.2
Courtland Sutton	2	6	14	0	16%	-2.3
Devontae Booker	2	2	11	0	5%	-0.0
Brian Parker	1	2	5	0	5%	-0.3
Matt LaCosse	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.9
Royce Freeman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Todd Davis	4	3	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	5	1	0.0	0	0
Derek Wolfe	4	1	0.0	0	0
Shelby Harris	3	1	0.0	0	2
Darian Stewart	4	0	0.0	1	1
Bradley Chubb	2	2	2.0	0	0
Bradley Roby	3	0	0.0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	2	1	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	3	0	1.0	0	0
Josey Jewell	1	2	0.0	0	1

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	20/33	332	2	1	3	7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	23	90	3.9	-1.7
Alfred Morris	2	4	2.0	-1.1
Nick Mullens	5	-10	-2.0	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	7	9	210	1	28%	14.2
Dante Pettis	3	7	49	1	22%	2.8
Kendrick Bourne	2	4	22	0	13%	-0.8
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	21	0	9%	0.7
Marquise Goodwin	2	2	20	0	6%	1.1
Jeffery Wilson	1	2	6	0	6%	-0.2
Trent Taylor	1	2	6	0	6%	-2.7
Alfred Morris	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2
Garrett Celek	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Joe Staley	1	1	-5	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
D.J. Reed	8	2	1.0	0
Marcell Harris	4	2	0.0	0
Richard Sherman	5	0	0.0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	1	3	0.0	0
Elijah Lee	3	1	0.0	1
Fred Warner	3	1	0.0	0
Ronald Blair	3	0	1.0	0
D.J. Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	2	1	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -3
Closing total: 45.5
DEN moneyline: -164
SF moneyline: +148

Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 34 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: DEN 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Vance Joseph vs Kyle Shanahan