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2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Levi's Stadium
14
20
San Francisco 49ers 20–14. Biggest swing: Q2 10:00, SF +18% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 70 | 62 |
| Total yards | 275 | 395 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 3.9 | 6.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.10 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Success rate | 31% | 40% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 67% | 58% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.11 | 0.21 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.09 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Third downs | 2/15 | 4/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 5 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 18 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
20/33, 332 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
7.5 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
24/42, 186 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.7 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | SF 22 | 10 | 61 | 4:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | DEN | DEN 20 | 5 | 1 | 1:06 | Punt | |
| 3 | SF | SF 14 | 10 | 36 | 4:27 | Punt | |
| 4 | DEN | DEN 20 | 6 | 19 | 2:40 | Punt | |
| 5 | SF | SF 19 | 7 | 64 | 4:09 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | DEN | DEN 16 | 8 | 19 | 3:01 | Punt | |
| 7 | SF | SF 15 | 2 | 85 | 0:13 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | DEN | DEN 25 | 10 | 20 | 4:25 | Punt | |
| 9 | SF | SF 20 | 8 | 14 | 3:34 | Fumble | |
| 10 | SF | DEN 21 | 5 | 8 | 0:41 | Punt | |
| 11 | SF | SF 28 | 8 | 50 | 0:59 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 23 | 2 | 0 | 0:08 | End of half | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 17 | 6 | 4 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 14 | SF | SF 44 | 4 | -10 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 44 | 12 | 56 | 4:54 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | SF | SF 10 | 10 | 33 | 3:55 | Punt | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 8 | 9 | 38 | 4:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | SF | DEN 46 | 3 | 1 | 1:20 | Interception | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 41 | 6 | 38 | 2:44 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | SF | SF 21 | 4 | 8 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 21 | DEN | DEN 31 | 15 | 52 | 3:02 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | SF | SF 20 | 11 | 52 | 3:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | DEN | DEN 39 | 1 | 21 | 0:05 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 24/42 | 186 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 1 | -3.7 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Andy Janovich | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 1.8 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 7 | 10 | 85 | 0 | 26% | 6.0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 7 | 9 | 47 | 1 | 24% | 4.0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Davis | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Wolfe | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 20/33 | 332 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Wilson | 23 | 90 | 3.9 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 34 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| -5.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 16% | -2.3 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | -0.0 |
| Brian Parker | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | -0.3 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.9 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Darian Stewart | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Roby | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| -1.7 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Nick Mullens | 5 | -10 | -2.0 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 7 | 9 | 210 | 1 | 28% | 14.2 |
| Dante Pettis | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 22% | 2.8 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | -0.8 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 9% | 0.7 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | 1.1 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | -0.2 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | -2.7 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Joe Staley | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 3% | -1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Reed | 8 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcell Harris | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Sherman | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Lee | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fred Warner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Blair | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
