2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · State Farm Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

DET -2.5 ✓U 40 ✓DomeLions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Detroit Lions 17–3. Biggest swing: Q3 3:16, DET +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:16DET — ARI ARI ball · 3rd & 14DET 67%

(3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay [95-R.Okwara] at DET 33. 23-D.Slay for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:16DET +21% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay [95-R.Okwara] at DET 33. 23-D.Slay for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:15DET +14% win prob(12:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 29-L.Blount to ARI 32 for 2 yards (36-B.Baker). FUMBLES (36-B.Baker), RECOVERED by ARI-36-B.Baker at ARI 32. 36-B.Baker to ARI 30 for -2 yards (71-R.Wagner).
Q2 · 6:38ARI +10% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 16-T.Sherfield to DET 45 for 19 yards (38-M.Ford). PENALTY on DET-55-E.Lee, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DET 45.
Q2 · 2:00ARI +8% win prob(2:00) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DET 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 28-Q.Diggs to DET 17 for 4 yards (47-E.Turner; 59-J.Walker).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Cardinals
Offensive plays	55	65
Total yards	218	279 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	4.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21 (edge)	-0.33
Success rate	33% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	45%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	-0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	4/12	6/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	13	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Cardinals outgained Lions 279–218 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

26/41, 240 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-13.0 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

15/23, 101 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.6 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Zach ZennerRB

12 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

15 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trent SherfieldWR

5/7 for 77 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Larry FitzgeraldWR

5/9 for 55 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	8	43	2:57	Fumble
2	ARI	ARI 30	4	-6	1:31	Punt
3	DET	DET 35	4	7	2:03	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 15	5	12	2:05	Punt
5	DET	DET 22	4	3	2:03	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 27	6	23	1:50	Punt
7	DET	DET 16	13	65	7:56	Turnover on downs
8	ARI	ARI 25	11	27	4:18	Turnover on downs
9	DET	DET 44	4	-5	1:17	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 24	6	6	2:12	Punt
11	DET	DET 17	6	31	1:18	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 19	2	11	0:30	End of half
13	ARI	ARI 25	8	19	3:28	Fumble
14	DET	DET 10	7	26	3:47	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 14	8	42	4:42	Defensive touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 25	5	19	2:11	Punt
17	DET	DET 11	6	-4	2:21	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 34	9	64	5:17	Turnover on downs
19	DET	DET 25	9	42	4:09	Touchdown
20	ARI	ARI 25	8	21	2:12	Turnover on downs
21	DET	DET 49	5	10	0:25	Punt
22	ARI	ARI 15	5	41	1:28	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 65 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	15/23	101	0	0	1	-5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zach Zenner	12	54	4.5	1	1.2
LeGarrette Blount	12	33	2.8	0	-3.7
Theo Riddick	6	28	4.7	0	0.7
Matthew Stafford	1	7	7.0	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Theo Riddick	4	4	30	18%	0.8
Levine Toilolo	2	2	26	9%	3.1
LeGarrette Blount	2	3	18	14%	-5.2
Bruce Ellington	4	4	17	18%	-0.8
Kenny Golladay	2	4	5	18%	-2.7
Andy Jones	1	2	5	9%	-1.0
T.J. Jones	0	1	0	5%	-0.3
Michael Roberts	0	2	0	9%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
A'Shawn Robinson	4	4	1.0	0	0
Jarrad Davis	7	1	1.0	0	1
Glover Quin	5	1	0.0	0	0
DeShawn Shead	4	1	0.0	0	0
Damon Harrison	2	2	0.0	0	0
Nevin Lawson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	4	0	0.0	0	0
Darius Slay	2	1	0.0	1	3
Eli Harold	2	1	0.0	0	0
Romeo Okwara	2	1	1.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	26/41	240	0	1	3	-13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	15	49	3.3	-4.1
Chase Edmonds	3	14	4.7	-1.3
Josh Rosen	2	3	1.5	-1.8
J.J. Nelson	1	-5	-5.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Trent Sherfield	5	7	77	17%	-1.0
Larry Fitzgerald	5	9	55	22%	-2.3
J.J. Nelson	3	7	43	17%	2.2
Ricky Seals-Jones	3	5	31	12%	-0.6
Jalen Tolliver	2	2	22	5%	1.3
David Johnson	8	10	12	24%	-6.3
Jermaine Gresham	0	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Haason Reddick	10	1	0.0	0
Antoine Bethea	7	1	0.0	0
David Amerson	6	1	0.0	0
Gerald Hodges	3	2	0.0	0
Benson Mayowa	4	0	0.0	1
Budda Baker	4	0	0.0	0
Tre Boston	2	1	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	2	0	0.0	0
Cameron Malveaux	1	0	1.0	0
Thurston Armbrister	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -2.5
Closing total: 40
DET moneyline: -139
ARI moneyline: +126

Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 40; the game landed 20 — under by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DET 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Steve Wilks