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2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · State Farm Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit17
BY 14final margin
CardinalsArizona3
Detroit Lions 17 at Arizona Cardinals 3. Final.
Lions -2.5 ✓U 40 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
Detroit Lions 17, Cardinals 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 3:16, 3rd and 14, on Darius Slay — 21.5 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:16 · 3rd and 14
Darius Slay
Lions
(3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay [95-R.Okwara] at DET 33. 23-D.Slay for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Detroit Lions 17–3. Biggest swing: Q3 3:16, Lions +21.5% win probability on one snap.
21.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
LeGarrette BlountCardinalsQ1 12:15(12:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 29-L.Blount to ARI 32 for 2 yards (36-B.Baker). FUMBLES (36-B.Baker), RECOVERED by ARI-36-B.Baker at ARI 32. 36-B.Baker to ARI 30 for -2 yards (71-R.Wagner).
14.1pts
Trent SherfieldCardinalsQ2 6:38(6:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 16-T.Sherfield to DET 45 for 19 yards (38-M.Ford). PENALTY on DET-55-E.Lee, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DET 45.
9.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Lions won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — -0.21 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.33 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Lions157 of 166 plays carry both curves
(3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay [95-R.Okwara] at DET 33. 23-D.Slay for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −21.5 for CardinalsExpected points −8.40 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 11 points higher than the market did.play 105
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:16DET +21% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay [95-R.Okwara] at DET 33. 23-D.Slay for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:15DET +14% win prob(12:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 29-L.Blount to ARI 32 for 2 yards (36-B.Baker). FUMBLES (36-B.Baker), RECOVERED by ARI-36-B.Baker at ARI 32. 36-B.Baker to ARI 30 for -2 yards (71-R.Wagner).
2nd · 6:38ARI +10% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 16-T.Sherfield to DET 45 for 19 yards (38-M.Ford). PENALTY on DET-55-E.Lee, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DET 45.
2nd · 2:00ARI +8% win prob(2:00) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DET 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 28-Q.Diggs to DET 17 for 4 yards (47-E.Turner; 59-J.Walker).
2nd · 2:31DET +7% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 30 for -7 yards (40-J.Davis).
2nd · 8:51ARI +7% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 14-J.Nelson to ARI 36 for 10 yards (23-D.Slay) [91-A.Robinson]. DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 47-yard field goal with 9:40 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd9:40Matt Prater·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.MuhlbachLead never changed again+33–0
Lions ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Lions: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.33Cardinals: −0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.38Lions: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.32Cardinals: −0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Lions: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.35Cardinals: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 55 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 65 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Lions 1, Cardinals 1.
NoteCardinals outgained Lions 279-218 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, −12.8 pts, is past their previous low of −9.6 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
DET's early-down pass rate, 37.2%, is past their previous low of 40.4% in week 7 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 11 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cardinals8.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.8 pts, 10.6 points below their season mean of -2.2 pts and 2.1 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Rosen pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay [95-R.Okwara] at DET 33. 23-D.Slay for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:16 · Cardinals · 3rd & 14 at DET 44 · gained nothing · -8.40 EP · −27.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
34%
Yards
497
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.3578%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0658%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.4640%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.180%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1050%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.480%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cardinals 34
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 31
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 42
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Cardinals 27
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 31
2nd quarter44 plays
Lions3Cardinals0
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Cardinals 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
No good12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Lions 30
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 37
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 17 to the Lions 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 20
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 44
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Lions9Cardinals0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Lions 40
Lions10Cardinals0
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 15
Lions10Cardinals3
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Lions 4
Lions16Cardinals3
Lions17Cardinals3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cardinals 1
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Lions 39
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 49 to midfield
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Cardinals 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -2.5
Closing total
40
Lions moneyline
-139
Cardinals moneyline
+126
Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 40; the game landed 20 — under by 20.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Lions 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Matt Patricia vs Steve Wilks
2nd · 4:11ARI +6% win prob(4:11) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 24 for 11 yards (57-E.Harold). DET-32-T.Wilson was injured during the play.
2nd · 13:55ARI +6% win prob(13:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end ran ob at ARI 40 for 7 yards (51-G.Hodges).
