2018 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 6, 2018 · Nissan Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -5.5 ✓O 36.5 ✓Titans closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Tennessee Titans 30–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:25, TEN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:25JAX — TEN TEN ball · 1st & 10TEN 76%

(7:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-81-J.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:25TEN +15% win prob(7:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-81-J.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q1 · 0:59TEN +11% win prob(:59) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 7, Center-45-M.Overton. 17-C.Batson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 7, and recovers at TEN 1. 17-C.Batson tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (48-L.Jacobs).
Q2 · 7:30JAX +8% win prob(7:30) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
Q1 · 11:04TEN +8% win prob(11:04) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 33-D.Lewis pushed ob at JAX 19 for 29 yards (48-L.Jacobs).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Titans
Offensive plays	66	55
Total yards	256	428 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	7.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21	0.24 (edge)
Success rate	41%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.31 (edge)
Third downs	2/12	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Cody KesslerQB

25/43, 240 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-9.7 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

18/24, 162 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

2.2 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

17 att, 238 yds, 4 TD

14.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Leonard FournetteRB

14 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-6.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Dede WestbrookWR

7/10 for 88 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Taywan TaylorWR

6/7 for 59 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 27	12	73	5:30	Touchdown
2	JAX	JAX 17	8	15	3:30	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 19	7	39	3:43	Interception
4	JAX	JAX 40	4	6	1:32	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 44	15	65	8:20	Turnover on downs
6	TEN	TEN 1	2	99	0:18	Touchdown
7	JAX	JAX 25	9	13	4:46	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 6	4	7	0:40	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 24	4	0	0:24	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 35	8	25	1:12	Turnover on downs
11	JAX	JAX 25	2	0	0:05	End of half
12	JAX	JAX 25	5	19	2:05	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 32	11	78	5:36	Touchdown
14	JAX	JAX 25	5	29	1:38	Fumble
15	TEN	TEN 46	2	54	0:11	Touchdown
16	JAX	JAX 33	13	67	3:41	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 25	8	14	3:57	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 6	6	29	1:58	Turnover on downs
19	TEN	JAX 25	7	20	4:47	Turnover on downs
20	JAX	JAX 3	9	13	2:41	Turnover on downs
21	TEN	JAX 31	5	19	3:26	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 99 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cody Kessler	25/43	240	1	0	4	-9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	14	36	2.6	-6.6
Cody Kessler	5	17	3.4	2.3
T.J. Yeldon	1	7	7.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dede Westbrook	7	10	88	1	24%	8.2
Keelan Cole	3	7	55	0	17%	2.8
Donte Moncrief	5	10	47	0	24%	-2.2
Blake Bell	2	2	16	0	5%	1.5
James O'Shaughnessy	3	4	12	0	10%	-2.0
T.J. Yeldon	1	1	10	0	2%	-0.2
Rashad Greene	1	2	10	0	5%	-0.5
Leonard Fournette	2	3	5	0	7%	-0.8
Tommy Bohanon	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.3
Carlos Hyde	1	1	-3	0	2%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Myles Jack	6	5	1.0	0	0
Telvin Smith	5	5	0.0	0	0
A.J. Bouye	4	1	0.0	0	0
Ronnie Harrison	5	0	0.0	1	1
Jalen Ramsey	4	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Hayden	3	0	0.0	0	0
Leon Jacobs	3	0	0.0	0	0
Eli Ankou	1	1	0.0	0	0
Cody Davis	1	1	0.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	18/24	162	0	1	1	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	17	238	14.0	4	14.2
Marcus Mariota	4	13	3.3	0	-2.0
Dion Lewis	10	13	1.3	0	-4.9
Corey Davis	1	0	0.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Taywan Taylor	6	7	59	29%	4.0
Dion Lewis	5	5	39	21%	1.3
Anthony Firkser	3	3	27	13%	2.8
Corey Davis	2	3	21	13%	-0.1
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	9	4%	1.5
Luke Stocker	1	1	7	4%	-0.1
Tajae Sharpe	0	4	0	17%	-6.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Wesley Woodyard	1	6	0.0	0
Logan Ryan	4	2	1.0	0
Jurrell Casey	2	4	1.5	0
Adoree' Jackson	4	1	0.0	1
Jayon Brown	2	3	0.0	1
Malcolm Butler	4	0	0.0	2
Rashaan Evans	2	2	0.0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	3	1	0.0	1
Kevin Byard	2	1	1.0	0
Derrick Morgan	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -5.5
Closing total: 36.5
JAX moneyline: +221
TEN moneyline: -248

Titans closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 39 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: JAX 4 days · TEN 4 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.