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2018 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 6, 2018 · Nissan Stadium
9
30
Tennessee Titans 30–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:25, TEN +15% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(7:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-81-J.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jaguars | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 55 |
| Total yards | 256 | 428 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 3.9 | 7.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.21 | 0.24 (edge) |
| Success rate | 41% | 45% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 74% | 47% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.17 | 0.17 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.31 | 0.31 (edge) |
| Third downs | 2/12 | 7/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
25/43, 240 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-9.7 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
18/24, 162 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
2.2 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | TEN 27 | 12 | 73 | 5:30 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 17 | 8 | 15 | 3:30 | Punt | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 19 | 7 | 39 | 3:43 | Interception | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 40 | 4 | 6 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 5 | JAX | JAX 44 | 15 | 65 | 8:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 1 | 2 | 99 | 0:18 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | JAX | JAX 25 | 9 | 13 | 4:46 | Punt | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 6 | 4 | 7 | 0:40 | Punt | |
| 9 | JAX | JAX 24 | 4 | 0 | 0:24 | Punt | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 35 | 8 | 25 | 1:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:05 | End of half | |
| 12 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | 19 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 13 | TEN | TEN 32 | 11 | 78 | 5:36 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | 29 | 1:38 | Fumble | |
| 15 | TEN | TEN 46 | 2 | 54 | 0:11 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | JAX | JAX 33 | 13 | 67 | 3:41 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | TEN | TEN 25 | 8 | 14 | 3:57 | Punt | |
| 18 | JAX | JAX 6 | 6 | 29 | 1:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | TEN | JAX 25 | 7 | 20 | 4:47 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 3 | 9 | 13 | 2:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | TEN | JAX 31 | 5 | 19 | 3:26 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 99 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 25/43 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 | -6.6 |
| Cody Kessler | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 | 2.3 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 7 | 10 | 88 | 1 | 24% | 8.2 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 17% | 2.8 |
| Donte Moncrief | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Jack | 6 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Telvin Smith | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Bouye | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 18/24 | 162 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 238 | 14.0 | 4 |
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 39 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -2.2 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5% | 1.5 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 10% | -2.0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2% | -0.2 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | -0.5 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7% | -0.8 |
| Tommy Bohanon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -1.3 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 2% | -1.3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Hayden | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leon Jacobs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Ankou | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Davis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Dion Lewis | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 0 | -4.9 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taywan Taylor | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 29% | 4.0 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 21% | 1.3 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 13% | 2.8 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 13% | -0.1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | 1.5 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | -0.1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17% | -6.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Woodyard | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Ryan | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jurrell Casey | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jayon Brown | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Butler | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Rashaan Evans | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Vaccaro | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Morgan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
