For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 at Tennessee Titans 30. Final.
Titans -5.5 ✓O 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
Tennessee Titans 30, Jaguars 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 7:25, 1st and 10, on Derrick Henry — 14.9 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:25 · 1st and 10
Derrick Henry
Titans
(7:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-81-J.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Titans closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Tennessee Titans 30–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:25, Titans +14.9% win probability on one snap.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetJaguarsQ1 0:59(:59) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 7, Center-45-M.Overton. 17-C.Batson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 7, and recovers at TEN 1. 17-C.Batson tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (48-L.Jacobs).
10.9pts
Leonard FournetteTitansQ2 7:30(7:30) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
8.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Titans won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Jaguars at 2 of 12 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 4 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Jaguars157 of 164 plays carry both curves
(7:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-81-J.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Swing +14.9 for TitansExpected points +7.34 for TitansThe model had Jaguars 11 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:25TEN +15% win prob(7:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-81-J.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
1st · 0:59TEN +11% win prob(:59) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 7, Center-45-M.Overton. 17-C.Batson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 7, and recovers at TEN 1. 17-C.Batson tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (48-L.Jacobs).
2nd · 7:30JAX +8% win prob(7:30) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
1st · 11:04TEN +8% win prob(11:04) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 33-D.Lewis pushed ob at JAX 19 for 29 yards (48-L.Jacobs).
1st · 2:31JAX +8% win prob(2:31) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left intended for 19-T.Sharpe INTERCEPTED by 36-R.Harrison at JAX 26. 36-R.Harrison to JAX 40 for 14 yards (22-D.Henry; 8-M.Mariota).
2nd · 14:15TEN +6% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass deep middle to 12-D.Westbrook to TEN 28 for 21 yards (26-L.Ryan).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 9:35 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:35Derrick Henry·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st0:59Leon Jacobs·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+22–7
2nd7:25Derrick Henry·99-yd TD run99-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+62–13
2nd0:10Ryan Succop·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+32–16
Titans ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Jaguars: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.24Titans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Jaguars: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.17Titans: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Jaguars: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.31Titans: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 66 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Titans’s 55 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Titans 7.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 13 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 62.5% in week 13 against 37.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.1 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Titans18.4%
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.8%, 12.1 points below their season mean of 16.0% and 1.8 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
53 dressed · 8 never used
69Tyler ShatleyC · Every snap100%71 snaps
78Jermey ParnellT · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Patrick OmamehG · Every snap100%71 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%71 snaps
6Cody KesslerQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
75Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%71 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Full-time92%65 snaps
27Leonard FournetteRB · Heavy rotation77%55 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation76%54 snaps
10Donte MoncriefWR · Heavy rotation75%53 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Heavy rotation72%51 snaps
87Blake BellTE · Rotational32%23 snaps
83Ben KoyackTE · Situational24%17 snaps
13Rashad GreeneWR · Situational17%12 snaps
24T.J. YeldonRB · Situational17%12 snaps
40Tommy BohanonFB · Situational10%7 snaps
64Chris ReedG · Situational4%3 snaps
34Carlos HydeRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Tre HerndonCBC.J. ReavisCBJosh WalkerGAbry JonesNTBlake BortlesQBDavid WilliamsRBBarry ChurchSSD.J. CharkWR
Tennessee Titans
53 dressed · 9 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%60 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%60 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Full-time98%59 snaps
64Josh KlineG · Full-time95%57 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time82%49 snaps
13Taywan TaylorWR · Heavy rotation68%41 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Heavy rotation67%40 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
33Dion LewisRB · Heavy rotation63%38 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational40%24 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational38%23 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational37%22 snaps
71Dennis KellyOT · Rotational35%21 snaps
19Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational33%20 snaps
15Darius JenningsWR · Rotational30%18 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational28%17 snaps
17Cameron BatsonWR · Situational12%7 snaps
62Corey LevinG · Situational8%5 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Dane CruikshankDBMatt DickersonDEAaron StinnieGWill ComptonILBKamalei CorreaILBTyler MarzOTBlaine GabbertQBDavid FluellenRBJeremy McNicholsRB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Henry up+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-81-J.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q2 7:25 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 1 · gained 99 · +7.34 EP · +17.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 99 yards from the TEN 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0785%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0362%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.5236%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5845%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.7622%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Jaguars0Titans6
Jaguars0Titans7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Jaguars 3
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 40
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Jaguars 42
Jaguars2Titans7
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 46
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Titans 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Jaguars2Titans13
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 47
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Titans 13
Punt4 plays
Jaguars2Titans16
Field goal12 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Jaguars 15
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
Jaguars2Titans22
Jaguars2Titans23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Jaguars 16
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 35
Jaguars2Titans29
Jaguars2Titans30
Touchdown2 plays
Jaguars8Titans30
Jaguars9Titans30
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Titans 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 31
4th quarter36 plays
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Jaguars 25
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 1
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Jaguars 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
