2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Soldier Field

Los Angeles Rams

Chicago BearsWinner

LA -3 upsetU 50.5 ✓29°FRams closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 15–6. Biggest swing: Q3 4:10, LA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:10LA — CHI CHI ball · 2nd & 7CHI 80%

(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 80-T.Burton INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 38. 43-J.Johnson to CHI 27 for 35 yards (84-B.Braunecker).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:10LA +16% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 80-T.Burton INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 38. 43-J.Johnson to CHI 27 for 35 yards (84-B.Braunecker).
Q1 · 11:03LA +14% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 15-J.Bellamy INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at LA 37. 22-M.Peters pushed ob at CHI 15 for 48 yards (78-B.Witzmann).
Q3 · 3:58LA +12% win prob(3:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at CHI 16. 23-K.Fuller to CHI 19 for 3 yards (83-J.Reynolds).
Q2 · 11:14LA +10% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at LA 26. 58-R.Smith pushed ob at LA 4 for 22 yards (79-R.Havenstein).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Bears
Offensive plays	61	64
Total yards	214	296 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	4.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.33	-0.20 (edge)
Success rate	36%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	80%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	3 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

20/44, 180 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-22.3 expected points added · -20.4% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

16/30, 110 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-14.5 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

19 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Tarik CohenRB

9 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

7/13 for 61 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -7.1 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

5/8 for 42 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 23	8	24	4:13	Interception
2	LA	CHI 15	4	6	1:35	Turnover on downs
3	CHI	CHI 25	13	69	6:24	Turnover on downs
4	LA	LA 26	8	19	2:58	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 26	7	29	3:05	Punt
6	LA	LA 20	1	0	0:41	Interception
7	CHI	LA 4	4	6	1:40	Turnover on downs
8	LA	LA 25	14	48	5:12	Turnover on downs
9	CHI	CHI 25	8	21	2:34	Punt
10	LA	LA 14	5	19	0:47	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 39	3	0	0:32	Interception
12	LA	CHI 49	2	6	0:19	Interception
13	LA	LA 13	3	-13	0:46	Turnover on downs
14	CHI	CHI 19	11	81	4:16	Touchdown
15	LA	LA 18	5	8	2:13	Punt
16	CHI	CHI 12	7	19	3:47	Interception
17	LA	CHI 27	1	0	0:06	Interception
18	CHI	CHI 19	5	14	3:20	Punt
19	LA	LA 5	14	78	5:21	Turnover on downs
20	CHI	CHI 30	5	25	3:27	Punt
21	LA	LA 18	7	8	2:16	Turnover on downs
22	CHI	LA 26	4	6	1:43	Turnover on downs
23	LA	LA 28	6	16	0:32	Interception
24	CHI	CHI 48	4	2	1:48	Punt
25	LA	LA 2	1	19	0:25	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	20/44	180	0	4	3	-22.3
Johnny Hekker	1/1	7	0	0	0	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Todd Gurley	11	28	2.5	-1.3
Justin Davis	1	19	19.0	0.1
Jared Goff	1	5	5.0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	7	13	61	30%	-7.1
Josh Reynolds	3	7	36	16%	-5.8
Todd Gurley	3	7	30	16%	0.5
Gerald Everett	4	7	29	16%	1.6
Brandin Cooks	3	8	22	19%	-2.6
Tyler Higbee	1	1	9	2%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Cory Littleton	5	2	0	0
Michael Brockers	4	2	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	6	0	0	0
Aqib Talib	5	0	0	0
Ndamukong Suh	5	0	0	0
John Johnson	4	1	1	1
Mark Barron	3	0	0	0
Nickell Robey	2	1	1	2
Marcus Peters	3	0	1	1
Aaron Donald	1	1	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	16/30	110	1	3	1	-14.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jordan Howard	19	101	5.3	-0.2
Tarik Cohen	9	69	7.7	0.7
Mitchell Trubisky	6	23	3.8	1.2
Taquan Mizzell	1	1	1.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	5	8	42	0	29%	0.5
Trey Burton	2	5	22	0	18%	-6.8
Taylor Gabriel	3	7	22	0	25%	-1.1
Tarik Cohen	4	4	20	0	14%	2.2
Jordan Howard	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.8
Bradley Sowell	1	1	2	1	4%	1.7
Anthony Miller	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Josh Bellamy	0	1	0	0	4%	-6.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Sherrick McManis	6	1	0.0	0	0
Prince Amukamara	5	1	0.0	1	3
Roquan Smith	3	2	0.0	1	1
Kyle Fuller	3	1	0.0	1	1
Khalil Mack	2	1	1.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	2	1	0.0	0	1
Akiem Hicks	3	0	1.0	0	0
Bryce Callahan	2	0	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	2	0	0.0	0	0
Benny Cunningham	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3
Closing total: 50.5
LA moneyline: -139
CHI moneyline: +126

Rams closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 21 — under by 29.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 29°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: LA 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Matt Nagy