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Chicago Bears 15, Rams 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:10, 2nd and 7, on John Johnson — 15.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:10 · 2nd and 7
John Johnson
Rams
(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 80-T.Burton INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 38. 43-J.Johnson to CHI 27 for 35 yards (84-B.Braunecker).
25°F
Rams closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 15–6. Biggest swing: Q3 4:10, Rams +15.6% win probability on one snap.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marcus PetersRamsQ1 11:03(11:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 15-J.Bellamy INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at LA 37. 22-M.Peters pushed ob at CHI 15 for 48 yards (78-B.Witzmann).
13.6pts
Kyle FullerBearsQ3 3:58(3:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at CHI 16. 23-K.Fuller to CHI 19 for 3 yards (83-J.Reynolds).
12.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Bears won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Rams at 3 of 12 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Rams at 3 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Rams at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 3 giveaways, against Rams at 4 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Rams166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 80-T.Burton INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 38. 43-J.Johnson to CHI 27 for 35 yards (84-B.Braunecker).
Swing −15.6 for BearsExpected points −6.25 for BearsThe model had Bears 8 points higher than the market did.play 121
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:10LA +16% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 80-T.Burton INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 38. 43-J.Johnson to CHI 27 for 35 yards (84-B.Braunecker).
1st · 11:03LA +14% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 15-J.Bellamy INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at LA 37. 22-M.Peters pushed ob at CHI 15 for 48 yards (78-B.Witzmann).
3rd · 3:58LA +12% win prob(3:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at CHI 16. 23-K.Fuller to CHI 19 for 3 yards (83-J.Reynolds).
2nd · 11:14LA +10% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at LA 26. 58-R.Smith pushed ob at LA 4 for 22 yards (79-R.Havenstein).
1st · 5:01CHI +9% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen right tackle pushed ob at LA 16 for 32 yards (20-L.Joyner).
2nd · 8:18CHI +9% win prob(8:18) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 81-G.Everett to LA 34 for 6 yards (30-B.Cunningham). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 81-G.Everett to LA 35 for 7 yards (30-B.Cunningham).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddie Goldman's safety with 14:18 left in the 3rd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:16Greg Zuerlein·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
1st2:53Cody Parkey·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–3
2nd9:28Cody Parkey·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–6
2nd4:17Greg Zuerlein·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+36–6
3rd14:18Eddie Goldman·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball backLead never changed again+26–8
Bears ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Rams: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.20Bears: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Rams: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.36Bears: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.02Bears: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 61 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Bears’s 64 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Rams 1, Bears 4.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's early-down pass rate, 76.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 14.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.7 points.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 31.6% in week 13 against 5.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.2 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bears16.3%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 27.7 points below their season mean of 27.7% and 1.7 times their own 16.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 15-J.Bellamy INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at LA 37. 22-M.Peters pushed ob at CHI 15 for 48 yards (78-B.Witzmann).
Q1 11:03 · Bears · 2nd & 15 at CHI 42 · gained nothing · -6.56 EP · −16.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 81 yards from the CHI 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.28
Success rate
33%
Yards
508
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.3878%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0453%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0533%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2243%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 47
Rams3Bears0
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 9
Rams3Bears3
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Rams 11
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 46
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Rams 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Rams3Bears6
Field goal7 plays
Rams6Bears6
Field goal16 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bears 32
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 46
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Rams 33
Intercepted3 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Bears 48
3rd quarter37 plays
Rams6Bears8
Rams6Bears14
Rams6Bears15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Rams 2
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 26
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 43
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 38
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter49 plays
No good16 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Bears 17
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 30 to midfield
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 38
No good6 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 20
Intercepted6 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 44
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 48 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
