2018 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 10, 2018 · CenturyLink Field

Minnesota Vikings

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -3 ✓U 45.5 ✓Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Seattle Seahawks 21–7. Biggest swing: Q4 12:43, SEA +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:43MIN — SEA MIN ball · 1st & 10SEA 78%

(12:43) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to SEA 17 for 48 yards (37-T.Flowers).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:43SEA +13% win prob(12:43) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to SEA 17 for 48 yards (37-T.Flowers).
Q4 · 9:10MIN +12% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 82-K.Rudolph (30-B.McDougald).
Q2 · 0:16MIN +12% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks [99-D.Hunter] at MIN 15. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 18 for 3 yards (65-G.Ifedi).
Q3 · 2:05MIN +10% win prob(2:05) 69-R.Hill reported in as eligible. 25-L.Murray right guard to SEA 40 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 55-F.Clark). Penalty on MIN-69-R.Hill, Offensive Holding, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Seahawks
Offensive plays	55	63
Total yards	277	278 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.30	-0.08 (edge)
Success rate	44% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	64%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	2/10	3/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

20/33, 208 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-11.9 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

10/20, 72 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-13.0 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

22 att, 90 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

7 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Stefon DiggsWR

4/6 for 76 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

5/7 for 70 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 23	7	22	3:36	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 20	4	9	2:05	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 16	7	10	3:29	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 11	13	70	6:39	Turnover on downs
5	MIN	MIN 22	6	9	2:45	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 23	8	42	3:24	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 10	5	21	2:13	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 40	13	54	5:43	Interception
9	MIN	MIN 18	1	0	0:06	End of half
10	SEA	SEA 25	9	23	3:54	Punt
11	MIN	MIN 17	7	22	3:22	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 18	4	3	1:32	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 28	7	27	4:11	Turnover on downs
14	SEA	SEA 40	8	12	3:39	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	MIN 25	9	74	4:16	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 2	4	0	0:58	Punt
17	MIN	SEA 41	8	22	2:30	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	SEA 37	8	65	2:45	Touchdown
19	MIN	MIN 25	3	0	0:18	Defensive touchdown
20	MIN	MIN 30	8	70	1:25	Touchdown
21	SEA	SEA 46	3	0	1:10	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 74 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	20/33	208	1	0	2	-11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	13	55	4.2	-1.3
Adam Thielen	1	8	8.0	-0.5
Kirk Cousins	3	5	1.7	1.0
Stefon Diggs	1	5	5.0	0.1
Latavius Murray	3	4	1.3	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	4	6	76	0	19%	3.8
Adam Thielen	5	7	70	0	23%	2.6
Dalvin Cook	5	7	28	1	23%	1.1
Laquon Treadwell	3	3	16	0	10%	0.2
Tyler Conklin	1	2	11	0	6%	0.8
Kyle Rudolph	2	5	7	0	16%	-5.7
Aldrick Robinson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Linval Joseph	3	6	0.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	6	2	0.0	0	0
Holton Hill	7	1	0.0	0	3
Ben Gedeon	2	5	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	4	3	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	1	4	0.0	1	1
Anthony Barr	2	1	1.0	0	0
Stephen Weatherly	1	1	0.0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	1	1	1.0	0	0
Everson Griffen	1	1	0.0	0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	10/20	72	0	1	2	-13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	22	90	4.1	1	3.6
Russell Wilson	7	61	8.7	0	3.7
Rashaad Penny	8	44	5.5	0	0.7
Mike Davis	3	22	7.3	0	1.7
Tyler Lockett	2	-3	-1.5	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	5	6	42	38%	1.1
Nick Vannett	1	1	12	6%	0.7
George Fant	1	1	9	6%	0.7
Mike Davis	1	1	5	6%	-0.4
Ed Dickson	1	1	4	6%	-0.2
Jaron Brown	1	1	0	6%	-0.7
David Moore	0	5	0	31%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tre Flowers	7	1	0.0	1
Shaquill Griffin	6	1	0.0	2
Bobby Wagner	2	4	0.0	0
Tedric Thompson	2	3	0.0	0
Frank Clark	2	2	1.0	0
Mychal Kendricks	1	2	0.0	0
Barkevious Mingo	2	0	0.0	0
Bradley McDougald	2	0	0.0	2
Jarran Reed	2	0	0.0	0
Dion Jordan	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3
Closing total: 45.5
MIN moneyline: +151
SEA moneyline: -171

Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 28 — under by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: MIN 8 days · SEA 8 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Pete Carroll