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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 10, 2018 · CenturyLink Field
Final
VikingsMinnesota7
BY 14final margin
SeahawksSeattle21
Minnesota Vikings 7 at Seattle Seahawks 21. Final.
Seahawks -3 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
Seattle Seahawks 21, Vikings 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:43, 1st and 10, on Stefon Diggs — 13.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:43 · 1st and 10
Stefon Diggs
Vikings
(12:43) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to SEA 17 for 48 yards (37-T.Flowers).
Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Seattle Seahawks 21–7. Biggest swing: Q4 12:43, Vikings +13.2% win probability on one snap.
13.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Eric KendricksVikingsQ2 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks [99-D.Hunter] at MIN 15. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 18 for 3 yards (65-G.Ifedi).
11.6pts
Kirk CousinsSeahawksQ4 9:10(9:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 82-K.Rudolph (30-B.McDougald).
11.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Vikings at 4 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Vikings149 of 160 plays carry both curves
(12:43) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to SEA 17 for 48 yards (37-T.Flowers).
Swing −13.2 for SeahawksExpected points −3.25 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 113
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:43SEA +13% win prob(12:43) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to SEA 17 for 48 yards (37-T.Flowers).
4th · 9:10MIN +12% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 82-K.Rudolph (30-B.McDougald).
2nd · 0:16MIN +12% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks [99-D.Hunter] at MIN 15. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 18 for 3 yards (65-G.Ifedi).
3rd · 2:05MIN +10% win prob(2:05) 69-R.Hill reported in as eligible. 25-L.Murray right guard to SEA 40 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 55-F.Clark). Penalty on MIN-69-R.Hill, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 5:46MIN +10% win prob(5:46) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-B.Wagner), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
4th · 15:00SEA +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Lockett [55-A.Barr]. PENALTY on MIN-29-X.Rhodes, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at MIN 41 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sebastian Janikowski's 37-yard field goal with 14:15 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:15Sebastian Janikowski·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.OttLead never changed again+30–3
4th13:26Sebastian Janikowski·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+30–6
Seahawks ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Vikings: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Vikings: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.37Seahawks: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Vikings: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 55 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 63 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 2, Seahawks 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Seahawks20.0%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SEA's pass rate over expected, -16.4 pts against a season mean of -11.6 pts — and SEA swings 5.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks [99-D.Hunter] at MIN 15. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 18 for 3 yards (65-G.Ifedi).
Q2 0:16 · Seahawks · 1st & goal at MIN 1 · gained nothing · -5.46 EP · −14.1% win probability
147 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 74 yards from the MIN 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
41%
Yards
552
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.4578%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.7352%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.2619%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR12-0.0433%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.7129%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6-0.3617%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 45
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 29
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 43
The period ended11 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Vikings 15
2nd quarter40 plays
Vikings0Seahawks3
Field goal3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 40
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Vikings 35
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.2 seconds
Intercepted15 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Vikings 1
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 49
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 39
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Seahawks 21
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Seahawks 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Vikings 41
4th quarter55 plays
Vikings0Seahawks6
Field goal5 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Vikings 10
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Seahawks 1
Punt4 plays
No good8 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Seahawks 29
Vikings0Seahawks12
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Vikings 2
Vikings0Seahawks14
Vikings0Seahawks20
Touchdown3 plays
Vikings0Seahawks21
Vikings6Seahawks21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Seahawks 6
Vikings7Seahawks21
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -3
Closing total
45.5
Vikings moneyline
+151
Seahawks moneyline
-171
Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 28 — under by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 47°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south; mainly clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Vikings 8 days · Seahawks 8 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Pete Carroll
2nd · 8:16MIN +7% win prob(8:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on SEA-66-J.Simmons, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 35.
2nd · 11:33SEA +6% win prob(11:33) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to SEA 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.
