2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NO -8.5 ✓U 55 ✓Saints closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.

New Orleans Saints 28–14. Biggest swing: Q3 14:22, NO +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:22NO — TB NO ball · 2nd & 6TB 59%

(14:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 24 for -6 yards (94-C.Nassib). FUMBLES (94-C.Nassib), RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at NO 27.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:22NO +19% win prob(14:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 24 for -6 yards (94-C.Nassib). FUMBLES (94-C.Nassib), RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at NO 27.
Q4 · 11:48TB +18% win prob(11:48) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:54NO +14% win prob(12:54) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q2 · 2:28NO +13% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 22-M.Ingram INTERCEPTED by 53-A.Taylor [97-V.Curry] at NO 46. 53-A.Taylor to NO 39 for 7 yards (60-M.Unger).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	61	65
Total yards	302 (edge)	279
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	48% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	52%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

18/38, 213 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

24/31, 201 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.3 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

13 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

12 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

11/13 for 98 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

4/6 for 86 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	9	75	2:41	Touchdown
2	NO	NO 28	10	35	4:05	Punt
3	TB	TB 20	9	23	3:49	Punt
4	NO	NO 11	4	6	2:42	Punt
5	TB	TB 25	12	47	5:26	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 36	9	52	4:11	Turnover on downs
7	TB	TB 23	8	29	2:48	Punt
8	NO	NO 34	4	12	1:56	Interception
9	TB	NO 39	7	24	1:56	Touchdown
10	NO	NO 25	2	0	0:26	End of half
11	NO	NO 26	3	1	0:46	Fumble
12	TB	NO 27	4	5	1:24	Turnover on downs
13	NO	NO 30	4	9	2:08	Punt
14	TB	TB 13	8	33	3:24	Punt
15	NO	TB 30	6	32	2:35	Touchdown
16	TB	TB 25	5	-13	2:22	Punt
17	NO	NO 49	11	51	5:35	Touchdown
18	TB	TB 9	5	4	1:12	Punt
19	NO	NO 47	8	53	3:08	Touchdown
20	TB	TB 25	7	3	1:54	Punt
21	NO	NO 41	11	51	4:20	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 25	7	49	1:11	Interception
23	NO	NO 20	1	0	0:01	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	24/31	201	1	1	1	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	13	52	4.0	1	-2.5
Alvin Kamara	12	51	4.3	0	0.1
Zach Line	1	4	4.0	0	0.4
Drew Brees	3	-1	-0.3	1	2.5
Taysom Hill	1	-6	-6.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	11	13	98	0	42%	6.7
Alvin Kamara	5	6	36	0	19%	2.6
Benjamin Watson	3	3	24	0	10%	1.6
Keith Kirkwood	2	2	21	0	6%	0.7
Tommylee Lewis	1	1	20	0	3%	1.4
Mark Ingram	1	3	1	0	10%	-6.3
Zach Line	1	1	1	1	3%	0.9
Tre'Quan Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Josh Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marcus Williams	5	1	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	5	1	0.0	0	1
Alex Okafor	4	0	0.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	0	0.0	1	2
Marcus Davenport	2	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	4	0	2.0	0	1
A.J. Klein	3	0	1.0	0	0
Eli Apple	2	1	0.0	0	2
Sheldon Rankins	1	2	1.0	0	1
Vonn Bell	3	0	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	18/38	213	2	1	4	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jameis Winston	5	47	9.4	4.4
Peyton Barber	14	42	3.0	-4.6
Jacquizz Rodgers	4	16	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	4	6	86	0	16%	4.7
Adam Humphries	4	8	42	0	22%	1.4
Jacquizz Rodgers	4	5	38	0	14%	-0.0
Chris Godwin	1	10	13	0	27%	-5.7
Antony Auclair	1	1	12	0	3%	0.7
Cameron Brate	2	4	12	2	11%	4.1
Bobo Wilson	1	1	8	0	3%	-1.1
Peyton Barber	1	2	2	0	5%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Lavonte David	7	1	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	6	1	0	2
Adarius Taylor	4	2	1	1
Andrew Adams	4	1	0	0
Ryan Smith	1	3	0	0
Josh Shaw	3	0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	1	0	1
Vita Vea	2	1	0	0
Bobo Wilson	2	0	0	0
Javien Elliott	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -8.5
Closing total: 55
NO moneyline: -380
TB moneyline: +330

Saints closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 55; the game landed 42 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: NO 10 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Dirk Koetter

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.