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2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
28
14
New Orleans Saints 28–14. Biggest swing: Q3 14:22, NO +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(14:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 24 for -6 yards (94-C.Nassib). FUMBLES (94-C.Nassib), RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at NO 27.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Saints | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 61 | 65 |
| Total yards | 302 (edge) | 279 |
| Yards per play | 5.0 (edge) | 4.3 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.03 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 35% |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 72% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.04 (edge) | 0.02 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 (edge) | -0.26 |
| Third downs | 6/12 (edge) | 6/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
18/38, 213 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-3.6 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected
Passing · NO
24/31, 201 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.3 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 25 | 9 | 75 | 2:41 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | NO | NO 28 | 10 | 35 | 4:05 | Punt | |
| 3 | TB | TB 20 | 9 | 23 | 3:49 | Punt | |
| 4 | NO | NO 11 | 4 | 6 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 5 | TB | TB 25 | 12 | 47 | 5:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | NO | NO 36 | 9 | 52 | 4:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | TB | TB 23 | 8 | 29 | 2:48 | Punt | |
| 8 | NO | NO 34 | 4 | 12 | 1:56 | Interception | |
| 9 | TB | NO 39 | 7 | 24 | 1:56 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | NO | NO 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:26 | End of half | |
| 11 | NO | NO 26 | 3 | 1 | 0:46 | Fumble | |
| 12 | TB | NO 27 | 4 | 5 | 1:24 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | NO | NO 30 | 4 | 9 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 14 | TB | TB 13 | 8 | 33 | 3:24 | Punt | |
| 15 | NO | TB 30 | 6 | 32 | 2:35 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | -13 | 2:22 | Punt | |
| 17 | NO | NO 49 | 11 | 51 | 5:35 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | TB | TB 9 | 5 | 4 | 1:12 | Punt | |
| 19 | NO | NO 47 | 8 | 53 | 3:08 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | TB | TB 25 | 7 | 3 | 1:54 | Punt | |
| 21 | NO | NO 41 | 11 | 51 | 4:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | TB | TB 25 | 7 | 49 | 1:11 | Interception | |
| 23 | NO | NO 20 | 1 | 0 | 0:01 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/31 | 201 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Zach Line | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 | 2.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 11 | 13 | 98 | 0 | 42% | 6.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 19% | 2.6 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Williams | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Okafor | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/38 | 213 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 55; the game landed 42 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.6 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 6% | 0.7 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | 1.4 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10% | -6.3 |
| Zach Line | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | 0.9 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Marcus Davenport | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Klein | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vonn Bell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.4 |
| Peyton Barber | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 | -4.6 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 6 | 86 | 0 | 16% | 4.7 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 22% | 1.4 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 14% | -0.0 |
| Chris Godwin | 1 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 27% | -5.7 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 11% | 4.1 |
| Bobo Wilson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | -1.1 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5% | 0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Adarius Taylor | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Andrew Adams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Smith | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Shaw | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javien Elliott | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
