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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans28
BY 14final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay14
New Orleans Saints 28 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14. Final.
Saints -8.5 ✓U 55 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
New Orleans Saints 28, Buccaneers 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:22, 2nd and 6, on Drew Brees — 18.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:22 · 2nd and 6
Drew Brees
Buccaneers
(14:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 24 for -6 yards (94-C.Nassib). FUMBLES (94-C.Nassib), RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at NO 27.
Saints closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.
New Orleans Saints 28–14. Biggest swing: Q3 14:22, Buccaneers +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cairo SantosSaintsQ3 12:54(12:54) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
13.5pts
Drew BreesSaintsQ4 11:48(11:48) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
17.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Saints won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Buccaneers at 6 of 14 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Saints167 of 180 plays carry both curves
(14:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 24 for -6 yards (94-C.Nassib). FUMBLES (94-C.Nassib), RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at NO 27.
Swing +18.6 for BuccaneersExpected points +5.26 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 26 points higher than the market did.play 90
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:22NO +19% win prob(14:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 24 for -6 yards (94-C.Nassib). FUMBLES (94-C.Nassib), RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at NO 27.
4th · 11:48TB +18% win prob(11:48) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:54NO +14% win prob(12:54) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
2nd · 2:28NO +13% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 22-M.Ingram INTERCEPTED by 53-A.Taylor [97-V.Curry] at NO 46. 53-A.Taylor to NO 39 for 7 yards (60-M.Unger).
2nd · 1:09TB +11% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 10-A.Humphries to NO 1 for 9 yards (24-V.Bell, 25-E.Apple).
3rd · 7:23NO +10% win prob(7:23) 9-B.Anger punt is BLOCKED by 7-T.Hill, Center-89-G.Sanborn, RECOVERED by NO-27-D.Washington at TB 30. 27-D.Washington to TB 30 for no gain (52-C.Lynch).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Drew Brees's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:48 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th1:15Wil Lutz·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+328–14
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Saints8–1Buccaneers
302Total yards279
5.0Yards per play4.3
48%Success rate35%
50%Third-down rate43%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
20First downs17
1Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Saints: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.06Buccaneers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Saints: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.02Buccaneers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Saints: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.26Buccaneers: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 61 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 65 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Saints 5, Buccaneers 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Buccaneers12.5%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NO's sack or hit rate, 21.3% against a season mean of 15.3% — and NO swings 6.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 9 never used
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%64 snaps
60Max UngerC · Every snap100%64 snaps
74Jermon BushrodT · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%64 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%64 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time91%58 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
22Mark IngramRB · Rotational45%29 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Rotational44%28 snaps
18Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational34%22 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Rotational27%17 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Situational22%14 snaps
11Tommylee LewisWR · Situational20%13 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational11%7 snaps
65Michael OlaT · Situational8%5 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Will ClappCKen CrawleyCBTrey HendricksonDEMitchell LoewenDEManti Te'oMLBTeddy BridgewaterQBTerron ArmsteadTDan ArnoldTEBrandon MarshallWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:28) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 22-M.Ingram INTERCEPTED by 53-A.Taylor [97-V.Curry] at NO 46. 53-A.Taylor to NO 39 for 7 yards (60-M.Unger).
Q2 2:28 · Saints · 2nd & 6 at TB 49 · gained nothing · -4.69 EP · −14.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 75 yards from the TB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
37%
Yards
579
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1367%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1571%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.5242%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2130%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.1783%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3633%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1220%
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Saints0Buccaneers6
Saints0Buccaneers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 11
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Buccaneers 42
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Saints 45
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Saints 15
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 37
2nd quarter48 plays
No good9 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Saints 20
Saints3Buccaneers7
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Buccaneers 12
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Buccaneers 49
Saints3Buccaneers13
Saints3Buccaneers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Saints 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 30
No good4 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 22
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 39
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 41
Saints9Buccaneers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 1
Saints11Buccaneers14
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Buccaneers 23
4th quarter55 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, four linebackers and one backIn the boxEleven defenders
Saints17Buccaneers14
Saints18Buccaneers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Buccaneers 13
Saints24Buccaneers14
Saints25Buccaneers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Buccaneers 17
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 42
Saints28Buccaneers14
Field goal15 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Buccaneers 12
Intercepted8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -8.5
Closing total
55
Saints moneyline
-380
Buccaneers moneyline
+330
Saints closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 55; the game landed 42 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 67°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; 0.45 in of precipitation; heavy rain.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Saints 10 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Dirk Koetter
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 3:16NO +9% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 12 for -13 yards (94-C.Jordan).
1st · 12:24TB +9% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-24-V.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
