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New York Giants 40 at Washington Commanders 16. Final.
Giants -3 ✓O 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 14
New York Giants 40, Commanders 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 2:52, 2nd and 11, on Curtis Riley — 11.9 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:52 · 2nd and 11
Curtis Riley
Giants
(2:52) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass short left intended for 17-M.Floyd INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Riley (96-K.Martin) at WAS 9. 35-C.Riley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Giants closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
New York Giants 40–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:52, Giants +11.9% win probability on one snap.
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Eli ManningCommandersQ1 4:09(4:09) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 49 for -8 yards (95-D.Payne).
6.6pts
Saquon BarkleyGiantsQ2 8:54(8:54) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Giants167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(2:52) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass short left intended for 17-M.Floyd INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Riley (96-K.Martin) at WAS 9. 35-C.Riley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.9 for CommandersExpected points −5.89 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 16 points higher than the market did.play 36
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:52NYG +12% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass short left intended for 17-M.Floyd INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Riley (96-K.Martin) at WAS 9. 35-C.Riley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:09NYG +7% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 49 for -8 yards (95-D.Payne).
2nd · 8:54WAS +5% win prob(8:54) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:49NYG +5% win prob(12:49) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at NYG 18 for -3 yards (24-J.Norman).
1st · 3:17NYG +5% win prob(3:17) 26-A.Peterson left end to WAS 1 for -1 yards (20-J.Jenkins). Penalty on WAS-71-T.Williams, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 10:32WAS +4% win prob(10:32) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 27 for 2 yards (34-B.Marshall).
1st · 14:28
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Curtis Riley's 9-yard touchdown with 2:52 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Giants ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Giants: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.31Commanders: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Giants: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.31Commanders: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Giants: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.30Commanders: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 62 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Commanders’s 59 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Giants 6, Commanders 3.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Commanders17.2%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.7%, 21.0 points below their season mean of 57.7% and 1.7 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Sanchez pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:52) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass short left intended for 17-M.Floyd INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Riley (96-K.Martin) at WAS 9. 35-C.Riley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 2:52 · Commanders · 2nd & 11 at WAS 1 · gained nothing · -5.89 EP · −16.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 92 yards from the WAS 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
38%
Yards
694
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.3265%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0861%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.3330%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1625%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 31
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 47
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Commanders 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Giants6Commanders0
Touchdown2 plays
Giants7Commanders0
Punt6 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Giants10Commanders0
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Commanders 3
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Giants16Commanders0
Giants17Commanders0
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 33
Giants23Commanders0
Giants24Commanders0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 3
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 33
Giants30Commanders0
Giants31Commanders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Commanders 6
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 31
Giants34Commanders0
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Commanders 5
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 26
Giants40Commanders0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Commanders 11
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Giants 22
4th quarter48 plays
Intercepted4 plays
Giants40Commanders6
Giants40Commanders8
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Giants 8
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Giants40Commanders14
Giants40Commanders16
Touchdown6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Intercepted9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Giants 18
The period ended12 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Commanders 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Giants -3
Closing total
40.5
Giants moneyline
-167
Commanders moneyline
+151
Giants closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 56 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Giants 7 days · Commanders 6 days
Coaches
Pat Shurmur vs Jay Gruden
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
WAS +4% win prob
(14:28) 26-A.Peterson right tackle to WAS 38 for 12 yards (94-D.Tomlinson; 35-C.Riley).
1st · 4:59WAS +4% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Coleman. PENALTY on WAS-31-F.Moreau, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at NYG 25 - No Play.
