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2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · New Era Field
27
23
New York Jets 27–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:36, NYJ +47% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 31 for 5 yards (21-M.Claiborne) [92-L.Williams]. Caught near sideline at NYJ 31.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jets | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 50 | 71 |
| Total yards | 247 | 368 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.9 | 5.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.06 (edge) | 0.02 |
| Success rate | 38% | 39% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 50% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.21 (edge) | 0.01 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.09 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/12 | 7/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 2 (edge) | 3 |
Bills outgained Jets 368–247 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
18/36, 206 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-5.3 expected points added · -11.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
16/24, 170 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.1 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 27 | 13 | 77 | 5:48 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | NYJ | NYJ 14 | 5 | 14 | 2:27 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 25 | 3 | 4 | 0:51 | Fumble | |
| 4 | NYJ | BUF 32 | 4 | 3 | 1:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 25 | 9 | 42 | 3:27 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | NYJ | BUF 46 | 11 | 43 | 4:57 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 29 | 9 | 58 | 3:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | NYJ | BUF 8 | 3 | 4 | 0:43 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 25 | 3 | 1 | 1:44 | Interception | |
| 10 | NYJ | BUF 45 | 4 | 4 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 9 | 11 | 48 | 3:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | NYJ | — | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | Fumble | |
| 13 | BUF | NYJ 13 | 4 | 2 | 1:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | NYJ | NYJ 35 | 10 | 32 | 5:14 | Interception | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 14 | 10 | 31 | 5:00 | Punt | |
| 16 | NYJ | NYJ 15 | 12 | 85 | 6:02 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 16 | 10 | 43 | 4:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | NYJ | NYJ 44 | 4 | 4 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 20 | 9 | 62 | 3:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | NYJ | NYJ 39 | 10 | 58 | 1:14 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | BUF | BUF 22 | 3 | 0 | 0:18 | Interception | |
| 22 | NYJ | BUF 45 | 2 | 0 | 0:59 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/24 | 170 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.1 |
| Josh McCown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah McGuire | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Trenton Cannon | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 7 | 76 | 1 | 29% | 6.4 |
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 17% | 0.6 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neville Hewitt | 5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Morris Claiborne | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Buster Skrine | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avery Williamson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/36 | 206 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5.3 |
| Zay Jones | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37; the game landed 50 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.8 |
| Christopher Herndon | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 8% | -1.7 |
| Jordan Leggett | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | 0.9 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | 0.6 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 0.1 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | -1.2 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | -0.5 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kevin Pierre-Louis | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trumaine Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve McLendon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Anderson | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Robinson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 101 | 11.2 | 1 | 8.8 |
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Marcus Murphy | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Foster | 7 | 8 | 104 | 0 | 23% | 10.5 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 20% | 2.8 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 26% | -8.5 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | 0.7 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 1.4 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | -1.0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | -0.4 |
| Josh Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.5 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Levi Wallace | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Poyer | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Hughes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Lawson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Rafael Bush | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Murphy | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
