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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 27, Bills 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:36, 3rd and 16, on Zay Jones — 47.5 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:36 · 3rd and 16
Zay Jones
Jets
(:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 31 for 5 yards (21-M.Claiborne) [92-L.Williams]. Caught near sideline at NYJ 31.
30°F
Bills closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 27–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:36, Jets +47.5% win probability on one snap.
47.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Robbie ChosenJetsQ4 1:54(1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson pushed ob at BUF 5 for 37 yards (27-T.White). Caught along sideline at BUF 5. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
19.9pts
Elijah McGuireJetsQ4 1:22(1:22) 25-E.McGuire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
21.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jets won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets won this one — 2 giveaways, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Bills at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jets161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 31 for 5 yards (21-M.Claiborne) [92-L.Williams]. Caught near sideline at NYJ 31.
Swing −47.5 for BillsExpected points −1.16 for BillsThe model had Jets 6 points higher than the market did.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:36NYJ +47% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 31 for 5 yards (21-M.Claiborne) [92-L.Williams]. Caught near sideline at NYJ 31.
4th · 1:22BUF +21% win prob(1:22) 25-E.McGuire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:54BUF +20% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson pushed ob at BUF 5 for 37 yards (27-T.White). Caught along sideline at BUF 5. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
4th · 4:15BUF +16% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 16-R.Foster to NYJ 23 for 38 yards (27-D.Roberts, 30-R.Robinson). Caught near sideline at NYJ 39.
4th · 1:07NYJ +16% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Johnson at BUF 45. 22-T.Johnson to BUF 45 for no gain (11-Z.Jones). Receiver and coverage near sideline.
4th · 12:17BUF +15% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Elijah McGuire's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:22 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd13:26Stephen Hauschka·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Darr · snap R.Ferguson+313–20
4th12:17Robbie Chosen·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+720–20
4th2:35Stephen Hauschka·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Darr · snap R.Ferguson+320–23
4th1:22Elijah McGuire·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBills
Jets3–5Bills
247Total yards368
4.9Yards per play5.2
38%Success rate39%
50%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays7
14First downs19
0Sacks taken3
2Turnovers3
The read
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Jets: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.02Bills: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Jets: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.01Bills: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Jets: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 50 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Bills’s 71 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Bills 5.
NoteBills outgained Jets 368-247 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 8.3% in week 7.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 13.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bills0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −15.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.73× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 15.9 points below their season mean of 15.9% and 1.7 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
53 dressed · 7 never used
67Brian WintersG · Every snap100%54 snaps
72Brandon ShellT · Every snap100%54 snaps
78Jonotthan HarrisonC · Every snap100%54 snaps
61Spencer LongC · Every snap100%54 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%54 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Full-time94%51 snaps
81Quincy EnunwaWR · Full-time81%44 snaps
89Chris HerndonTE · Heavy rotation76%41 snaps
25Elijah McGuireRB · Heavy rotation74%40 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Heavy rotation70%38 snaps
10Jermaine KearseWR · Heavy rotation52%28 snaps
83Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational39%21 snaps
86Jordan LeggettTE · Rotational35%19 snaps
40Trenton CannonRB · Rotational33%18 snaps
70Dakota DozierG · Situational17%9 snaps
20Isaiah CrowellRB · Situational9%5 snaps
79Brent QvaleT · Situational6%3 snaps
15Josh McCownQB · Situational6%3 snaps
82Rishard MatthewsWR · Situational6%3 snaps
17Charone PeakeWR · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Jeremy ClarkCBDerrick JonesCBBronson KaufusiDEFoley FatukasiDTBen BradenOGDavis WebbQBDeontay BurnettWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−36% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 31 for 5 yards (21-M.Claiborne) [92-L.Williams]. Caught near sideline at NYJ 31.
Q2 0:36 · Bills · 3rd & 16 at NYJ 36 · gained 5 · -1.16 EP · −36.1% win probability
159 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 85 yards from the NYJ 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
613
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0263%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.6259%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.9063%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0871%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.4443%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.2029%
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Jets0Bills6
Jets0Bills7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Jets 6
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Jets 23
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 29
Jets3Bills7
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 29
Jets3Bills13
Jets3Bills14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Bills 44
2nd quarter48 plays
Jets6Bills14
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 1
Jets6Bills17
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Jets 13
Jets12Bills17
Jets13Bills17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 4
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 31
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Jets 30
3rd quarter34 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Jets13Bills20
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 11
Intercepted10 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Bills 33
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 45
The period ended8 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Bills 40
4th quarter50 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw9.8 seconds
Jets19Bills20
Jets20Bills20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 7
No good11 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Jets 36
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 48
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jets20Bills23
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Jets 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSeven linemen, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Jets26Bills23
Jets27Bills23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Bills 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
