2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · New Era Field

New York JetsWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -4.5 upsetO 37 ✓31°FBills closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 27–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:36, NYJ +47% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:36NYJ — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 16BUF 76%

(:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 31 for 5 yards (21-M.Claiborne) [92-L.Williams]. Caught near sideline at NYJ 31.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:36NYJ +47% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 31 for 5 yards (21-M.Claiborne) [92-L.Williams]. Caught near sideline at NYJ 31.
Q4 · 1:22BUF +21% win prob(1:22) 25-E.McGuire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:54BUF +20% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson pushed ob at BUF 5 for 37 yards (27-T.White). Caught along sideline at BUF 5. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q4 · 4:15BUF +16% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 16-R.Foster to NYJ 23 for 38 yards (27-D.Roberts, 30-R.Robinson). Caught near sideline at NYJ 39.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Bills
Offensive plays	50	71
Total yards	247	368 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	38%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	6/12	7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Bills outgained Jets 368–247 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

18/36, 206 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-5.3 expected points added · -11.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

16/24, 170 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.1 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

9 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

8.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Elijah McGuireRB

17 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Robert FosterWR

7/8 for 104 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Robbie ChosenWR

4/7 for 76 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 27	13	77	5:48	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 14	5	14	2:27	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 25	3	4	0:51	Fumble
4	NYJ	BUF 32	4	3	1:20	Turnover on downs
5	BUF	BUF 25	9	42	3:27	Touchdown
6	NYJ	BUF 46	11	43	4:57	Turnover on downs
7	BUF	BUF 29	9	58	3:56	Turnover on downs
8	NYJ	BUF 8	3	4	0:43	Touchdown
9	BUF	BUF 25	3	1	1:44	Interception
10	NYJ	BUF 45	4	4	1:35	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 9	11	48	3:12	Turnover on downs
12	NYJ	—	1	0	0:09	Fumble
13	BUF	NYJ 13	4	2	1:29	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 35	10	32	5:14	Interception
15	BUF	BUF 14	10	31	5:00	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 15	12	85	6:02	Touchdown
17	BUF	BUF 16	10	43	4:17	Turnover on downs
18	NYJ	NYJ 44	4	4	1:33	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 20	9	62	3:45	Turnover on downs
20	NYJ	NYJ 39	10	58	1:14	Touchdown
21	BUF	BUF 22	3	0	0:18	Interception
22	NYJ	BUF 45	2	0	0:59	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/24	170	1	1	0	6.1
Josh McCown	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah McGuire	17	60	3.5	1	0.6
Sam Darnold	4	10	2.5	0	-1.7
Isaiah Crowell	2	5	2.5	0	-0.7
Trenton Cannon	5	3	0.6	1	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robbie Chosen	4	7	76	1	29%	6.4
Elijah McGuire	3	4	23	0	17%	0.6
Quincy Enunwa	3	4	22	0	17%	0.8
Christopher Herndon	1	2	14	0	8%	-1.7
Jordan Leggett	1	2	13	0	8%	0.9
Jermaine Kearse	1	2	10	0	8%	0.6
Rishard Matthews	1	1	6	0	4%	0.1
Trenton Cannon	1	1	4	0	4%	-1.2
Isaiah Crowell	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Neville Hewitt	5	3	0.5	0	0
Morris Claiborne	7	0	0.0	0	0
Buster Skrine	4	1	0.0	0	0
Avery Williamson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Pierre-Louis	3	1	1.0	0	0
Trumaine Johnson	3	1	0.0	2	2
Leonard Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Steve McLendon	1	2	0.0	0	0
Henry Anderson	1	1	0.5	0	0
Rashard Robinson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	18/36	206	0	2	3	-5.3
Zay Jones	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	9	101	11.2	1	8.8
Chris Ivory	12	42	3.5	0	-0.9
Isaiah McKenzie	4	22	5.5	1	1.7
Marcus Murphy	4	10	2.5	0	-0.8
LeSean McCoy	2	1	0.5	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Foster	7	8	104	23%	10.5
Isaiah McKenzie	4	7	47	20%	2.8
Zay Jones	3	9	22	26%	-8.5
Deonte Thompson	1	2	14	6%	0.7
Marcus Murphy	1	1	8	3%	1.4
Charles Clay	1	2	6	6%	-1.0
Logan Thomas	1	2	5	6%	-0.4
Josh Allen	0	1	0	3%	-1.5
Chris Ivory	0	1	0	3%	-0.8
LeSean McCoy	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Patrick DiMarco	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	4	3	1	1
Levi Wallace	4	1	0	1
Jordan Poyer	5	0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	1	0	0
Jerry Hughes	2	1	0	0
Robert Foster	2	0	0	0
Shaq Lawson	1	1	0	2
Rafael Bush	1	1	0	0
Trent Murphy	2	0	0	0
Marcus Murphy	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -4.5
Closing total: 37
NYJ moneyline: +189
BUF moneyline: -211

Bills closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37; the game landed 50 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 31°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: NYJ 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.