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Arizona Cardinals 14 at Atlanta Falcons 40. Final.
Falcons -10 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Atlanta Falcons 40, Cardinals 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:21, 2nd and 11, on Deion Jones — 19.1 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:21 · 2nd and 11
Deion Jones
Falcons
(6:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (44-V.Beasley) at ARI 41. 45-D.Jones for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Falcons closed -10 and covered, winning by 26.
Atlanta Falcons 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:21, Falcons +19.1% win probability on one snap.
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
David JohnsonCardinalsQ1 10:35(10:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 31-D.Johnson ran ob at ATL 12 for 40 yards (27-D.Kazee).
8.5pts
Tevin ColemanFalconsQ1 2:52(2:52) 26-T.Coleman right end to ARI 7 for 65 yards (33-T.Boston).
8.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Falcons at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Cardinals175 of 182 plays carry both curves
(6:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (44-V.Beasley) at ARI 41. 45-D.Jones for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.1 for FalconsExpected points +8.31 for FalconsThe model had Cardinals 28 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:21ARI +19% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (44-V.Beasley) at ARI 41. 45-D.Jones for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:52ATL +9% win prob(2:52) 26-T.Coleman right end to ARI 7 for 65 yards (33-T.Boston).
1st · 10:35ATL +8% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 31-D.Johnson ran ob at ATL 12 for 40 yards (27-D.Kazee).
1st · 12:00ATL +8% win prob(12:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to ARI 30, Center-46-J.Condo. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ATL 44 for 26 yards (28-J.Bethel). PENALTY on ARI-30-R.Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 46.
1st · 7:42ARI +8% win prob(7:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 19 for -6 yards (43-H.Reddick).
1st · 7:09ATL +8% win prob(7:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to ARI 43, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Bryant's 22-yard field goal with 0:41 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th11:20Justin Hardy·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+77–40
4th3:19Trent Sherfield·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Mike Glennonfrom Mike Glennon+714–40
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryFalcons
Cardinals0–8Falcons
254Total yards435
4.0Yards per play6.6
34%Success rate47%
23%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays9
16First downs23
7Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.36Cardinals: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.17Falcons: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.40Cardinals: −0.40 expected points added per play
+0.09Falcons: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Cardinals: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.28Falcons: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Falcons’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Falcons 6.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 20.5%, is past their previous high of 18.2% in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 14 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 37.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Falcons20.5%
leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.5%, 9.0 points above their season mean of 11.5% and 1.8 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Rosen pass−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (44-V.Beasley) at ARI 41. 45-D.Jones for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:21 · Cardinals · 2nd & 11 at ARI 42 · gained nothing · -8.31 EP · −23.5% win probability
173 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 76 yards from the ATL 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
688
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.4374%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2760%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2558%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3844%
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.39100%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 36
Cardinals6Falcons0
Cardinals7Falcons0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Falcons 1
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Cardinals7Falcons6
Touchdown2 plays
Cardinals7Falcons7
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 44
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Cardinals7Falcons10
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Cardinals 3
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 38
2nd quarter53 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 40
Cardinals7Falcons16
Cardinals7Falcons17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays
Cardinals7Falcons20
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Cardinals 14
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 45
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Falcons 20
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Falcons 46
Cardinals7Falcons26
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Cardinals 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 38
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 49
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 36
Cardinals7Falcons32
Cardinals7Falcons33
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Cardinals 40
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Falcons 40
4th quarter44 plays
Cardinals7Falcons39
Cardinals7Falcons40
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Cardinals 5
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 14
Cardinals13Falcons40
Cardinals14Falcons40
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Falcons 7
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 20
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Falcons 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -10
Closing total
43.5
Cardinals moneyline
+332
Falcons moneyline
-382
Falcons closed -10 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 54 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Dan Quinn
2nd · 14:19
ARI +7% win prob
(14:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 33 for -7 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett) [59-D.Campbell], touched at ARI 36, RECOVERED by ATL-34-B.Poole at ARI 34. 34-B.Poole to ARI 34 for no gain (11-L.Fitzgerald).
1st · 9:07ATL +7% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to ATL 2 for 15 yards (59-D.Campbell; 27-D.Kazee).
