2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

Atlanta FalconsWinner

ATL -10 ✓O 43.5 ✓DomeFalcons closed -10 and covered, winning by 26.

Atlanta Falcons 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:21, ARI +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:21ARI — ATL ARI ball · 2nd & 11ATL 55%

(6:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (44-V.Beasley) at ARI 41. 45-D.Jones for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:21ARI +19% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (44-V.Beasley) at ARI 41. 45-D.Jones for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:52ATL +9% win prob(2:52) 26-T.Coleman right end to ARI 7 for 65 yards (33-T.Boston).
Q1 · 10:35ATL +8% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 31-D.Johnson ran ob at ATL 12 for 40 yards (27-D.Kazee).
Q1 · 12:00ATL +8% win prob(12:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to ARI 30, Center-46-J.Condo. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ATL 44 for 26 yards (28-J.Bethel). PENALTY on ARI-30-R.Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 46.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Falcons
Offensive plays	64	66
Total yards	254	435 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.36	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	34%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.28 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	7	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

22/36, 231 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.6 expected points added · -8.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

13/22, 132 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-22.4 expected points added · -15.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

11 att, 145 yds, 1 TD

6.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Ito SmithRB

9 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Larry FitzgeraldWR

7/8 for 82 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

6/8 for 82 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	8	10	3:13	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 36	9	69	3:22	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 25	5	-6	1:24	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 43	2	-1	0:50	Defensive touchdown
5	ARI	ARI 25	8	10	3:19	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 28	5	69	2:15	Turnover on downs
7	ARI	ARI 25	5	11	1:28	Fumble
8	ATL	ARI 34	6	34	1:37	Touchdown
9	ARI	ARI 25	5	0	2:13	Punt
10	ATL	ATL 21	11	65	5:03	Turnover on downs
11	ARI	ARI 25	6	20	1:33	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 11	4	9	1:28	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 39	4	10	1:05	Interception
14	ATL	ATL 29	7	71	0:57	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
16	ARI	ARI 25	6	18	1:52	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 17	7	32	2:27	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 22	5	14	3:09	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 28	5	57	1:53	Touchdown
20	ARI	ARI 25	7	-6	2:53	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 24	13	86	6:32	Touchdown
22	ARI	ARI 25	5	4	2:26	Punt
23	ATL	ATL 13	4	1	1:44	Punt
24	ARI	ARI 36	14	69	3:50	Touchdown
25	ATL	ATL 13	5	7	2:07	Punt
26	ARI	ARI 32	4	36	1:07	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 86 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	13/22	132	0	2	6	-22.4
Mike Glennon	10/14	111	1	0	1	5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	11	33	3.0	1	-2.1
Chase Edmonds	8	22	2.8	0	-2.0
Josh Rosen	2	8	4.0	0	-0.3
T.J. Logan	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Larry Fitzgerald	7	8	82	0	23%	2.6
David Johnson	3	6	68	0	17%	-4.0
Chase Edmonds	2	2	22	0	6%	1.8
Ricky Seals-Jones	3	8	22	0	23%	-1.9
T.J. Logan	4	4	18	0	11%	-3.4
Jermaine Gresham	1	1	16	0	3%	1.0
Trent Sherfield	3	5	15	1	14%	1.9
Jalen Tolliver	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tre Boston	5	2	0.0	2
Antoine Bethea	4	1	0.0	0
Gerald Hodges	5	0	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	4	0	1.0	1
Corey Peters	3	1	0.0	0
Deone Bucannon	2	1	0.0	0
Brandon Williams	3	0	0.0	2
Budda Baker	3	0	0.0	0
Rodney Gunter	2	1	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	0	0.0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	22/36	231	2	0	2	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	11	145	13.2	1	6.7
Ito Smith	9	34	3.8	0	-0.2
Matt Ryan	3	18	6.0	1	2.0
Mohamed Sanu	1	11	11.0	0	0.8
Brian Hill	3	7	2.3	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	6	8	82	1	22%	4.8
Calvin Ridley	5	7	42	0	19%	1.0
Russell Gage	2	4	33	0	11%	1.3
Mohamed Sanu	3	6	30	0	17%	-0.5
Justin Hardy	3	3	29	1	8%	4.2
Marvin Hall	1	3	10	0	8%	-2.0
Ito Smith	2	3	5	0	8%	0.3
Tevin Coleman	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1
Austin Hooper	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Grady Jarrett	4	3	2.0	0	0
Sharrod Neasman	5	1	0.0	0	0
Brian Poole	5	1	1.0	1	1
Damontae Kazee	4	2	0.0	0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	4	1	0.0	0	0
Deion Jones	3	1	0.0	1	2
Jack Crawford	1	3	0.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	0	3	0.5	0	0
Bruce Irvin	1	2	1.5	0	0
Steven Means	1	2	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -10
Closing total: 43.5
ARI moneyline: +332
ATL moneyline: -382

Falcons closed -10 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 54 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: ARI 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Dan Quinn