2018 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 15, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -1 upsetU 47 ✓Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:53, CLE +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:53CLE — DEN CLE ball · 4th & 1CLE 87%

(1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:53CLE +23% win prob(1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
Q3 · 5:54CLE +20% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at DEN 43 for -7 yards (99-A.Gotsis). FUMBLES (99-A.Gotsis) [99-A.Gotsis], RECOVERED by DEN-95-D.Wolfe at DEN 40. 95-D.Wolfe to DEN 40 for no gain (64-J.Tretter).
Q4 · 0:43CLE +19% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at DEN 39 for -11 yards (22-J.Peppers).
Q2 · 1:50CLE +13% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Peppers [65-L.Ogunjobi] at CLE 0. Touchback.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Broncos
Offensive plays	60	68
Total yards	310 (edge)	270
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	-0.09	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	43%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.40
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

31/48, 257 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-0.1 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

18/31, 188 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

20 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

14 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

5/8 for 65 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

DaeSean HamiltonWR

7/12 for 46 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	5	-13	1:48	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 49	5	51	1:23	Touchdown
3	DEN	DEN 25	5	1	0:58	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 36	4	3	0:56	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 12	14	54	6:37	Touchdown
6	CLE	CLE 28	8	22	3:18	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 13	12	61	6:44	Turnover on downs
8	CLE	CLE 25	10	38	3:23	Turnover on downs
9	DEN	DEN 34	8	37	3:12	Interception
10	CLE	CLE 20	4	5	0:24	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 13	4	4	0:30	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 45	4	25	0:29	Interception
13	DEN	DEN 2	1	0	0:18	End of half
14	CLE	CLE 17	16	63	9:11	Fumble
15	DEN	DEN 40	8	31	4:08	Turnover on downs
16	CLE	CLE 25	6	-3	1:52	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 20	1	0	0:08	Interception
18	CLE	DEN 48	7	48	2:57	Touchdown
19	DEN	DEN 25	14	69	7:09	Turnover on downs
20	CLE	CLE 25	8	58	2:46	Turnover on downs
21	DEN	DEN 13	9	26	1:10	Turnover on downs
22	CLE	DEN 39	1	0	0:39	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 69 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	18/31	188	2	1	2	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	20	100	5.0	-3.9
Duke Johnson	4	28	7.0	1.3
Baker Mayfield	4	6	1.5	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	3	8	37	0	26%	-2.1
Antonio Callaway	5	7	35	1	23%	-1.2
Breshad Perriman	1	2	31	1	6%	3.7
Rashard Higgins	2	3	30	0	10%	0.5
David Njoku	3	5	30	0	16%	3.6
Duke Johnson	4	5	25	0	16%	0.7
Nick Chubb	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Joe Schobert	4	3	0.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	6	0	0.0	0	2
Jabrill Peppers	6	0	1.0	1	1
Jamie Collins	6	0	1.0	0	0
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	4	1	0.0	0	0
Genard Avery	4	0	0.0	0	0
Trevon Coley	1	2	0.0	0	0
T.J. Carrie	3	0	0.0	1	1
Damarious Randall	1	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Zettel	1	1	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	31/48	257	0	2	2	-0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	14	24	1.7	0	-5.8
Royce Freeman	4	7	1.8	0	-1.4
Case Keenum	2	1	0.5	1	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	5	8	65	18%	4.3
DaeSean Hamilton	7	12	46	27%	-3.7
Matt LaCosse	4	6	43	13%	3.3
Courtland Sutton	5	6	42	13%	2.0
Phillip Lindsay	4	6	20	13%	-2.1
Brian Parker	2	2	18	4%	0.9
Devontae Booker	2	3	17	7%	0.6
Andre Holmes	1	1	5	2%	0.1
Royce Freeman	1	1	1	2%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Simmons	4	3	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	1	4	0.0	0
Darian Stewart	2	3	0.0	0
Bradley Roby	3	1	0.0	1
Todd Davis	1	3	0.0	0
Domata Peko	1	3	0.0	0
Adam Gotsis	3	1	1.0	1
Bradley Chubb	2	2	0.0	0
Brandon Marshall	1	3	0.0	0
Will Parks	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1
Closing total: 47
CLE moneyline: +116
DEN moneyline: -128

Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 33 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CLE 6 days · DEN 6 days
Coaches: Gregg Williams vs Vance Joseph