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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 15, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Final
BrownsCleveland17
BY 1final margin
BroncosDenver16
Cleveland Browns 17 at Denver Broncos 16. Final.
Broncos -1 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Cleveland Browns 17, Broncos 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:53, 4th and 1, on Nick Chubb — 22.7 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:53 · 4th and 1
Nick Chubb
Broncos
(1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
U 47 ✓
Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:53, Broncos +22.7% win probability on one snap.
22.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Baker MayfieldBroncosQ3 5:54(5:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at DEN 43 for -7 yards (99-A.Gotsis). FUMBLES (99-A.Gotsis) [99-A.Gotsis], RECOVERED by DEN-95-D.Wolfe at DEN 40. 95-D.Wolfe to DEN 40 for no gain (64-J.Tretter).
19.7pts
Case KeenumBrownsQ4 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at DEN 39 for -11 yards (22-J.Peppers).
19.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Browns won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Broncos at 2 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Browns won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Broncos at 5 of 14 on third down.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Browns166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
Swing +22.7 for BroncosExpected points +2.98 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 2 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:53CLE +23% win prob(1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
3rd · 5:54CLE +20% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at DEN 43 for -7 yards (99-A.Gotsis). FUMBLES (99-A.Gotsis) [99-A.Gotsis], RECOVERED by DEN-95-D.Wolfe at DEN 40. 95-D.Wolfe to DEN 40 for no gain (64-J.Tretter).
4th · 0:43CLE +19% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at DEN 39 for -11 yards (22-J.Peppers).
2nd · 1:50CLE +13% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Peppers [65-L.Ogunjobi] at CLE 0. Touchback.
4th · 1:12DEN +13% win prob(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 23-D.Booker to 50 for 15 yards (55-G.Avery).
4th · 14:49CLE +12% win prob(14:49) 4-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 17-D.Hamilton INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Carrie at DEN 48. 38-T.Carrie to DEN 48 for no gain (17-D.Hamilton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Antonio Callaway's 2-yard touchdown catch with 11:49 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th4:39Brandon McManus·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+317–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryBroncos
Browns4–2Broncos
310Total yards270
5.2Yards per play4.0
43%Success rate44%
42%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays2
18First downs20
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Browns: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Browns: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Browns: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.40Broncos: −0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 60 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Broncos’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Broncos 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, +9.2 pts, is past their previous high of +4.8 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 14.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 14 against 8.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Broncos8.8%
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.2 pts, 11.9 points above their season mean of -2.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Chubb right−28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
Q4 1:53 · Browns · 4th & 1 at DEN 10 · lost 2 · -2.98 EP · −28.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 94 yards from the DEN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
579
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0182%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0873%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.5845%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1236%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.5411%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0550%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Browns6Broncos0
Browns7Broncos0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Broncos 31
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 39
Browns7Broncos6
Browns7Broncos7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Browns 1
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 28 to midfield
2nd quarter51 plays
Browns7Broncos10
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Browns 26
Browns10Broncos10
Field goal13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Broncos 22
Intercepted8 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Browns 29
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 25
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Broncos 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost18 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Broncos 36
Browns10Broncos13
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Browns 21
The period ended7 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Browns16Broncos13
Browns17Broncos13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Broncos 2
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Browns17Broncos16
Field goal15 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Browns 6
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxTen defenders
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Broncos 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Broncos 13 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -1
Closing total
47
Browns moneyline
+116
Broncos moneyline
-128
Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 33 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 38°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Browns 6 days · Broncos 6 days
Coaches
Gregg Williams vs Vance Joseph
1st · 4:50DEN +11% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton (39-T.Mitchell). PENALTY on CLE-39-T.Mitchell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at CLE 28 - No Play.
4th · 8:30DEN +10% win prob(8:30) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton to CLE 25 for 14 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
