2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -3 ✓U 47 ✓DomeColts closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.

Indianapolis Colts 23–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:02, DAL +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:02DAL — IND DAL ball · 4th & 4IND 58%

(10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runne

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:02DAL +9% win prob(10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard to DAL 44 for no gain (86-D.Schultz).
Q2 · 3:48IND +7% win prob(3:48) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 38 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore II).
Q2 · 2:27DAL +6% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at IND 47 for -10 yards (94-T.Lewis).
Q1 · 10:47DAL +5% win prob(10:47) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to IND 30 for -3 yards (53-D.Leonard, 92-M.Hunt).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Colts
Offensive plays	64	62
Total yards	292	373 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.16	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	66%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	4/12	8/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

24/39, 206 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.7 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

16/27, 192 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

27 att, 139 yds, 2 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

18 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

5/8 for 85 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Blake JarwinTE

4/7 for 45 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	11	45	5:05	Turnover on downs
2	IND	DAL 44	9	44	3:46	Touchdown
3	DAL	DAL 25	16	70	7:00	Turnover on downs
4	IND	IND 5	12	62	5:03	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 9	15	64	7:13	Punt
6	IND	IND 16	11	64	1:53	Turnover on downs
7	IND	IND 25	10	75	3:37	Touchdown
8	DAL	DAL 25	9	34	3:38	Punt
9	IND	IND 11	10	63	6:09	Turnover on downs
10	DAL	DAL 30	7	26	1:40	Turnover on downs
11	IND	IND 40	12	45	7:59	Turnover on downs
12	DAL	DAL 25	9	44	2:41	Turnover on downs
13	IND	IND 41	2	-6	0:12	Fumble
14	DAL	IND 35	5	9	0:55	Interception
15	IND	IND 22	7	26	3:09	End of game

0 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	24/39	206	0	1	3	-11.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	18	87	4.8	0.6
Rod Smith	3	14	4.7	0.4
Amari Cooper	1	11	11.0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Blake Jarwin	4	7	45	18%	-1.2
Cole Beasley	4	7	42	18%	-1.7
Ezekiel Elliott	7	8	41	21%	2.4
Amari Cooper	4	7	32	18%	-2.2
Dalton Schultz	3	4	23	11%	1.2
Noah Brown	1	2	14	5%	0.4
Allen Hurns	1	2	9	5%	-3.2
Jamize Olawale	0	1	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jaylon Smith	9	1	0
Jeff Heath	7	2	0
Leighton Vander Esch	7	1	0
Xavier Woods	3	2	1
Byron Jones	2	2	1
Demarcus Lawrence	1	2	0
Damien Wilson	3	0	0
Anthony Brown	3	0	0
Tyrone Crawford	2	1	0
Chidobe Awuzie	1	1	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	16/27	192	0	0	0	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marlon Mack	27	139	5.1	2	-1.6
Andrew Luck	6	20	3.3	0	1.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	6	19	3.2	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	5	8	85	31%	5.0
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	6	45	23%	2.0
Ryan Grant	2	2	16	8%	1.1
Zach Pascal	1	3	12	12%	-1.4
Marlon Mack	1	1	10	4%	0.6
Chester Rogers	1	1	10	4%	0.0
Eric Ebron	1	3	8	12%	0.3
Jordan Wilkins	1	1	6	4%	-0.2
Dontrelle Inman	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	8	2	0.0	0	2
Clayton Geathers	5	2	0.0	0	0
Anthony Walker	5	1	0.0	0	0
Pierre Desir	6	0	0.0	0	1
George Odum	5	0	0.0	1	1
Kenny Moore	4	0	0.0	0	0
Quincy Wilson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	2	1	2.0	0	0
Jabaal Sheard	1	1	0.0	0	0
Ryan Kelly	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3
Closing total: 47
DAL moneyline: +155
IND moneyline: -172

Colts closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 47; the game landed 23 — under by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: DAL 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Jason Garrett vs Frank Reich