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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas0
BY 23final margin
ColtsIndianapolis23
Dallas Cowboys 0 at Indianapolis Colts 23. Final.
Colts -3 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Indianapolis Colts 23, Cowboys 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:02, 4th and 4, on Brett Maher — 8.8 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:02 · 4th and 4
Brett Maher
Colts
(10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard to DAL 44 for no gain (86-D.Schultz).
Dome
Colts closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.
Indianapolis Colts 23–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:02, Colts +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ezekiel ElliottCowboysQ2 3:48(3:48) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 38 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore II).
6.6pts
Dak PrescottColtsQ2 2:27(2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at IND 47 for -10 yards (94-T.Lewis).
6.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Colts won this one — 8 of 11 on third down, against Cowboys at 4 of 12 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
(10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runne
Swing +8.8 for ColtsExpected points +5.18 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:02DAL +9% win prob(10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard to DAL 44 for no gain (86-D.Schultz).
2nd · 3:48IND +7% win prob(3:48) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 38 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore II).
2nd · 2:27DAL +6% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at IND 47 for -10 yards (94-T.Lewis).
1st · 10:47DAL +5% win prob(10:47) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to IND 30 for -3 yards (53-D.Leonard, 92-M.Hunt).
2nd · 9:18IND +5% win prob(9:18) 2-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to DAL 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 19 for 3 yards (50-A.Walker). PENALTY on DAL-85-N.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18.
2nd · 14:20
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marlon Mack's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:13 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:13Marlon Mack·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd0:02Adam Vinatieri·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–10
3rd1:41Adam Vinatieri·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–20
4th7:01Adam Vinatieri·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–23
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryColts
Cowboys1–7Colts
292Total yards373
4.6Yards per play6.0
47%Success rate47%
33%Third-down rate73%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays8
18First downs22
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Colts ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Cowboys: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.08Colts: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Cowboys: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.27Colts: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Cowboys: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 64 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Colts’s 62 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 2, Colts 3.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 6 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 15.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.0 points.
IND's pass rate over expected turned over: +15.2 pts in week 14 against −2.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Colts11.9%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 44.6 points above their season mean of 30.4% and 1.7 times their own 26.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 8 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%69 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time88%61 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time80%55 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
61Adam RedmondC · Heavy rotation65%45 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation64%44 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Heavy rotation62%43 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational45%31 snaps
76Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Rotational35%24 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Rotational32%22 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational19%13 snaps
80Rico GathersTE · Situational14%10 snaps
45Rod SmithRB · Situational9%6 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational7%5 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
David IrvingDETaco CharltonDEZack MartinGChris CovingtonLBMike WhiteQBCooper RushQBGeoff SwaimTETavon AustinWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brett Maher−9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard to DAL 44 for no gain (86-D.Schultz).
Q1 10:02 · Cowboys · 4th & 4 at IND 30 · gained nothing · -5.18 EP · −9.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0968%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.4357%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.3118%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
No good11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Colts 27
Cowboys0Colts6
Cowboys0Colts7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Colts 12
2nd quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Colts 3
Punt14 plays, from the Colts 5 to the Cowboys 48
Punt16 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Colts 37
Cowboys0Colts10
Field goal16 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Cowboys 23
3rd quarter39 plays
Cowboys0Colts16
Cowboys0Colts17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Cowboys 6
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Colts 41
Cowboys0Colts20
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Cowboys 26
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Colts 47
4th quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Cowboys0Colts23
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Cowboys 5
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Colts 46
Fumble lost3 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 18
The period ended10 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
