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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Lions151 of 159 plays carry both curves
(:04) (Shotgun) 35-K.Ford up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
Swing +46.1 for BillsExpected points +0.75 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 77
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:04BUF +46% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 35-K.Ford up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
4th · 10:35BUF +26% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-R.Foster for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at DET 12.
4th · 5:55DET +22% win prob(5:55) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
3rd · 3:29DET +14% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to DET 12 for 1 yard (91-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (91-A.Robinson), recovered by BUF-72-R.Groy at DET 13.
2nd · 5:31BUF +14% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay to BUF 10 for 40 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught along sideline, in coverage, at BUF 15.
4th · 8:25BUF +12% win prob(8:25) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-K.Golladay to BUF 35 for 20 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught at BUF 39, crossing from right.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robert Foster's 42-yard touchdown catch with 10:35 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd10:50Andy Jones·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point no good+66–0
Lions ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Lions: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.01Bills: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.04Bills: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Lions: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 56 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Bills’s 62 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Lions 2, Bills 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
DET's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 15.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.6 points.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 14 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Bills13.3%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 43.3 points above their season mean of 23.3% and 1.5 times their own 29.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
53 dressed · 9 never used
65Tyrell CrosbyT · Every snap100%57 snaps
79Kenny WigginsG · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%57 snaps
60Graham GlasgowC · Every snap100%57 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%57 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
19Kenny GolladayWR · Full-time91%52 snaps
17Andy JonesWR · Heavy rotation79%45 snaps
87Levine ToiloloTE · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
13T.J. JonesWR · Heavy rotation63%36 snaps
34Zach ZennerRB · Rotational46%26 snaps
25Theo RiddickRB · Rotational44%25 snaps
82Luke WillsonTE · Rotational42%24 snaps
10Brandon PowellWR · Situational21%12 snaps
29LeGarrette BlountRB · Situational19%11 snaps
66Joe DahlG · Situational18%10 snaps
86Jerome CunninghamTE · Situational7%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Leo KoloamatangiCMarcus CooperCBDa'Shawn HandDENick BelloreFBCharles WashingtonFSMatt CasselQBKerryon JohnsonRBRick WagnerTBruce EllingtonWR
Buffalo Bills
53 dressed · 8 never used
79Jordan MillsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Ryan GroyG · Every snap100%68 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
75Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%68 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
11Zay JonesWR · Full-time97%66 snaps
76John MillerG · Full-time87%59 snaps
16Robert FosterWR · Full-time84%57 snaps
85Charles ClayTE · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
35Keith FordRB · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
80Jason CroomTE · Rotational47%32 snaps
45Marcus MurphyRB · Rotational28%19 snaps
10Deonte ThompsonWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational22%15 snaps
74Jeremiah SirlesT · Situational13%9 snaps
65Ike BoettgerT · Situational13%9 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational12%8 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Ryan LewisCBDean MarloweDBVladimir DucasseGMatt BarkleyQBDerek AndersonQBLeSean McCoyRBChris IvoryRBLogan ThomasTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Ford up+49% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:04) (Shotgun) 35-K.Ford up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
Q2 0:04 · Bills · 3rd & 8 at BUF 25 · gained 5 · +0.75 EP · +49.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 87 yards from the BUF 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
38%
Yards
625
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0353%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0968%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1417%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2917%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.100%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.4620%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Punt14 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Lions 27
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 20 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 36
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Lions6Bills0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Bills 3
Lions6Bills6
Lions6Bills7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 13 to the Lions 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Lions12Bills7
Lions13Bills7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Bills 1
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 44
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsIn the boxThree defenders
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 13 to the Bills 25
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bills 49
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 13 to the Lions 48
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFive
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Lions 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 44
4th quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Lions13Bills13
Lions13Bills14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Lions 37
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bills 30
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 40
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 33
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxTen defenders
The period ended14 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Lions 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -2.5
Closing total
40
Lions moneyline
+132
Bills moneyline
-146
Bills closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40; the game landed 27 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 36°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north-east; 0.04 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Lions 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Matt Patricia vs Sean McDermott
4th · 1:50BUF +12% win prob(1:50) 17-J.Allen up the middle to DET 39 for 2 yards (97-R.Jean Francois).
3rd · 5:40BUF +11% win prob(5:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 16-R.Foster pushed ob at DET 21 for 31 yards (24-N.Lawson). Caught near sideline at DET 25. Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
