2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · New Era Field

Detroit Lions

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -2.5 no coverU 40 ✓Bills closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 14–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:04, BUF +46% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:04DET — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 8DET 75%

(:04) (Shotgun) 35-K.Ford up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:04BUF +46% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 35-K.Ford up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
Q4 · 10:35BUF +26% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-R.Foster for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at DET 12.
Q4 · 5:55DET +22% win prob(5:55) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q3 · 3:29DET +14% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to DET 12 for 1 yard (91-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (91-A.Robinson), recovered by BUF-72-R.Groy at DET 13.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Bills
Offensive plays	56	62
Total yards	313	314 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	43% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	54%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	15	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0	0

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

22/29, 208 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.1 expected points added · +11.4% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

13/26, 204 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.6 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Theo RiddickRB

8 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Keith FordRB

14 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

7/8 for 146 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Robert FosterWR

4/5 for 108 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 19	14	45	7:41	Punt
2	DET	DET 20	6	30	3:24	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 14	7	22	3:44	Punt
4	DET	DET 25	10	70	4:26	Touchdown
5	BUF	BUF 13	7	44	2:50	Touchdown
6	DET	DET 23	11	77	4:09	Touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 25	6	19	1:25	Punt
8	DET	DET 18	5	19	1:24	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 13	4	17	0:57	End of half
10	DET	DET 25	7	26	1:55	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 13	10	39	4:58	Punt
12	DET	DET 10	4	9	1:10	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 36	8	51	3:38	Turnover on downs
14	DET	DET 13	8	32	4:17	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 20	4	0	0:37	Punt
16	DET	DET 18	4	2	1:42	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 39	3	43	1:17	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	9	45	4:36	Turnover on downs
19	BUF	BUF 38	4	2	1:09	Punt
20	DET	DET 30	4	3	1:51	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 24	8	32	2:50	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	22/29	208	1	0	0	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Theo Riddick	8	47	5.9	0	0.8
Zach Zenner	10	45	4.5	1	3.0
LeGarrette Blount	7	9	1.3	0	-3.2
Brandon Powell	1	4	4.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	7	8	146	0	29%	12.0
Levine Toilolo	4	4	28	0	14%	0.5
Brandon Powell	3	3	11	0	11%	-1.1
Theo Riddick	2	3	9	0	11%	-2.7
Andy Jones	2	2	9	1	7%	2.6
T.J. Jones	1	3	5	0	11%	-3.1
Zach Zenner	3	4	0	0	14%	-2.9
LeGarrette Blount	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jarrad Davis	5	3	0.0	0
Christian Jones	2	4	0.0	0
Damon Harrison	4	1	0.0	0
Nevin Lawson	4	0	0.0	1
Devon Kennard	2	2	1.0	0
Quandre Diggs	3	1	0.0	0
Romeo Okwara	3	1	0.0	0
Ricky Jean Francois	2	2	0.0	0
Glover Quin	3	1	0.0	1
A'Shawn Robinson	2	1	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	13/26	204	1	0	1	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Keith Ford	14	46	3.3	0	-2.1
Marcus Murphy	11	35	3.2	0	-1.8
Josh Allen	9	16	1.8	1	-2.4
Patrick DiMarco	1	9	9.0	0	1.2
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Isaiah McKenzie	1	4	4.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Foster	4	5	108	1	22%	8.4
Isaiah McKenzie	6	7	53	0	30%	2.5
Jason Croom	1	1	25	0	4%	1.5
Zay Jones	1	6	11	0	26%	-4.6
Keith Ford	1	1	7	0	4%	0.4
Charles Clay	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7
Deonte Thompson	0	2	0	0	9%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jordan Poyer	7	1	0
Tre'Davious White	5	1	0
Levi Wallace	3	3	0
Tremaine Edmunds	2	3	0
Corey Thompson	3	1	0
Lorenzo Alexander	3	1	1
Shaq Lawson	1	2	1
Micah Hyde	3	0	0
Rafael Bush	3	0	0
Harrison Phillips	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -2.5
Closing total: 40
DET moneyline: +132
BUF moneyline: -146

Bills closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40; the game landed 27 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: DET 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Sean McDermott