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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 24, Packers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:23, 3rd and 1 — 14.8 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:23 · 3rd and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Packers
(14:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 29-T.Cohen. 29-T.Cohen FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 26, RECOVERED by GB-94-D.Lowry at GB 26. 94-D.Lowry to GB 26 for no gain (72-C.Leno Jr).
Bears closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.
Chicago Bears 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 14:23, Packers +14.8% win probability on one snap.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jamaal WilliamsPackersQ3 4:15(4:15) 30-J.Williams right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.7pts
Trey BurtonBearsQ4 10:21(10:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Burton for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.00 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — -0.17 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Bears at 4 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Packers162 of 175 plays carry both curves
(14:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 29-T.Cohen. 29-T.Cohen FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 26, RECOVERED by GB-94-D.Lowry at GB 26. 94-D.Lowry to GB 26 for no gain (72-C.Leno Jr).
Swing −14.8 for BearsExpected points −5.32 for BearsThe model had Packers 5 points higher than the market did.play 122
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:23GB +15% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 29-T.Cohen. 29-T.Cohen FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 26, RECOVERED by GB-94-D.Lowry at GB 26. 94-D.Lowry to GB 26 for no gain (72-C.Leno Jr).
4th · 10:21CHI +14% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Burton for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:15CHI +11% win prob(4:15) 30-J.Williams right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:14GB +8% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 80-J.Graham INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson (58-R.Smith) at CHI -5. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 8 for 13 yards (65-L.Taylor). CHI-39-E.Jackson was injured during the play.
3rd · 4:01CHI +8% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles right end pushed ob at CHI 39 for 14 yards (27-J.Jones).
3rd · 6:30GB +8% win prob(6:30) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 30-B.Cunningham. 30-B.Cunningham up the middle to 50 for -1 yards (98-F.Brown; 16-J.Kumerow).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Trey Burton's 13-yard touchdown catch with 10:21 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th6:46Cody Parkey·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+314–24
4th0:15Mason Crosby·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+317–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryBears
Packers3–5Bears
325Total yards333
4.9Yards per play5.8
42%Success rate47%
36%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays4
20First downs17
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Packers: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.03Bears: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.00Packers: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.47Bears: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Packers: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.50Bears: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 67 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Bears’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Bears 4.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 7.9% in week 9.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bears15.7%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.2%, 9.0 points below their season mean of 12.2% and 1.6 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
53 dressed · 8 never used
69David BakhtiariT · Every snap100%68 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%68 snaps
78Jason SpriggsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
65Lane TaylorG · Every snap100%68 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time94%64 snaps
30Jamaal WilliamsRB · Full-time87%59 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
80Jimmy GrahamTE · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation62%42 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass+15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Burton for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:21 · Bears · 2nd & 8 at GB 13 · gained 13 · +2.53 EP · +15.0% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 66 yards from the GB 25 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
657
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.0574%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.2458%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.0362%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2650%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2071%
Bears3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR5-0.6220%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Packers 47
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Packers 25
Packers0Bears6
Packers0Bears7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Packers 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 39
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 9 to the Bears 17
Packers3Bears7
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Bears 19
Punt12 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Packers 40
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 2 to the Packers 11
Packers3Bears13
Packers3Bears14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Packers 12
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 48
3rd quarter36 plays
Packers6Bears14
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 25
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Packers 49
Packers12Bears14
Packers14Bears14
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Bears 10
The period ended11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 32
4th quarter55 plays
Offense on the fieldThree backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 23
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Packers14Bears20
Packers14Bears21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Packers 13
Punt5 plays
Packers14Bears24
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 6
Intercepted10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 9
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 8 to the Bears 12
Packers17Bears24
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 41 to the Bears 9
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by categoryBears
Packers0
Bears6
