2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · Soldier Field

Green Bay Packers

Chicago BearsWinner

CHI -6 ✓U 46.5 ✓Bears closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.

Chicago Bears 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 14:23, GB +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:23GB — CHI CHI ball · 3rd & 1CHI 72%

(14:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 29-T.Cohen. 29-T.Cohen FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 26, RECOVERED by GB-94-D.Lowry at GB 26. 94-D.Lowry to GB 26 for no gain (72-C.Leno Jr).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:23GB +15% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 29-T.Cohen. 29-T.Cohen FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 26, RECOVERED by GB-94-D.Lowry at GB 26. 94-D.Lowry to GB 26 for no gain (72-C.Leno Jr).
Q4 · 10:21CHI +14% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Burton for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:15CHI +11% win prob(4:15) 30-J.Williams right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:14GB +8% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 80-J.Graham INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson (58-R.Smith) at CHI -5. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 8 for 13 yards (65-L.Taylor). CHI-39-E.Jackson was injured during the play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Bears
Offensive plays	67	57
Total yards	325	333 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	42%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00	0.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.50
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

25/42, 274 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.2 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

20/28, 235 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.7 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

19 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

12 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

8/13 for 119 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

3/7 for 54 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 23	7	34	2:17	Punt
2	GB	GB 4	7	15	4:14	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 40	10	60	6:21	Touchdown
4	GB	GB 25	8	28	3:07	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 9	4	8	1:32	Punt
6	GB	GB 39	9	43	5:02	Turnover on downs
7	CHI	CHI 21	10	49	5:10	Punt
8	GB	GB 2	4	9	0:35	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 39	6	61	1:12	Touchdown
10	GB	GB 25	5	27	0:30	End of half
11	GB	GB 25	12	50	5:34	Turnover on downs
12	CHI	CHI 30	7	20	3:01	Turnover on downs
13	GB	50	6	52	2:15	Touchdown
14	CHI	CHI 25	11	52	4:52	Fumble
15	GB	GB 26	4	-2	1:06	Punt
16	CHI	GB 45	6	32	2:56	Touchdown
17	GB	GB 25	5	-5	1:04	Punt
18	CHI	GB 15	4	9	2:29	Turnover on downs
19	GB	GB 25	10	66	3:39	Interception
20	CHI	CHI 8	4	8	0:22	Punt
21	GB	GB 41	10	42	2:31	Turnover on downs
22	CHI	GB 39	2	0	0:11	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 66 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	25/42	274	0	1	5	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jamaal Williams	12	55	4.6	1	-1.2
Aaron Rodgers	3	25	8.3	0	1.0
Aaron Jones	4	8	2.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	8	13	119	33%	9.6
Jamaal Williams	4	5	42	13%	1.8
Jimmy Graham	3	4	32	10%	-0.9
Randall Cobb	3	7	30	18%	0.1
Lance Kendricks	4	4	27	10%	1.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	2	12	5%	-1.2
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	3	7	8%	-1.2
Jake Kumerow	1	2	5	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Martinez	4	3	0.0	0
Josh Jones	4	2	0.0	1
Tyler Lancaster	5	1	0.0	0
Josh Jackson	3	2	0.0	0
Kyler Fackrell	2	2	0.5	0
Tramon Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Fadol Brown	2	1	0.0	0
Montravius Adams	2	1	0.5	0
Tony Brown	3	0	0.0	0
Jaire Alexander	3	0	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	20/28	235	2	0	1	12.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	19	60	3.2	1	-2.7
Tarik Cohen	5	24	4.8	0	-5.7
Mitchell Trubisky	3	16	5.3	0	0.6
Taquan Mizzell	1	1	1.0	0	-1.6
Benny Cunningham	1	-1	-1.0	0	-3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	3	7	54	0	25%	0.5
Adam Shaheen	2	2	39	0	7%	3.9
Trey Burton	4	7	36	1	25%	2.0
Taylor Gabriel	3	3	33	0	11%	3.6
Tarik Cohen	5	6	31	1	21%	0.6
Josh Bellamy	1	1	18	0	4%	1.5
Jordan Howard	1	1	15	0	4%	0.9
Taquan Mizzell	1	1	9	0	4%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	7	3	0.0	0	2
Leonard Floyd	6	0	2.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	5	1	0.0	1	2
Khalil Mack	5	1	2.5	0	0
Adrian Amos	4	1	0.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	3	1	0.0	0	0
Prince Amukamara	4	0	0.0	0	1
Akiem Hicks	1	2	0.0	0	1
Sherrick McManis	2	0	0.0	0	2
Kyle Fuller	2	0	0.0	0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -6
Closing total: 46.5
GB moneyline: +221
CHI moneyline: -248

Bears closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 41 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: GB 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Joe Philbin vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.