2018 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 15, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

New York Jets

HOU -7 pushO 44 ✓Texans closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Houston Texans 29–22. Biggest swing: Q4 6:18, NYJ +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:18HOU — NYJ NYJ ball · 3rd & 10HOU 66%

(6:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end pushed ob at HOU 5 for 14 yards (22-A.Colvin). PENALTY on HOU-22-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 5.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:18NYJ +17% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end pushed ob at HOU 5 for 14 yards (22-A.Colvin). PENALTY on HOU-22-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 5.
Q3 · 8:44NYJ +13% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 19-A.Roberts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:47NYJ +11% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to HOU 19 for 6 yards (24-J.Joseph).
Q4 · 3:43NYJ +11% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 87-De.Thomas to NYJ 24 for 20 yards (41-B.Skrine) [50-F.Luvu].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Jets
Offensive plays	50	72
Total yards	287	318 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	40% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	70%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28 (edge)	-0.47
Third downs	1/9	9/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	13	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Jets outgained Texans 318–287 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

22/28, 294 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · +23.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

24/38, 253 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.6 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Elijah McGuireRB

18 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

-9.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

6 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

10/11 for 170 yds, 2 TD

42% of team targets · 15.8 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Robbie ChosenWR

7/11 for 96 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-12	2:06	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 41	8	37	3:31	Turnover on downs
3	NYJ	NYJ 25	14	52	7:22	Turnover on downs
4	HOU	HOU 26	11	55	4:10	Turnover on downs
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	40	3:57	Fumble
6	HOU	NYJ 46	3	46	0:40	Touchdown
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	5	1:34	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 31	5	34	2:05	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 17	11	88	4:05	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 25	3	-9	0:30	End of half
11	HOU	HOU 25	5	-5	2:11	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 40	9	60	4:10	Touchdown
13	HOU	HOU 25	5	0	2:05	Punt
14	NYJ	NYJ 36	4	7	1:15	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 17	4	3	1:55	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 44	4	-1	1:56	Punt
17	HOU	HOU 12	8	57	3:55	Turnover on downs
18	NYJ	NYJ 27	17	75	7:33	Touchdown
19	HOU	HOU 25	9	70	2:45	Touchdown
20	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-4	0:23	Turnover on downs
21	HOU	NYJ 21	4	-1	0:58	Turnover on downs
22	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	8	0:43	Turnover on downs
23	HOU	NYJ 33	1	0	0:11	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 88 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	22/28	294	2	0	6	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Deshaun Watson	4	26	6.5	-0.7
Lamar Miller	3	8	2.7	-0.9
DeAndre Carter	1	7	7.0	0.1
Alfred Blue	9	6	0.7	-4.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	10	11	170	2	42%	15.8
Demaryius Thomas	6	8	59	0	31%	-0.3
DeAndre Carter	2	3	55	0	12%	3.7
Alfred Blue	2	2	9	0	8%	-0.4
Jordan Thomas	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.2
Ryan Griffin	1	1	-1	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Benardrick McKinney	3	6	0.0	2
Johnathan Joseph	7	2	0.0	1
Zach Cunningham	2	5	0.0	0
Justin Reid	5	1	0.0	0
J.J. Watt	4	2	2.0	0
D.J. Reader	1	4	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	1	0.0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	1	3	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	1	1.0	0
Angelo Blackson	2	1	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	24/38	253	2	0	3	5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah McGuire	18	42	2.3	1	-9.9
Sam Darnold	6	35	5.8	0	4.4
Trenton Cannon	7	13	1.9	0	-2.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robbie Chosen	7	11	96	1	31%	7.8
Christopher Herndon	3	4	53	0	11%	3.8
Elijah McGuire	3	4	29	0	11%	-1.6
Trenton Cannon	3	4	24	0	11%	0.6
Andre Roberts	3	4	16	1	11%	-0.1
Eric Tomlinson	1	1	11	0	3%	0.1
Jermaine Kearse	2	5	9	0	14%	-2.7
Jordan Leggett	1	1	8	0	3%	0.4
Rishard Matthews	1	1	7	0	3%	1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Trumaine Johnson	5	0	0.0	0
Avery Williamson	2	2	0.0	0
Neville Hewitt	2	2	0.0	0
Henry Anderson	3	1	3.0	0
Jamal Adams	3	1	1.0	0
Steve McLendon	3	1	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	1	2	0.0	0
Buster Skrine	3	0	0.0	0
Morris Claiborne	3	0	0.0	1
Brandon Copeland	1	2	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -7
Closing total: 44
HOU moneyline: -286
NYJ moneyline: +253

Texans closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 44; the game landed 51 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: HOU 6 days · NYJ 6 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Todd Bowles