For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Houston Texans 29, Jets 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:18, 3rd and 10, on Sam Darnold — 17.5 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:18 · 3rd and 10
Sam Darnold
Jets
(6:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end pushed ob at HOU 5 for 14 yards (22-A.Colvin). PENALTY on HOU-22-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 5.
Texans closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Houston Texans 29–22. Biggest swing: Q4 6:18, Jets +17.5% win probability on one snap.
17.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Andre RobertsJetsQ3 8:44(8:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 19-A.Roberts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.4pts
Robbie ChosenJetsQ4 7:47(7:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to HOU 19 for 6 yards (24-J.Joseph).
10.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 17 on third down, against Texans at 1 of 9 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.28 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.47 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Texans166 of 178 plays carry both curves
(6:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end pushed ob at HOU 5 for 14 yards (22-A.Colvin). PENALTY on HOU-22-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 5.
Swing +17.5 for JetsExpected points +2.81 for JetsThe model had Jets 17 points higher than the market did.play 146
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:18NYJ +17% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end pushed ob at HOU 5 for 14 yards (22-A.Colvin). PENALTY on HOU-22-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 5.
3rd · 8:44NYJ +13% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 19-A.Roberts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:47NYJ +11% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to HOU 19 for 6 yards (24-J.Joseph).
4th · 3:43NYJ +11% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 87-De.Thomas to NYJ 24 for 20 yards (41-B.Skrine) [50-F.Luvu].
4th · 5:09NYJ +11% win prob(5:09) 70-D.Dozier reported in as eligible. 25-E.McGuire up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-55-B.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 3:49NYJ +10% win prob(3:49) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins. PENALTY on NYJ-21-M.Claiborne, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 49 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeAndre Hopkins's 14-yard touchdown catch with 2:20 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:27Ka'imi Fairbairn·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+33–0
1st2:04Jason Myers·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+33–3
2nd12:54Ka'imi Fairbairn·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+36–3
4th0:57Ka'imi Fairbairn·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+329–22
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryJets
Texans4–5Jets
287Total yards318
5.7Yards per play4.4
40%Success rate39%
11%Third-down rate53%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
13First downs18
6Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Jets ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Texans: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.04Jets: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Texans: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.22Jets: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Texans: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.47Jets: −0.47 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 50 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Jets’s 72 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Jets 4.
NoteJets outgained Texans 318-287 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 31.4%, is past their previous high of 25.9% in week 2 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, +10.5 pts, is past their previous high of +3.3 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jets31.4%
off script — got home · +13.9 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.4%, 13.9 points above their season mean of 17.5% and 2.0 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 89-C.Herndon to HOU 34 for 25 yards (51-D.Cole). HOU-51-D.Cole was injured during the play.
Q4 9:53 · Jets · 3rd & 8 at NYJ 41 · gained 25 · +2.55 EP · +15.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 83 yards from the NYJ 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
38%
Yards
604
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1272%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.0662%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2274%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4344%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.2263%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0629%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2114%
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Texans3Jets0
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Jets 9
Texans3Jets3
Field goal18 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Texans 8
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Jets 29
2nd quarter46 plays
Texans6Jets3
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 14
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Texans 49
Texans12Jets3
Texans13Jets3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Jets 45
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 30
Texans16Jets3
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Jets 35
Texans16Jets9
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Texans 5
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Texans16Jets15
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Texans 13
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 43
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Texans 21
Punt5 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Jets 37
4th quarter54 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Texans19Jets15
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Texans19Jets21
Texans19Jets22
Touchdown20 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Texans 2
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Texans25Jets22
Texans26Jets22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jets 14
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 28
Texans29Jets22
Field goal7 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
