2018 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 13, 2018 · Arrowhead Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -3.5 upsetO 54 ✓Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Chargers 29–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, KC +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04LAC — KC LAC ballKC 63%

(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-P.Rivers pass to 81-M.Williams is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04KC +32% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-P.Rivers pass to 81-M.Williams is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q4 · 0:04LAC +31% win prob4-M.Badgley kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to KC 7. 39-Tr. Smith to KC 16 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-17-C.Conley at KC 16. 17-C.Conley pushed ob at KC 17 for 1 yard (23-R.Jenkins).
Q4 · 1:11KC +18% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin to KC 10 for 26 yards (21-E.Murray).
Q4 · 0:08KC +14% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 81-M.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	68	53
Total yards	409 (edge)	294
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.17	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	50%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15	0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	0.13
Third downs	6/10	6/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

26/38, 313 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

6.6 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/34, 243 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.2 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

16 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Damien WilliamsRB

10 att, 49 yds, 2 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

7/9 for 76 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Damien WilliamsRB

6/6 for 74 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 20	3	4	0:53	Interception
2	KC	LAC 49	11	49	4:58	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 25	7	26	3:35	Punt
4	KC	KC 20	11	70	4:51	Touchdown
5	LAC	LAC 25	12	66	6:00	Touchdown
6	KC	LAC 49	5	7	1:40	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 5	15	84	7:16	Interception
8	KC	KC 20	5	14	0:38	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 20	1	7	0:09	End of half
10	KC	KC 26	9	74	3:22	Touchdown
11	LAC	LAC 24	13	76	6:41	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 20	5	17	2:04	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 23	5	11	1:43	Punt
14	KC	KC 27	14	63	7:55	Touchdown
15	LAC	LAC 25	13	72	4:26	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 11	5	0	1:12	Punt
17	LAC	LAC 40	9	63	2:33	Touchdown
18	KC	—	1	0	0:04	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	26/38	313	2	2	5	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Jackson	16	58	3.6	1	1.1
Detrez Newsome	6	34	5.7	0	1.0
Mike Williams	1	19	19.0	1	2.4
Travis Benjamin	1	8	8.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	7	9	76	2	24%	9.0
Tyrell Williams	6	12	71	0	32%	-4.4
Travis Benjamin	2	3	57	0	8%	4.0
Antonio Gates	4	5	54	0	13%	3.1
Justin Jackson	3	4	27	0	11%	0.6
Detrez Newsome	2	2	19	0	5%	1.6
Virgil Green	2	3	9	0	8%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Adrian Phillips	5	5	0.0	0
Jatavis Brown	4	4	0.0	0
Desmond King	3	2	0.0	1
Michael Davis	4	0	0.0	1
Derwin James	3	1	0.0	0
Melvin Ingram	1	2	1.5	0
Jahleel Addae	2	1	0.0	0
Isaac Rochell	0	2	0.5	0
Casey Hayward	2	0	0.0	0
Damion Square	1	1	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/34	243	2	0	2	10.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Williams	10	49	4.9	2	3.4
Darrel Williams	2	13	6.5	0	0.5
Patrick Mahomes	2	3	1.5	0	1.7
Tyreek Hill	3	-5	-1.7	0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Damien Williams	6	6	74	0	18%	4.5
Travis Kelce	7	9	61	0	26%	4.2
Tyreek Hill	4	7	46	0	21%	0.2
Darrel Williams	2	2	19	1	6%	2.8
Chris Conley	2	3	19	0	9%	0.5
Kelvin Benjamin	1	2	17	0	6%	0.6
Demarcus Robinson	2	3	7	1	9%	0.6
Demetrius Harris	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	5	6	0.0	0	0
Ron Parker	5	3	0.0	0	0
Eric Berry	4	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Houston	2	3	1.5	0	0
Xavier Williams	1	3	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	3	1	0.0	1	3
Reggie Ragland	1	3	0.0	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	3	0	0.0	0	0
Dee Ford	2	1	1.0	0	0
Chris Jones	2	1	2.5	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 54
LAC moneyline: +174
KC moneyline: -194

Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54; the game landed 57 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: LAC 4 days · KC 4 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.