For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 29 at Kansas City Chiefs 28. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers 29, Chiefs 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, on Mike Williams — 32.1 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04
Mike Williams
Chargers
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-P.Rivers pass to 81-M.Williams is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
O 54 ✓
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 29–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Chargers +32.1% win probability on one snap.
32.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Travis BenjaminChargersQ4 1:11(1:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin to KC 10 for 26 yards (21-E.Murray).
18.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetChargersQ4 0:044-M.Badgley kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to KC 7. 39-Tr. Smith to KC 16 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-17-C.Conley at KC 16. 17-C.Conley pushed ob at KC 17 for 1 yard (23-R.Jenkins).
30.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 3 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chargers at 4 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at +0.15 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Chargers163 of 175 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:04Chargers 29 — Chiefs 28LAC ballKC 63%
Chargers 37%Chiefs 63%
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-P.Rivers pass to 81-M.Williams is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Swing −32.1 for ChiefsExpected points −1.05 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04KC +32% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-P.Rivers pass to 81-M.Williams is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:04LAC +31% win prob4-M.Badgley kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to KC 7. 39-Tr. Smith to KC 16 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-17-C.Conley at KC 16. 17-C.Conley pushed ob at KC 17 for 1 yard (23-R.Jenkins).
4th · 1:11KC +18% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin to KC 10 for 26 yards (21-E.Murray).
4th · 0:08KC +14% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 81-M.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:34LAC +13% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at KC 10 for 0 yards (50-J.Houston).
4th · 0:13KC +11% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 81-M.Williams. PENALTY on KC-23-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at KC 10 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Williams's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:08 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:18Demarcus Robinson·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–7
1st0:51Darrel Williams·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–14
2nd9:50Mike Williams·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+77–14
4th0:08Mike Williams·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point goodLead never changed again+829–28
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryChiefs
Chargers4–3Chiefs
409Total yards294
6.0Yards per play5.5
50%Success rate51%
60%Third-down rate60%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays3
26First downs19
5Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Chargers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Chargers: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.25Chiefs: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Chargers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.30Chiefs: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Chargers: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 68 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 53 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Chiefs 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +14.5 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 14.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chiefs25.0%
leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.5 pts, 6.4 points above their season mean of 8.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Badgley kicks−32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
4-M.Badgley kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to KC 7. 39-Tr. Smith to KC 16 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-17-C.Conley at KC 16. 17-C.Conley pushed ob at KC 17 for 1 yard (23-R.Jenkins).
Q4 0:04 · Chiefs · Kickoff at LAC 35 · gained nothing · -0.01 EP · −32.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 84 yards from the LAC 5 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
48%
Yards
703
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.3372%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2667%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2479%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1057%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 24
Chargers0Chiefs6
Chargers0Chiefs7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Chargers 3
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 44
Chargers0Chiefs13
Chargers0Chiefs14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chargers 11
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 37
2nd quarter43 plays
Chargers6Chiefs14
Chargers7Chiefs14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 3
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Chargers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted17 plays, from the Chargers 5 to the Chiefs 11
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 39
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Chargers7Chiefs20
Chargers7Chiefs21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Chargers 2
Chargers13Chiefs21
Chargers14Chiefs21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chiefs 19
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 27
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 32
4th quarter55 plays
Chargers14Chiefs27
Chargers14Chiefs28
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Chargers 1
Chargers20Chiefs28
Chargers21Chiefs28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 3
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Chargers27Chiefs28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers29Chiefs28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chiefs 1
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
