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2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
DolphinsMiami17
BY 24final margin
VikingsMinnesota41
Miami Dolphins 17 at Minnesota Vikings 41. Final.
Vikings -7.5 ✓O 45 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Minnesota Vikings 41, Dolphins 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 15:00, 1st and 10, on Kalen Ballage — 10.4 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 15:00 · 1st and 10
Kalen Ballage
Dolphins
(15:00) 27-K.Ballage right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Vikings closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Minnesota Vikings 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, Dolphins +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Stefon DiggsVikingsQ1 11:44(11:44) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetVikingsQ3 10:16(10:16) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to MIN 8, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIA 22 for 70 yards (88-L.Carroo).
6.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 5 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.00 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.73 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Dolphins159 of 166 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 27-K.Ballage right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.4 for VikingsExpected points −5.99 for VikingsThe model had Dolphins 8 points higher than the market did.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 15:00MIN +10% win prob(15:00) 27-K.Ballage right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:16MIA +7% win prob(10:16) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to MIN 8, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIA 22 for 70 yards (88-L.Carroo).
1st · 11:44MIN +7% win prob(11:44) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:23MIN +5% win prob(14:23) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 33-D.Cook pushed ob at MIA 43 for 27 yards (28-B.McCain).
1st · 13:10MIA +5% win prob(13:10) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to MIA 21 for 16 yards (22-T.McDonald). PENALTY on MIN-65-P.Elflein, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 37 - No Play.
1st · 12:47MIN +4% win prob(12:47) 33-D.Cook left tackle to MIA 16 for 26 yards (22-T.McDonald).
3rd · 3:30
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stefon Diggs's 13-yard touchdown catch with 11:44 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Dolphins: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.11Vikings: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.73Dolphins: −0.73 expected points added per play
−0.00Vikings: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Dolphins: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.18Vikings: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 53 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Vikings’s 61 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Vikings 7.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's sack or hit rate, 32.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 14.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
low through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, −15.3 pts, is past their previous low of −6.0 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate, 28.6%, is past their previous low of 40.5% in week 9 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 14.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Vikings32.4%
leaned — got home · +17.9 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.99× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.3 pts, 17.3 points below their season mean of 2.0 pts and 2.2 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Ballage right+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) 27-K.Ballage right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 15:00 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at MIA 25 · gained 75 · +5.99 EP · +14.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 76 yards from the MIN 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
36%
Yards
611
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.6677%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.2654%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3029%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.5758%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.5120%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.9917%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Dolphins0Vikings6
Dolphins0Vikings7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Dolphins 13
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 35
Dolphins0Vikings13
Dolphins0Vikings14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Dolphins 13
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 26
Dolphins0Vikings20
Dolphins0Vikings21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Dolphins 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 37
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Vikings 44
Dolphins6Vikings21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Dolphins 42
Dolphins7Vikings21
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 30
Dolphins10Vikings21
Field goal16 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Vikings 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins16Vikings21
Dolphins17Vikings21
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 31
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 38
Dolphins17Vikings24
Field goal4 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 18
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 45
Punt3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Dolphins 26
4th quarter41 plays
Dolphins17Vikings27
Field goal4 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 8
Punt5 plays
Dolphins17Vikings33
Dolphins17Vikings34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Dolphins 40
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 26
Dolphins17Vikings40
Dolphins17Vikings41
Touchdown3 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Vikings 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Dolphins 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
