2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -7.5 ✓O 45 ✓DomeVikings closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Minnesota Vikings 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, MIN +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 15:00MIA — MIN MIA ball · 1st & 10MIN 92%

(15:00) 27-K.Ballage right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 15:00MIN +10% win prob(15:00) 27-K.Ballage right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:16MIA +7% win prob(10:16) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to MIN 8, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIA 22 for 70 yards (88-L.Carroo).
Q1 · 11:44MIN +7% win prob(11:44) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:23MIN +5% win prob(14:23) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 33-D.Cook pushed ob at MIA 43 for 27 yards (28-B.McCain).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Vikings
Offensive plays	53	61
Total yards	193	420 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.41	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	26%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.73	-0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	2/13	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	9	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

14/21, 215 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

11/24, 108 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-24.1 expected points added · -19.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

19 att, 136 yds, 2 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Kalen BallageRB

12 att, 123 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Tyler ConklinTE

2/3 for 53 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Stefon DiggsWR

4/7 for 49 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · -5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 24	8	81	3:20	Touchdown
2	MIA	MIA 18	6	15	2:20	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 40	7	56	2:59	Touchdown
4	MIA	MIA 25	5	1	1:11	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 30	8	65	3:38	Touchdown
6	MIA	MIA 25	8	31	3:47	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 20	10	43	5:01	Defensive touchdown
8	MIN	MIN 25	5	5	1:27	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 32	14	61	6:03	Turnover on downs
10	MIN	MIN 25	2	2	0:14	End of half
11	MIA	MIA 25	3	75	0:11	Touchdown
12	MIN	MIN 25	5	6	1:09	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 25	6	4	3:41	Punt
14	MIN	MIA 22	4	4	1:19	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 25	5	-3	1:06	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 32	6	8	3:15	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 31	4	-10	1:43	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 27	9	57	4:35	Turnover on downs
19	MIA	MIA 25	5	-9	1:03	Punt
20	MIN	MIN 45	5	55	2:04	Touchdown
21	MIA	MIA 25	5	-9	1:56	Turnover on downs
22	MIN	MIA 16	2	21	0:09	Touchdown
23	MIA	MIA 21	9	37	3:43	Turnover on downs
24	MIN	MIA 43	6	17	4:06	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 81 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	11/24	108	0	0	9	-24.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kalen Ballage	12	123	10.3	1	3.8
Frank Gore	5	14	2.8	0	-1.4
Brandon Bolden	1	12	12.0	0	0.8
Kenyan Drake	1	6	6.0	0	0.2
Ryan Tannehill	1	1	1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	3	8	30	35%	-4.1
Kenyan Drake	3	3	28	13%	1.0
Mike Gesicki	2	3	23	13%	1.0
Kenny Stills	1	3	17	13%	0.1
Brice Butler	1	3	12	13%	-0.2
DeVante Parker	0	1	0	4%	-1.0
Nick O'Leary	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Kalen Ballage	1	1	-2	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Raekwon McMillan	3	3	0	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	6	0	1	2
T.J. McDonald	5	1	0	0
Bobby McCain	5	0	0	0
Jerome Baker	3	2	0	0
Reshad Jones	4	0	0	0
Kiko Alonso	2	2	0	0
Sylvester Williams	1	3	0	0
Senorise Perry	2	0	0	0
Torry McTyer	2	0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	14/21	215	2	1	2	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	19	136	7.2	2	4.9
Latavius Murray	15	68	4.5	1	1.1
Stefon Diggs	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Kirk Cousins	5	7	1.4	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Conklin	2	3	53	0	15%	3.1
Stefon Diggs	4	7	49	1	35%	-5.1
Aldrick Robinson	2	2	44	1	10%	4.8
Dalvin Cook	1	2	27	0	10%	0.5
Kyle Rudolph	3	3	23	0	15%	-0.1
Adam Thielen	2	2	19	0	10%	0.9
Laquon Treadwell	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Barr	5	2	2.0	0
Eric Kendricks	3	3	1.0	1
Ben Gedeon	3	2	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	4	1	2.0	0
Sheldon Richardson	2	1	1.0	0
Anthony Harris	2	1	0.0	0
Mackensie Alexander	3	0	1.0	2
Everson Griffen	3	0	1.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	2	0	0.0	1
Kentrell Brothers	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -7.5
Closing total: 45
MIA moneyline: +311
MIN moneyline: -356

Vikings closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 45; the game landed 58 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: MIA 7 days · MIN 6 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Mike Zimmer