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New England Patriots 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers 17. Final.
Patriots -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Patriots 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:51, 2nd and 16, on Joe Haden — 17.9 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:51 · 2nd and 16
Joe Haden
Steelers
(7:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [91-S.Tuitt] at PIT 4. 23-J.Haden to PIT 4 for no gain (11-J.Edelman; 87-R.Gronkowski). NE-11-J.Edelman was injured during the play.
U 55 ✓
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 7:51, Steelers +17.9% win probability on one snap.
17.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Duron HarmonPatriotsQ4 13:35(13:35) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Harmon (24-S.Gilmore) at NE 41. 21-D.Harmon to NE 41 for no gain (84-A.Brown).
12.0pts
Jaylen SamuelsSteelersQ4 3:14(3:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 38-J.Samuels to PIT 46 for 20 yards (30-J.McCourty).
11.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Patriots at 6 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 4 of 9 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 10 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Patriots154 of 162 plays carry both curves
(7:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [91-S.Tuitt] at PIT 4. 23-J.Haden to PIT 4 for no gain (11-J.Edelman; 87-R.Gronkowski). NE-11-J.Edelman was injured during
Swing +17.9 for SteelersExpected points +3.67 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 6 points higher than the market did.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:51NE +18% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [91-S.Tuitt] at PIT 4. 23-J.Haden to PIT 4 for no gain (11-J.Edelman; 87-R.Gronkowski). NE-11-J.Edelman was injured during the play.
4th · 13:35NE +12% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Harmon (24-S.Gilmore) at NE 41. 21-D.Harmon to NE 41 for no gain (84-A.Brown).
4th · 3:14PIT +11% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 38-J.Samuels to PIT 46 for 20 yards (30-J.McCourty).
1st · 6:58PIT +11% win prob(6:58) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:07PIT +10% win prob(12:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-24-S.Gilmore, Defensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 5:29PIT +9% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 15-C.Hogan. PENALTY on PIT-23-J.Haden, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at NE 29 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Antonio Brown's 17-yard touchdown catch with 12:07 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:45Vance McDonald·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+70–7
1st6:58Chris Hogan·63-yd TD catch63-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+77–7
2nd12:07Antonio Brown·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+77–14
3rd0:20Stephen Gostkowski·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+310–14
4th2:34Chris Boswell·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+310–17
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categorySteelers
Patriots3–6Steelers
368Total yards379
6.6Yards per play6.4
50%Success rate53%
30%Third-down rate44%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays12
16First downs22
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Steelers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Patriots: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.12Steelers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Patriots: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.11Steelers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Patriots: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.15Steelers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 56 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Steelers 3.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · +4.2 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Steelers18.9%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 16.5 points below their season mean of 16.5% and 1.1 times their own 14.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
53 dressed · 8 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Trent BrownT · Every snap100%62 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Every snap100%62 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%62 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%62 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Every snap100%62 snaps
11Julian EdelmanWR · Full-time94%58 snaps
10Josh GordonWR · Full-time92%57 snaps
15Chris HoganWR · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Rotational42%26 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Rotational35%22 snaps
46James DevelinFB · Rotational32%20 snaps
34Rex BurkheadRB · Rotational26%16 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Situational8%5 snaps
83Dwayne AllenTE · Situational5%3 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
James FerentzCObi MelifonwuDBDuke DawsonDBKeionta DavisDEDerek RiversDEDanny SheltonDTBrian HoyerQBJacob HollisterTE
Pittsburgh Steelers
53 dressed · 9 never used
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%64 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%64 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%64 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%64 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
84Antonio BrownWR · Full-time95%61 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time94%60 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation69%44 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
17Eli RogersWR · Rotational44%28 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational36%23 snaps
81Jesse JamesTE · Rotational34%22 snaps
10Ryan SwitzerWR · Rotational33%21 snaps
85Xavier GrimbleTE · Situational14%9 snaps
22Stevan RidleyRB · Situational9%6 snaps
45Roosevelt NixFB · Situational8%5 snaps
88Darrius Heyward-BeyWR · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Brian AllenCBMarcus AllenDBL.T. WaltonDEOla AdeniyiOLBMason RudolphQBJoshua DobbsQBJames ConnerRBZach BannerTChukwuma OkoraforT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [91-S.Tuitt] at PIT 4. 23-J.Haden to PIT 4 for no gain (11-J.Edelman; 87-R.Gronkowski). NE-11-J.Edelman was injured during the play.
Q4 7:51 · Patriots · 2nd & goal at PIT 16 · gained nothing · -3.67 EP · −18.2% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 96 yards from the PIT 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0754%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0275%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18+0.1744%
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR14+0.3893%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Patriots0Steelers6
Patriots0Steelers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Patriots 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Patriots6Steelers7
Patriots7Steelers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 37
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 47
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Steelers 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 8 to the Steelers 26
2nd quarter40 plays
Patriots7Steelers13
Patriots7Steelers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Patriots 17
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 47
Intercepted5 plays, from the Steelers 1 to the Patriots 46
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 29
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 47
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Patriots 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 42
No good9 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Patriots 4
Patriots10Steelers14
Field goal17 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Steelers 10
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 31 to midfield
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Steelers 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.8 seconds
Patriots10Steelers17
Field goal17 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Patriots 30
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Steelers 11
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -2.5
Closing total
55
Patriots moneyline
-129
Steelers moneyline
+117
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 55; the game landed 27 — under by 28.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
John Parry
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Mike Tomlin
4th · 0:37NE +9% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Gronkowski. PENALTY on NE-69-S.Mason, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 11 - No Play. Pressure by 90-Watt, Coverage by 34-Te. Edmunds.
3rd · 12:20PIT +9% win prob(12:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 13-J.Washington to NE 43 for 32 yards (30-J.McCourty).
Patriotscategory by categorySteelers
Patriots0
Steelers6
