2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · Heinz Field

New England Patriots

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

NE -2.5 upsetU 55 ✓Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 7:51, NE +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:51NE — PIT NE ball · 2nd & 16PIT 51%

(7:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [91-S.Tuitt] at PIT 4. 23-J.Haden to PIT 4 for no gain (11-J.Edelman; 87-R.Gronkowski). NE-11-J.Edelman was injured during

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:51NE +18% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [91-S.Tuitt] at PIT 4. 23-J.Haden to PIT 4 for no gain (11-J.Edelman; 87-R.Gronkowski). NE-11-J.Edelman was injured during the play.
Q4 · 13:35NE +12% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Harmon (24-S.Gilmore) at NE 41. 21-D.Harmon to NE 41 for no gain (84-A.Brown).
Q4 · 3:14PIT +11% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 38-J.Samuels to PIT 46 for 20 yards (30-J.McCourty).
Q1 · 6:58PIT +11% win prob(6:58) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Steelers
Offensive plays	56	59
Total yards	368	379 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.06	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	50%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	3/10	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

25/36, 279 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.7 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

22/34, 235 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

4.0 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen SamuelsRB

19 att, 142 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

13 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

7/11 for 90 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -2.7 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Chris HoganWR

2/3 for 68 yds, 1 TD

8% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	13	70	6:20	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 23	5	72	1:52	Touchdown
3	PIT	PIT 28	7	6	3:42	Punt
4	NE	NE 22	6	32	1:48	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 8	9	70	4:17	Touchdown
6	NE	NE 25	7	32	3:44	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 1	5	53	2:16	Interception
8	NE	NE 24	4	5	0:48	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 28	6	19	2:10	Punt
10	NE	NE 19	7	26	2:42	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 19	1	0	0:21	End of half
12	NE	NE 25	6	17	2:00	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 21	9	75	4:28	Turnover on downs
14	NE	NE 22	13	57	8:15	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	PIT 25	6	25	1:48	Interception
16	NE	NE 41	8	58	5:46	Interception
17	PIT	PIT 4	13	61	5:13	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 25	11	69	2:16	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	PIT 21	1	0	0:14	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	25/36	279	1	1	1	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sony Michel	13	59	4.5	-0.1
Rex Burkhead	4	25	6.3	1.1
James White	2	12	6.0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	7	11	90	0	31%	-2.7
Chris Hogan	2	3	68	1	8%	4.9
James White	5	7	25	0	19%	-3.3
Rob Gronkowski	2	5	21	0	14%	1.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	3	20	0	8%	1.1
Josh Gordon	1	2	19	0	6%	-0.2
Rex Burkhead	3	3	18	0	8%	1.1
James Develin	2	2	18	0	6%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jason McCourty	7	2	0.0	0
J.C. Jackson	6	0	0.0	1
Jonathan Jones	5	0	1.0	0
Patrick Chung	4	1	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	3	2	0.0	0
Malcom Brown	1	2	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	0	1.0	0
Stephon Gilmore	2	0	0.0	2
Dont'a Hightower	1	1	0.0	0
Rex Burkhead	1	0	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	22/34	235	2	2	2	4.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Samuels	19	142	7.5	3.8
Stevan Ridley	3	16	5.3	-0.3
Ryan Switzer	1	3	3.0	-0.1
Ben Roethlisberger	2	-3	-1.5	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Washington	3	4	65	0	12%	4.3
Antonio Brown	4	7	49	1	21%	-0.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	10	40	0	30%	-2.7
Jaylen Samuels	2	2	30	0	6%	2.7
Eli Rogers	4	4	20	0	12%	1.3
Vance McDonald	2	3	13	1	9%	3.1
Ryan Switzer	2	2	9	0	6%	0.0
Jesse James	1	1	9	0	3%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Joe Haden	6	4	0.0	1	2
Mike Hilton	4	2	0.0	0	0
Sean Davis	3	3	0.0	0	1
Stephon Tuitt	2	1	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	0	1.0	0	0
Cameron Sutton	1	1	0.0	0	0
Morgan Burnett	1	1	0.0	0	1
Jon Bostic	2	0	0.0	0	0
Antonio Brown	1	0	0.0	0	0
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2.5
Closing total: 55
NE moneyline: -129
PIT moneyline: +117

Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 27 — under by 28.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: NE 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Mike Tomlin