2018 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 17, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Carolina Panthers

NO -6 no coverU 50.5 ✓Saints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 12–9 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:18, NO +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:18NO — CAR CAR ball · 2nd & 3CAR 50%

(:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Apple at NO 0. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:18NO +16% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Apple at NO 0. Touchback.
Q1 · 4:12CAR +15% win prob(4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:00NO +14% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 85-D.Arnold INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (58-T.Davis) at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to NO 42 for 29 yards (10-T.Smith).
Q4 · 1:51NO +13% win prob(1:51) 11-T.Lewis right end to CAR 1 for 4 yards (24-J.Bradberry). FUMBLES (24-J.Bradberry), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. Penalty on NO-13-M.Thomas, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Panthers
Offensive plays	68	56
Total yards	348 (edge)	247
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.12 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	44% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	56%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	5/13	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

23/35, 203 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.6 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

16/29, 131 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.5 expected points added · -14.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

14 att, 67 yds, 1 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

12 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

8/11 for 67 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

7/9 for 49 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	10	25	4:17	Punt
2	NO	NO 14	7	40	3:17	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 10	8	75	3:24	Touchdown
4	NO	NO 49	6	23	1:46	Turnover on downs
5	CAR	CAR 25	5	9	1:30	Punt
6	NO	NO 25	12	74	5:50	Turnover on downs
7	CAR	CAR 25	8	9	3:14	Punt
8	NO	NO 23	9	35	3:28	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 23	4	-5	1:06	Punt
10	NO	NO 49	2	4	0:22	Interception
11	CAR	NO 42	6	29	1:34	Interception
12	NO	NO 20	1	0	0:12	End of half
13	NO	NO 25	7	14	2:25	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 17	4	3	1:05	Punt
15	NO	NO 24	7	13	3:54	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 15	8	57	4:11	Fumble
17	NO	NO 16	12	66	6:13	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 26	8	26	3:21	Punt
19	NO	NO 35	14	79	7:07	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	CAR 20	7	19	1:09	Turnover on downs
21	NO	CAR 39	1	0	0:35	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 79 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	23/35	203	0	1	2	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	14	67	4.8	1	2.8
Mark Ingram	12	63	5.3	0	-0.8
Taysom Hill	1	17	17.0	0	1.9
Zach Line	2	6	3.0	0	-0.1
Tommylee Lewis	1	4	4.0	0	-4.2
Drew Brees	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	7	9	49	26%	-1.8
Keith Kirkwood	2	2	40	6%	5.3
Alvin Kamara	7	9	36	26%	-2.2
Benjamin Watson	1	2	28	6%	0.9
Josh Hill	2	3	24	9%	0.3
Tre'Quan Smith	2	4	15	12%	-0.4
Mark Ingram	2	2	11	6%	0.3
Taysom Hill	0	1	0	3%	-1.5
Dan Arnold	0	2	0	6%	-5.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	4	4	1.0	0	2
Vonn Bell	4	3	1.0	0	1
Marcus Williams	3	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	3	2	0.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	1	3	0.0	0	0
Alex Okafor	2	2	1.0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	3	1	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	2	1	0.0	1	2
Sheldon Rankins	2	1	0.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	16/29	131	0	1	4	-11.5
Christian McCaffrey	1/1	50	1	0	0	6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	15	53	3.5	-0.8
D.J. Moore	1	22	22.0	-3.1
Cam Newton	5	15	3.0	0.4
Curtis Samuel	2	8	4.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	8	11	67	0	38%	0.6
Chris Manhertz	1	2	50	1	7%	4.9
Jarius Wright	3	4	21	0	14%	0.9
Curtis Samuel	1	4	17	0	14%	2.4
Ian Thomas	2	4	14	0	14%	-2.5
D.J. Moore	2	3	12	0	10%	-1.4
Devin Funchess	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Luke Kuechly	11	2	0.0	0	1
Thomas Davis	8	3	0.0	0	1
Eric Reid	5	2	0.0	0	1
Shaq Thompson	2	5	0.5	0	0
Mike Adams	3	3	0.0	0	0
Kawann Short	3	1	0.0	0	0
James Bradberry	2	1	0.0	1	1
Donte Jackson	2	1	0.0	0	1
Captain Munnerlyn	3	0	1.0	0	2
Wes Horton	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -6
Closing total: 50.5
NO moneyline: -248
CAR moneyline: +221

Saints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 21 — under by 29.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: NO 8 days · CAR 8 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.