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2018 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 17, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans12
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina9
New Orleans Saints 12 at Carolina Panthers 9. Final.
Saints -6 no coverU 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
New Orleans Saints 12, Panthers 9 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:18, 2nd and 3, on Eli Apple — 15.8 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:18 · 2nd and 3
Eli Apple
Saints
(:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Apple at NO 0. Touchback.
Saints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 12–9 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:18, Saints +15.8% win probability on one snap.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris ManhertzPanthersQ1 4:12(4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2pts
James BradberryPanthersQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 85-D.Arnold INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (58-T.Davis) at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to NO 42 for 29 yards (10-T.Smith).
13.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Saints157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Apple at NO 0. Touchback.
Swing −15.8 for PanthersExpected points −3.53 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 21 points higher than the market did.play 85
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:18NO +16% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Apple at NO 0. Touchback.
1st · 4:12CAR +15% win prob(4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00NO +14% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 85-D.Arnold INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (58-T.Davis) at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to NO 42 for 29 yards (10-T.Smith).
4th · 1:51NO +13% win prob(1:51) 11-T.Lewis right end to CAR 1 for 4 yards (24-J.Bradberry). FUMBLES (24-J.Bradberry), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. Penalty on NO-13-M.Thomas, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 12:18CAR +12% win prob(12:18) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:43CAR +10% win prob(9:43) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-K.Barner MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CAR 26. PENALTY on CAR-55-D.Mayo, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at NO 30 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 12:18 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st4:12Chris Manhertz·50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Christian McCaffreyfrom Christian McCaffrey+70–7
1st2:20Wil Lutz·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–7
2nd10:00Wil Lutz·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+36–7
4th12:18Alvin Kamara·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+612–7
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Saints: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.15Panthers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Saints: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.16Panthers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Saints: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.15Panthers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 68 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Panthers’s 56 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Panthers 2.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Panthers7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 27.1 points above their season mean of 39.6% and 1.4 times their own 19.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 9 never used
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%75 snaps
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%75 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%75 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time93%70 snaps
74Jermon BushrodT · Full-time80%60 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation69%52 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation64%48 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation61%46 snaps
63Cameron TomC · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
60Max UngerC · Rotational49%37 snaps
18Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational45%34 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Rotational44%33 snaps
22Mark IngramRB · Rotational44%33 snaps
64Will ClappC · Rotational25%19 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Situational21%16 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Situational19%14 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational17%13 snaps
11Tommylee LewisWR · Situational15%11 snaps
43Marcus WilliamsFS · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Ken CrawleyCBTrey HendricksonDEMitchell LoewenDEManti Te'oMLBDerek NewtonOTTeddy BridgewaterQBTerron ArmsteadTSimmie CobbsWRAustin CarrWR
Carolina Panthers
53 dressed · 9 never used
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%58 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%58 snaps
71Marshall NewhouseT · Every snap100%58 snaps
67Ryan KalilC · Every snap100%58 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Every snap100%58 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%58 snaps
1Cam NewtonQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Full-time98%57 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Full-time95%55 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Full-time93%54 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Heavy rotation62%36 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational26%15 snaps
17Devin FunchessWR · Situational19%11 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational5%3 snaps
74Chris ClarkOT · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Lorenzo DossCBEfe ObadaDEGraham GanoKMarquis HaynesLBAndre SmithLBTaylor HeinickeQBTravaris CadetRBMose FrazierWRTorrey SmithWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 85-D.Arnold INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (58-T.Davis) at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to NO 42 for 29 yards (10-T.Smith).
Q2 2:00 · Saints · 2nd & 6 at CAR 47 · gained nothing · -4.29 EP · −19.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 90 yards from the CAR 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
37%
Yards
593
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.2965%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.3469%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0975%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1229%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7-0.2714%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0740%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 46
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 46
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Saints0Panthers6
Saints0Panthers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 10 to midfield
Saints3Panthers7
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Panthers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 34
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 47
2nd quarter46 plays
Saints6Panthers7
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 44 to the Panthers 6
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 38
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 44
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Panthers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Saints 13
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 39
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 20
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 47
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Panthers 15 to midfield
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 47
4th quarter43 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Saints12Panthers7
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Saints12Panthers9
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Panthers 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Saints 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Drive ended19 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Panthers 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 39
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -6
Closing total
50.5
Saints moneyline
-248
Panthers moneyline
+221
Saints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 21 — under by 29.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 48°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Saints 8 days · Panthers 8 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Ron Rivera
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 11:58CAR +10% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 48 for 22 yards (43-M.Williams; 47-A.Anzalone).
3rd · 3:35NO +10% win prob(3:35) 12-D.Moore up the middle to NO 28 for 22 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by NO-53-A.Klein at NO 16. 53-A.Klein to NO 16 for no gain (10-C.Samuel).
