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2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
RaidersOakland16
BY 14final margin
BengalsCincinnati30
Oakland Raiders 16 at Cincinnati Bengals 30. Final.
Bengals -3 ✓46 push
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Cincinnati Bengals 30, Raiders 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:43, 2nd and 7, on J.Nelson — 7.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:43 · 2nd and 7
J.Nelson
Raiders
(4:43) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 82-J.Nelson to CIN 7 for 44 yards (36-S.Williams).
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Cincinnati Bengals 30–16. Biggest swing: Q3 4:43, Raiders +7.8% win probability on one snap.
7.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CarrBengalsQ1 8:58(8:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 49 for -9 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-96-C.Dunlap at CIN 49. 96-C.Dunlap to CIN 49 for no gain (61-R.Hudson). {Sack credited for 7 yards due to point of recovery}
6.9pts
Tyler BoydBengalsQ1 3:04(3:04) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Raiders179 of 189 plays carry both curves
(4:43) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 82-J.Nelson to CIN 7 for 44 yards (36-S.Williams).
Swing −7.8 for BengalsExpected points −3.43 for BengalsThe model had Raiders 2 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:43CIN +8% win prob(4:43) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 82-J.Nelson to CIN 7 for 44 yards (36-S.Williams).
1st · 3:04CIN +7% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:58OAK +7% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 49 for -9 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-96-C.Dunlap at CIN 49. 96-C.Dunlap to CIN 49 for no gain (61-R.Hudson). {Sack credited for 7 yards due to point of recovery}
2nd · 10:20CIN +7% win prob(10:20) (Run formation) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:05CIN +6% win prob8-D.Carlson kicks 63 yards from LV 35 to CIN 2. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at LV 21 for 77 yards (25-E.Harris).
3rd · 6:33CIN +6% win prob(6:33) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Boyd's 7-yard touchdown catch with 3:04 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:04Tyler Boyd·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff DriskelLead never changed again+70–7
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Bengals17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.2%, 19.9 points below their season mean of 59.1% and 2.0 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:43) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 82-J.Nelson to CIN 7 for 44 yards (36-S.Williams).
Q3 4:43 · Raiders · 2nd & 7 at LV 49 · gained 44 · +3.43 EP · +10.5% win probability
177 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 90 yards from the CIN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
37%
Yards
591
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0557%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.4977%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.2229%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.7471%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2660%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 44
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 31
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Bengals 42
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 6 to the Raiders 7
Raiders0Bengals6
Raiders0Bengals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 6
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Bengals 42
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Raiders0Bengals13
Raiders0Bengals14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Raiders 1
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 30
Raiders0Bengals17
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 16
Raiders6Bengals17
Raiders7Bengals17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Bengals 1
Raiders7Bengals20
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Raiders 18
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Bengals 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 48
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Raiders 40
Raiders10Bengals20
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Bengals 30
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 22
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Raiders13Bengals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Bengals 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 36
4th quarter46 plays
Raiders13Bengals23
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Raiders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Raiders 41
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Raiders16Bengals23
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Bengals 21
Raiders16Bengals29
Raiders16Bengals30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 15
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
The period ended12 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Raiders 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
