2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Los Angeles Rams

LA -13.5 upsetO 52.5 ✓Rams closed -13.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 30–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, PHI +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04PHI — LA LA ball · 2nd & 10PHI 82%

(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04PHI +18% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds.
Q4 · 3:03LA +15% win prob(3:03) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to LA 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-J.Natson to LA 36 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-57-D.Alexander at LA 36. 57-D.Alexander to LA 36 for no gain (19-J.Natson).
Q3 · 2:21PHI +13% win prob(2:21) 16-J.Goff to LA 29 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LA 28. 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 28 for -6 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill). FUMBLES (54-K.Grugier-Hill) [54-K.Grugier-Hill], RECOVERED by PHI-24-C.Graham at LA 28. 24-C.Graham to LA 12 for 16 yards (17-R.Woods).
Q1 · 13:37LA +12% win prob(13:37) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 24 for 13 yards (53-J.Lawler).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Rams
Offensive plays	61	73
Total yards	381	407 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	41%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	4/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	16	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Rams outgained Eagles 407–381 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

35/53, 339 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.2 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Nick FolesQB

24/31, 270 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

7.7 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

12 att, 48 yds, 2 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Wendell SmallwoodRB

10 att, 48 yds, 2 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Alshon JefferyWR

8/8 for 160 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Todd GurleyRB

10/13 for 76 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	5	-1	1:36	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 24	9	43	4:49	Turnover on downs
3	LA	LA 20	15	90	7:19	Touchdown
4	PHI	PHI 25	11	48	4:16	Turnover on downs
5	LA	LA 25	3	19	0:49	Interception
6	PHI	PHI 42	4	9	1:42	Turnover on downs
7	LA	LA 49	8	38	4:51	Turnover on downs
8	PHI	PHI 25	11	75	3:31	Touchdown
9	LA	LA 25	11	57	1:07	Turnover on downs
10	PHI	PHI 25	5	19	2:24	Punt
11	LA	LA 5	4	4	1:22	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 41	3	59	0:46	Touchdown
13	LA	LA 12	5	8	1:21	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 26	10	62	5:56	Turnover on downs
15	LA	LA 25	4	3	0:59	Fumble
16	PHI	LA 12	3	12	0:38	Touchdown
17	LA	LA 25	5	5	0:55	Turnover on downs
18	PHI	LA 30	3	12	1:30	Interception
19	LA	LA 35	10	61	4:45	Turnover on downs
20	PHI	PHI 19	7	28	3:06	Punt
21	LA	LA 16	12	84	2:12	Touchdown
22	PHI	PHI 17	6	13	1:15	Punt
23	PHI	LA 36	4	1	1:43	Turnover on downs
24	LA	LA 43	7	39	1:08	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	24/31	270	0	1	0	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Wendell Smallwood	10	48	4.8	2	3.8
Darren Sproles	3	30	10.0	0	2.4
Josh Adams	15	28	1.9	1	-7.0
Nick Foles	2	5	2.5	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Alshon Jeffery	8	8	160	26%	11.6
Golden Tate	5	5	43	16%	1.6
Zach Ertz	3	7	22	23%	-7.2
Darren Sproles	3	4	16	13%	-0.9
Dallas Goedert	2	2	12	6%	1.9
Wendell Smallwood	2	2	9	6%	2.2
Nelson Agholor	1	2	8	6%	-0.8
Josh Adams	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Malcolm Jenkins	9	3	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	8	3	0.0	0	0
Nigel Bradham	6	1	0.0	0	0
Cre'von LeBlanc	5	2	0.0	0	1
Kamu Grugier-Hill	3	1	1.0	0	0
Fletcher Cox	2	1	1.0	0	0
Nathan Gerry	1	2	0.0	0	0
Corey Graham	1	2	0.0	0	0
Avonte Maddox	3	0	0.0	1	2
Darren Sproles	1	0	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	35/53	339	0	1	2	-2.2
Johnny Hekker	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	12	48	4.0	2	0.4
Robert Woods	1	19	19.0	0	1.2
Jared Goff	2	11	5.5	0	0.8
John Kelly	2	4	2.0	0	-1.3
Justin Davis	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Todd Gurley	10	13	76	25%	2.2
Robert Woods	7	9	74	18%	3.3
Josh Reynolds	5	12	70	24%	-1.9
Brandin Cooks	6	7	59	14%	2.7
Gerald Everett	5	7	46	14%	0.5
Tyler Higbee	2	2	14	4%	1.1
KhaDarel Hodge	0	1	0	2%	-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
John Johnson	9	3	0	1
Cory Littleton	6	3	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	5	1	0	0
Marcus Peters	4	1	0	1
Ndamukong Suh	3	2	0	0
Michael Brockers	1	3	0	0
Mark Barron	2	2	0	0
Nickell Robey	2	1	0	0
Aaron Donald	1	1	0	0
Aqib Talib	2	0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -13.5
Closing total: 52.5
PHI moneyline: +590
LA moneyline: -800

Rams closed -13.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 53 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 60°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: PHI 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Sean McVay