2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · Levi's Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SEA -3.5 upsetO 44 ✓Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 7:36, SF +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 7:36SEA — SF SEA ball · 4th & 6SF 77%

(7:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (42-D.Hill).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 7:36SF +21% win prob(7:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (42-D.Hill).
OT · 5:26SF +20% win prob(5:26) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Pettis (26-LA.Griffin) [51-B.Mingo]. PENALTY on SEA-26-LA.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 44 - No Play.
Q4 · 8:39SF +19% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin to SF 31 for 26 yards (38-A.Exum). Caught at SF 32. 1-YAC
Q2 · 9:37SF +18% win prob(9:37) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 88-G.Celek for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SEA 25. 25-YAC

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	49ers
Offensive plays	69	56
Total yards	385 (edge)	353
Yards per play	5.6	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	0.00
Success rate	42% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	51%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.38
Third downs	9/19 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

20/29, 275 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.2 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

23/31, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.6 expected points added · +17.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

22 att, 119 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

17 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Dante PettisWR

5/5 for 83 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Doug BaldwinWR

4/6 for 77 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 8	5	8	1:28	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 41	10	59	4:05	Touchdown
3	SF	—	2	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown
4	SEA	SEA 25	9	36	4:36	Punt
5	SF	SF 1	4	54	2:00	Defensive touchdown
6	SEA	SEA 28	7	29	2:48	Punt
7	SF	SF 2	11	96	5:22	Touchdown
8	SEA	SEA 21	10	79	4:10	Touchdown
9	SF	SF 25	10	61	4:14	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 25	5	13	1:03	Punt
11	SF	SF 20	1	0	0:02	End of half
12	SEA	SEA 25	5	1	2:11	Punt
13	SF	SF 30	5	20	1:59	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 20	7	11	4:02	Punt
15	SF	SF 34	8	41	3:54	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 25	12	75	4:03	Touchdown
17	SF	SF 25	8	45	4:00	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	SEA 25	8	40	4:30	Turnover on downs
19	SF	SF 25	5	0	1:00	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 34	4	6	1:44	Punt
21	SF	SF 20	6	-1	0:59	Punt
22	SEA	SEA 26	6	22	1:27	Punt
23	SF	SF 20	1	0	0:11	Turnover on downs
24	SEA	SEA 14	5	14	2:35	Punt
25	SF	SF 38	7	29	4:19	Turnover on downs

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	23/31	237	2	0	3	8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	22	119	5.4	1	3.8
Mike Davis	5	21	4.2	0	-0.7
Russell Wilson	5	15	3.0	0	0.0
Tyler Lockett	1	11	11.0	0	-0.2
J.D. McKissic	2	2	1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Doug Baldwin	4	6	77	2	21%	10.2
Mike Davis	8	8	63	0	29%	2.6
Tyler Lockett	2	2	45	0	7%	4.1
Chris Carson	6	6	29	0	21%	0.1
Ed Dickson	2	2	14	0	7%	0.5
David Moore	1	3	9	0	11%	1.4
Nick Vannett	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Austin Calitro	5	2	0.0	0
Poona Ford	3	3	0.0	0
Frank Clark	5	0	1.0	0
Tedric Thompson	5	0	0.0	0
Bobby Wagner	3	1	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	3	0	2.0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	0	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	2	0	0.0	0
Delano Hill	1	1	0.0	1
Shalom Luani	1	1	0.0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	20/29	275	1	0	3	9.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Matt Breida	17	50	2.9	-2.4
Jeffery Wilson	7	46	6.6	-6.7
Nick Mullens	2	-2	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dante Pettis	5	5	83	0	17%	5.6
Garrett Celek	2	2	61	1	7%	5.2
George Kittle	3	8	51	0	28%	-0.5
Matt Breida	5	5	46	0	17%	3.2
Kendrick Bourne	2	4	16	0	14%	-1.2
Trent Taylor	1	2	8	0	7%	0.9
Marquise Goodwin	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.9
Jeffery Wilson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
DeForest Buckner	5	4	2.0	0
Elijah Lee	5	3	0.0	0
Tarvarius Moore	5	2	0.0	2
Fred Warner	2	5	0.0	0
Antone Exum	6	0	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	3	2	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	2	3	0.0	0
Marcell Harris	4	0	0.0	0
Richard Sherman	2	1	0.0	0
D.J. Jones	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3.5
Closing total: 44
SEA moneyline: -207
SF moneyline: +186

Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 49 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: SEA 6 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.