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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 23 at San Francisco 49ers 26. Final.
Seahawks -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
San Francisco 49ers 26, Seahawks 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 7:36, 4th and 6 — 20.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 7:36 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
(7:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (42-D.Hill).
O 44 ✓
15.3 mph wind
Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 7:36, Seahawks +20.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
20.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Doug BaldwinSeahawksQ4 8:39(8:39) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin to SF 31 for 26 yards (38-A.Exum). Caught at SF 32. 1-YAC
19.2pts
Nick Mullens49ersOT 5:26(5:26) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Pettis (26-LA.Griffin) [51-B.Mingo]. PENALTY on SEA-26-LA.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 44 - No Play.
20.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 19 on third down, against 49ers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Doug BaldwinSeahawksWR4 of 6 for 77, 2 TD+10.21 expected points on 6 touches
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Seahawks177 of 187 plays carry both curves
(7:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (42-D.Hill).
Swing −20.7 for 49ersExpected points +0.43 for 49ersModel and market agree here.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 7:36SF +21% win prob(7:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (42-D.Hill).
Overtime · 5:26SF +20% win prob(5:26) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Pettis (26-LA.Griffin) [51-B.Mingo]. PENALTY on SEA-26-LA.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 44 - No Play.
4th · 8:39SF +19% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin to SF 31 for 26 yards (38-A.Exum). Caught at SF 32. 1-YAC
2nd · 9:37SF +18% win prob(9:37) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 88-G.Celek for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SEA 25. 25-YAC
1st · 9:27SF +17% win prob11-S.Janikowski kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to SF 3. 13-R.James for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 5:21SF +14% win prob(5:21) 41-J.Wilson right tackle to SEA 25 for 16 yards (33-T.Thompson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robbie Gould's 36-yard field goal with 3:11 left in overtime put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:31Doug Baldwin·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · kick no good, wide right+66–0
1st9:27Richie James·97-yd return TD97-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+76–7
2nd9:37Garrett Celek·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+76–14
2nd5:29Doug Baldwin·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+713–14
2nd1:10Robbie Gould·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Holba+313–17
3rd2:59Robbie Gould·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Holba+313–20
4th9:56Robbie Gould·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Holba+320–23
4th5:27Sebastian Janikowski·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+323–23
Overtime3:11Robbie Gould·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.HolbaLead never changed again+323–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
Seahawks6–249ers
385Total yards353
5.6Yards per play6.3
42%Success rate39%
47%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays9
17First downs16
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Seahawks: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.0049ers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.2949ers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.3849ers: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 69 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against 49ers’s 56 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, 49ers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 31.3%, is past their previous high of 28.0% in week 13 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +13.8 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
49ers14.3%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.3%, 13.8 points above their season mean of 17.5% and 1.7 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Dickson punts+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (42-D.Hill).
OT 7:36 · Seahawks · 4th & 6 at SEA 18 · gained nothing · -0.43 EP · +20.7% win probability
175 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 98 yards from the SF 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
39%
Yards
736
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3062%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29-0.2059%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12-0.0775%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR11+0.479%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1925%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.6038%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2643%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2280%
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Seahawks649ers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the 49ers 5
Seahawks649ers6
Seahawks649ers7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 39
Fumble lost5 plays, from the 49ers 1 to the 49ers 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the 49ers 43
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt1 play
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Seahawks649ers13
Seahawks649ers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the Seahawks 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Seahawks1249ers14
Seahawks1349ers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the 49ers 35
Seahawks1349ers17
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 9
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 45
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 34
Seahawks1349ers20
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Seahawks 15
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 10
4th quarter52 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Seahawks1949ers20
Seahawks2049ers20
Touchdown4 plays
Seahawks2049ers23
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Seahawks2349ers23
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 26
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Seahawks 40
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 37
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 43
The period ended2 plays
Overtime16 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 20
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Seahawks2349ers26
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Seahawks 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
