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2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay12
BY 8final margin
RavensBaltimore20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 at Baltimore Ravens 20. Final.
Ravens -8.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Baltimore Ravens 20, Buccaneers 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 3:15, 3rd and 20, on Mike Evans — 18.8 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:15 · 3rd and 20
Mike Evans
Buccaneers
(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at BAL 21 for 64 yards (22-J.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 10 yards, enforced at BAL 21.
Ravens closed -8.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 20–12. Biggest swing: Q2 3:15, Buccaneers +18.8% win probability on one snap.
18.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersQ1 1:29(1:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 43, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 49. 54-L.David to TB 49 for no gain (35-G.Edwards).
8.7pts
Jameis WinstonBuccaneersQ2 12:19(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on BAL-29-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 6 - No Play.
7.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Buccaneers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 6 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Buccaneers154 of 164 plays carry both curves
(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at BAL 21 for 64 yards (22-J.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 10 yards, enforced at BAL 21.
Swing −18.8 for RavensExpected points −5.59 for RavensThe model had Buccaneers 14 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:15BAL +19% win prob(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at BAL 21 for 64 yards (22-J.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 10 yards, enforced at BAL 21.
1st · 1:29TB +9% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 43, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 49. 54-L.David to TB 49 for no gain (35-G.Edwards).
2nd · 12:19BAL +8% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on BAL-29-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 6 - No Play.
1st · 0:06BAL +8% win prob(:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at BAL 23 for 23 yards (22-J.Smith).
3rd · 7:59BAL +7% win prob(7:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 30 yards to BAL 17, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 27-C.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-30-J.Shaw at BAL 14. 30-J.Shaw to BAL 14 for no gain (27-C.Jones).
2nd · 5:22BAL +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 24-yard field goal with 0:13 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd12:12Peyton Barber·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+66–0
3rd5:46Cairo Santos·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap G.Sanborn+312–17
4th13:37Justin Tucker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+312–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryRavens
Buccaneers1–7Ravens
242Total yards373
5.1Yards per play5.3
36%Success rate45%
30%Third-down rate60%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays9
11First downs23
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Buccaneers: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Buccaneers: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Buccaneers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.02Ravens: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 47 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Ravens’s 71 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate, 48.6%, is past their previous low of 52.2% in week 1 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens11.5%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 48.6%, 15.6 points below their season mean of 64.2% and 1.9 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
53 dressed · 9 never used
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%50 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%50 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%50 snaps
3Jameis WinstonQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
69Demar DotsonOT · Every snap100%50 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time90%45 snaps
77Caleb BenenochT · Full-time84%42 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Full-time82%41 snaps
12Chris GodwinWR · Full-time82%41 snaps
25Peyton BarberRB · Heavy rotation64%32 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation58%29 snaps
82Antony AuclairTE · Heavy rotation52%26 snaps
85Bobo WilsonWR · Rotational26%13 snaps
32Jacquizz RodgersRB · Rotational26%13 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Situational16%8 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Situational8%4 snaps
17Justin WatsonWR · Situational4%2 snaps
61Leonard WesterT · Situational4%2 snaps
45Alan CrossTE · Situational4%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
David RiversCBRakeem Nunez-RochesDTMichael LiedtkeGAdarius TaylorMLBRyan FitzpatrickQBRyan GriffinQBJustin EvansSSTanner HudsonTEDeSean JacksonWR
Baltimore Ravens
53 dressed · 8 never used
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%76 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%76 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%76 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%76 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation76%58 snaps
74James HurstG · Heavy rotation74%56 snaps
13John BrownWR · Heavy rotation62%47 snaps
15Michael CrabtreeWR · Heavy rotation58%44 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Heavy rotation57%43 snaps
30Kenneth DixonRB · Heavy rotation51%39 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational43%33 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational39%30 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational38%29 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Rotational36%27 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Rotational34%26 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Rotational28%21 snaps
37Javorius AllenRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Patrick RicardDLZach SielerDTAlex LewisGTim WilliamsOLBJoe FlaccoQBRobert Griffin IIIQBTy MontgomeryRBJordan LasleyWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass+22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at BAL 21 for 64 yards (22-J.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 10 yards, enforced at BAL 21.
Q2 3:15 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 20 at TB 15 · gained 64 · +5.59 EP · +21.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 78 yards from the BAL 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
611
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1439%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.8370%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0837%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0937%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.170%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0220%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Ravens 43
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 35
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 40
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 27
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Buccaneers 43
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Ravens 46
2nd quarter50 plays
Buccaneers6Ravens0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 3
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Buccaneers6Ravens6
Buccaneers6Ravens7
Touchdown20 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Buccaneers 2
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.8 seconds
Buccaneers9Ravens7
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Ravens 3
Buccaneers9Ravens10
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Buccaneers 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Buccaneers9Ravens16
Buccaneers9Ravens17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Buccaneers 10
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Ravens 47
Buccaneers12Ravens17
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 9
The period ended13 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Buccaneers 31
4th quarter35 plays
Buccaneers12Ravens20
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 17
Intercepted2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Buccaneers 41
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Ravens 30
The period ended14 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Buccaneers 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Buccaneerscategory by categoryRavens
Buccaneers6
Ravens0
