2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -8.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓Ravens closed -8.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 20–12. Biggest swing: Q2 3:15, BAL +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:15TB — BAL TB ball · 3rd & 20BAL 79%

(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at BAL 21 for 64 yards (22-J.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 10 yards, enforced at BAL 21.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:15BAL +19% win prob(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at BAL 21 for 64 yards (22-J.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 10 yards, enforced at BAL 21.
Q1 · 1:29TB +9% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 43, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 49. 54-L.David to TB 49 for no gain (35-G.Edwards).
Q2 · 12:19BAL +8% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on BAL-29-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 6 - No Play.
Q1 · 0:06BAL +8% win prob(:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at BAL 23 for 23 yards (22-J.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Ravens
Offensive plays	47	71
Total yards	242	373 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	36%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.02
Third downs	3/10	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

13/25, 157 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.1 expected points added · -11.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/23, 131 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.0 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

19 att, 104 yds, 1 TD

5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

4/9 for 121 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

5/6 for 58 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 35	6	21	2:12	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 30	4	10	1:55	Punt
3	TB	TB 26	7	15	2:24	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 21	4	3	1:30	Punt
5	TB	TB 13	6	14	2:52	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 25	6	32	2:43	Fumble
7	TB	TB 49	9	48	4:16	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 27	18	68	8:10	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 25	8	72	2:10	Turnover on downs
10	BAL	BAL 31	9	63	1:39	Turnover on downs
11	TB	TB 28	2	0	0:09	End of half
12	BAL	BAL 22	12	88	4:57	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	7	28	2:14	Punt
14	TB	BAL 14	4	15	2:06	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	BAL 45	16	53	7:11	Turnover on downs
16	TB	TB 23	2	0	0:13	Interception
17	BAL	TB 43	4	-4	1:57	Punt
18	TB	TB 38	8	29	4:14	Turnover on downs
19	BAL	BAL 33	12	60	7:08	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 88 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	13/25	157	0	1	1	-9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Peyton Barber	19	85	4.5	1	0.8
Jameis Winston	2	0	0.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	4	9	121	36%	3.9
Adam Humphries	4	6	23	24%	-2.7
Cameron Brate	1	2	9	8%	-0.6
Peyton Barber	2	2	4	8%	-0.7
Jacquizz Rodgers	1	1	1	4%	-0.4
Chris Godwin	0	3	0	12%	-4.7
Ronald Jones	1	2	-1	8%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	9	2	2.0	0
Vita Vea	6	3	0.0	0
Riley Bullough	4	4	0.0	1
Andrew Adams	5	1	0.0	1
Isaiah Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Ryan Smith	3	1	0.0	0
Devante Bond	3	1	0.0	0
Brent Grimes	2	2	0.0	0
Josh Shaw	2	1	0.0	0
Carl Nassib	2	1	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	14/23	131	1	0	2	-0.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Gus Edwards	19	104	5.5	1	5.1
Lamar Jackson	18	95	5.3	0	-3.6
Kenneth Dixon	11	48	4.4	0	-1.1
Chris Moore	1	-5	-5.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Willie Snead	5	6	58	0	29%	3.6
Mark Andrews	2	4	31	0	19%	2.6
Hayden Hurst	3	3	20	0	14%	0.4
John Brown	1	3	9	0	14%	-1.2
Maxx Williams	1	2	6	0	10%	-0.6
Chris Moore	1	1	5	1	5%	1.8
Kenneth Dixon	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.5
Michael Crabtree	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
C.J. Mosley	6	2	0.5	0
Eric Weddle	2	3	0.0	0
Jimmy Smith	3	1	0.0	0
Brandon Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Matt Judon	2	1	0.0	0
Patrick Onwuasor	2	1	0.5	1
Cyrus Jones	2	0	0.0	0
Michael Pierce	2	0	0.0	0
Tavon Young	2	0	0.0	0
Chris Wormley	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -8.5
Closing total: 44.5
TB moneyline: +328
BAL moneyline: -378

Ravens closed -8.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 32 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: TB 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Dirk Koetter vs John Harbaugh