2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

New York Giants

TEN -2.5 ✓U 42 ✓Titans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Tennessee Titans 17–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:30, TEN +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:30TEN — NYG TEN ball · 4th & 10TEN 60%

(11:30) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:30TEN +10% win prob(11:30) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q1 · 5:43NYG +7% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis to NYG 19 for 17 yards (52-A.Ogletree) [54-O.Vernon].
Q3 · 14:22NYG +7% win prob(14:22) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard pushed ob at TEN 41 for 38 yards (28-K.Lewis).
Q1 · 2:47NYG +7% win prob(2:47) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Giants
Offensive plays	64	63
Total yards	302 (edge)	260
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.26
Success rate	47% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	34%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.28
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	3/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

21/44, 229 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.7 expected points added · -16.4% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

12/20, 88 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

33 att, 170 yds, 2 TD

6.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Dion LewisRB

7 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Evan EngramTE

8/12 for 75 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Bennie FowlerWR

2/4 for 43 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 26	10	39	3:35	Turnover on downs
2	NYG	NYG 38	4	2	0:57	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 25	16	70	7:45	Touchdown
4	NYG	NYG 18	9	40	4:04	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 9	6	43	2:17	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 6	10	48	4:51	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 14	7	21	3:29	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 15	4	3	0:53	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 40	7	25	1:22	Punt
10	NYG	NYG 19	8	26	0:47	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 25	11	61	5:57	Interception
12	TEN	TEN 15	7	36	3:36	Punt
13	NYG	NYG 17	3	-2	0:20	Fumble
14	TEN	NYG 14	6	12	2:47	Touchdown
15	NYG	NYG 27	5	7	1:36	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 31	4	2	1:40	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 7	4	8	1:55	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 47	11	54	7:03	Turnover on downs
19	NYG	NYG 24	15	67	3:19	Turnover on downs
20	TEN	TEN 4	3	0	1:47	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 70 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	12/20	88	0	0	1	-3.7
Derrick Henry	1/1	6	0	0	0	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	33	170	5.2	2	6.9
Dion Lewis	7	35	5.0	0	0.9
Marcus Mariota	2	11	5.5	0	-0.3
Blaine Gabbert	3	-1	-0.3	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	3	6	33	30%	2.3
Luke Stocker	2	2	27	10%	2.7
Taywan Taylor	2	5	17	25%	-2.9
Dion Lewis	3	3	9	15%	-1.2
Tajae Sharpe	1	1	6	5%	0.4
MyCole Pruitt	1	2	2	10%	-1.7
Derrick Henry	1	1	0	5%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kendrick Lewis	7	2	0.0	0	1
Adoree' Jackson	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	3	1	1.0	1	2
Rashaan Evans	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jayon Brown	2	1	0.0	0	1
Logan Ryan	2	0	1.0	0	2
Malcolm Butler	1	1	0.0	0	0
LeShaun Sims	2	0	0.0	0	0
Sharif Finch	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kamalei Correa	1	0	1.0	0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	21/44	229	0	1	3	-11.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	14	31	2.2	-4.8
Riley Dixon	1	14	14.0	0.9
Elijhaa Penny	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Evan Engram	8	12	75	27%	-1.2
Bennie Fowler	2	4	43	9%	0.8
Sterling Shepard	2	9	37	20%	-2.8
Russell Shepard	2	4	28	9%	-0.7
Saquon Barkley	4	10	25	23%	-3.9
Jawill Davis	2	2	13	5%	2.5
Corey Coleman	1	2	8	5%	0.7
Rhett Ellison	0	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kareem Martin	4	5	0.0
Curtis Riley	5	1	0.0
Alec Ogletree	5	1	0.0
Michael Thomas	3	2	1.0
B.W. Webb	3	2	0.0
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	3	0.0
Lorenzo Carter	3	1	0.0
Tae Davis	3	0	0.0
Olivier Vernon	2	1	0.0
Josh Mauro	1	2	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -2.5
Closing total: 42
TEN moneyline: -123
NYG moneyline: +112

Titans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 42; the game landed 17 — under by 25.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: TEN 10 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Pat Shurmur