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Tennessee Titans 17, Giants 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:30, 4th and 10, on Ryan Succop — 10.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:30 · 4th and 10
Ryan Succop
Giants
(11:30) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Titans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Tennessee Titans 17–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:30, Giants +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Corey DavisTitansQ1 5:43(5:43) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis to NYG 19 for 17 yards (52-A.Ogletree) [54-O.Vernon].
7.3pts
Sterling ShepardGiantsQ3 14:22(14:22) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard pushed ob at TEN 41 for 38 yards (28-K.Lewis).
7.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Titans165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(11:30) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Swing +10.4 for GiantsExpected points +3.87 for GiantsThe model had Giants 16 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:30TEN +10% win prob(11:30) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
1st · 5:43NYG +7% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis to NYG 19 for 17 yards (52-A.Ogletree) [54-O.Vernon].
3rd · 14:22NYG +7% win prob(14:22) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard pushed ob at TEN 41 for 38 yards (28-K.Lewis).
1st · 2:47NYG +7% win prob(2:47) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:52NYG +7% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis pushed ob at NYG 34 for 11 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
3rd · 11:03NYG +6% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to TEN 19 for 13 yards (56-S.Finch).
3rd · 5:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:47 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:47Derrick Henry·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
4th5:09Ryan Succop·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+317–0
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryGiants
Titans9–0Giants
302Total yards260
4.7Yards per play4.1
47%Success rate29%
38%Third-down rate19%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
9Explosive plays6
20First downs14
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Titans ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Titans: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.26Giants: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Titans: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.25Giants: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Titans: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.28Giants: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 64 snaps at a 34% dropback rate against Giants’s 63 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Giants 2.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TEN's pass rate over expected, −22.0 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −16.6 pts in week 2.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's early-down pass rate, 28.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.7% in week 14 against 65.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 11 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Giants9.1%
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -22.0 pts, 14.3 points below their season mean of -7.7 pts and 2.1 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
53 dressed · 9 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Dennis KellyOT · Every snap100%70 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Full-time96%67 snaps
64Josh KlineG · Full-time96%67 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Full-time96%67 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time93%65 snaps
13Taywan TaylorWR · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
19Tajae SharpeWR · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
33Dion LewisRB · Rotational33%23 snaps
15Darius JenningsWR · Situational21%15 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational21%15 snaps
17Cameron BatsonWR · Situational6%4 snaps
69Tyler MarzOT · Situational4%3 snaps
62Corey LevinG · Situational4%3 snaps
7Blaine GabbertQB · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Matt DickersonDEDarius KilgoDTAaron StinnieGWill ComptonILBBrian OrakpoOLBDavid FluellenRBJeremy McNicholsRBAustin PasztorTCole WickTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis pushed ob at NYG 34 for 11 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
Q1 6:52 · Titans · 3rd & 9 at NYG 45 · gained 11 · +2.17 EP · +10.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 75 yards from the TEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
34%
Yards
561
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.3487%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0739%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2915%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4244%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5440%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
No good11 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Giants 30
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Titans6Giants0
Titans7Giants0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Giants 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Titans 39
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Titans 47
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Giants 48
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 6 to the Titans 42
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 43
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 18
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Giants 35
The period ended11 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Titans 45
3rd quarter40 plays
Intercepted13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Titans 18
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 41
Fumble lost3 plays
Titans13Giants0
Titans14Giants0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 1
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 34
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 33
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Giants 11
Titans17Giants0
Field goal15 plays, from the Titans 47 to the Giants 4
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Titans 4
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -2.5
Closing total
42
Titans moneyline
-123
Giants moneyline
+112
Titans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 42; the game landed 17 — under by 25.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 39°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the north-east; 0.12 in of precipitation; dense drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Titans 10 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Pat Shurmur
TEN +5% win prob
(5:16) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 10 for -7 yards (44-K.Correa). FUMBLES (44-K.Correa) [44-K.Correa], RECOVERED by TEN-99-J.Casey at NYG 15. 99-J.Casey to NYG 14 for 1 yard (78-J.Brown). Officially, a sack for -2 yards.
3rd · 12:46NYG +5% win prob(12:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to TEN 29 for 6 yards (31-K.Byard).
